• How each back performed against stacked boxes: Audric Estim and blake colum They are great at generating aggressive runs even when the defense is ready.
• The most effective back with run concept: See which FBS running back prospects perform better from the concept of running zone and gap schemes.
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of 2024 NFL Draft It's getting closer and closer by the day, and we don't have enough data to fully consider it when evaluating prospects. This article focuses on how this year's top draft prospects performed in key situations, starting with running backs, to help you better understand their use and accomplishments in college. .
We will focus on a number of indicators that are not readily available. PFF Premium Statistics We provide an exclusive detailed breakdown. Some notes:
- This analysis includes only FBS running backs.
- Career attempts are the number of carries each running back has in the specific situations highlighted.
- Rushing grade is each running back's PFF rushing grade within each specific situation.
- Yards per carry is each running back's total rushing yards divided by the number of carries in each particular situation.
- 1DTD rate is the number of times a running back attempts a first down or touchdown within each specific situation.
- Explosive run rate is the number of times a running back ran for 10 or more yards during a play in each specific situation.
- Stuff run rate is the number of times a running back is tackled on or behind the line of scrimmage within each specific situation.
Overall career rush numbers
Starting with the basics, this is an overview of how each FBS running back performed in more general metrics in all situations during their collegiate career.
michigan's blake colum — Expected to be in the top 3 of PFF big board — As highlighted, owns the highest career rushing grade in this class and is one of the best among all running back prospects since 2018 here. Colm isn't the most explosive runner and doesn't stand out with any particular consistent metric, such as missed tackles forced per attempt, but he consistently provides positive runs and makes runs near the line of scrimmage or from scrimmage. I avoid being taken down behind the line.
notre dame cathedral's Audric Estim Your name will appear at the top of many of these lists over and over again. He has performed well on chances and has the highest first down + touchdown rate while maintaining a low stuffed run rate.
Career numbers and stack boxes (8+ defenders)
Here are some promising players who performed well when the defense was playing to protect points conceded. These athletes faced conditions that were not conducive to success, yet produced positive results.
Estime owns the best career rushing performance against an eight-man box among all running backs in this year's draft class and since 2018. His rushing grade and strong explosive running ability are evidence of his ability to create space for himself while limiting negative plays.
Corum once again appeared near the top in overall rushing grade while still posting below-average explosive running. Even though he doesn't have a high playmaking ceiling, his ability to generate positive runs regardless of the situation will be a desirable trait.
texas run back Jonathan Brooks is the top-ranked running back in PFF big board. His sample size is relatively small, as he was a starter in his first year, but there are concerns about how he performed against stacked boxes. His rushing performance is below average, and his cram rate in those situations is the worst in the class.
Career zone run concept number
Inside zone and outside zone runs are the most common rushing concepts in the NFL, so understanding and being able to execute these schemes will be important early in a running back's NFL career.
Estime once again led the group in rushing grade in this category, recording the highest first down and touchdown rates and recording the highest stuffed run rate. In his case “''SleeperThis year's class continues to grow as we learn more about his work.
frank gore junior performs well in PFF's rating system and has a significant workload to back it up. His feel for both zone and gap scheme run concepts is evident in the tape and rushing grade of each.very similar to michiganColm, he lacks big play upside due to speed concerns. He also struggles to generate positive play at the same pace as, say, Colm, so there are a lot of runs that don't go anywhere.
Career gap scheme execution concept number
Counter runs and power runs are the most common gap scheme rushing concepts in the NFL, and differ significantly from typical zone runs in that they are followed by at least one pull blocker toward the point of attack. This often means running backs must show patience and know how to take advantage of holes created by offensive linemen.
Colm is at the top again and has more experience with these gap scheme concepts than anyone else in this class. As a result, he achieved a high success rate and continued to post positive overall results on many of his career touches, regardless of the circumstances.
Oregon's bucky irving He did a decent amount of work in both rush schemes, but was much better in the gap scheme during his college career.
Career goal numbers
Goal-to-go situations are key for fantasy managers. That's where the majority of rushing touchdowns come from. The offense's ability to get into these situations is a big factor, as well as the team's choice of who to field. But in general, how running backs perform in these opportunities is especially telling about how they'll be used going forward.
No running back in this class had more touches near the goal line than Colm, resulting in more career touchdowns (58) than any other back in his class.
troy's Kimani Vidal He performed well in key rushing metrics, enough to place him in the No. 1 spot. Sleeper consideration, however, one of their strengths was not near the goal line. Despite being given many opportunities in goal-to-go situations, Vidal did not utilize his chances as effectively, posting an above-average stuff run rate and a below-average first down + touchdown rate. did.
Career early down (1st and 2nd) numbers
Since first and second downs are where the most rushing attempts occur, it will also be important to identify the players who are most successful on these key rushing downs.
Many of the top names remain the same, including Colm, Irving and Estime. Gore and Vidal also return with above-average workloads and packed run rates.
There are also some other names PFF big boardinclude Jonathan Brooks, Jalen Wright, trey benson and ray davisperformed well on early downs with a strong rush grade.
University of Southern California's marshawn lloyd — 7th ranked running back prospect PFF big board — shows up near the bottom in many of these particular rush categories, and again on early downs. Lloyd's career rushing grade isn't strong compared to this class, and his stuffed 20% run rate doesn't help in that regard. For a player with great speed and explosiveness, the numbers here can be very up and down.
Late career numbers (3rd and 4th place)
While the majority of a running back's job is on early downs, there are still opportunities on later downs, and being able to move the chains on those plays becomes increasingly important for this group.
Jonathan Brooks and marshawn lloyd These critical situations have the lowest first down and touchdown ratios. Although the two sample sizes are relatively small, there is still some concern about the success rate. Brooks is less of a concern considering he had 8.1 yards per carry and the majority of his late-down carries often came in long-range situations.
carrier receiving number
Finally, receiving usage and production is key for any running back class. Because success in this area of the game can increase your chances of getting an every-down roll.
Louisville's Isaac Gerend He has been attracting attention following his impressive combined performance in which he recorded a 40-yard dash time of 4.33 seconds. The small sample of Gerend's work as both a rusher and receiver could be a concern, and while he hasn't performed particularly well in the overall rusher category, at least he performed as a receiver. is promising. Given his speed and limited experience as a starter, he could have a role as a receiving down back in the right situation.
