Fantasy Football: A personnel-adjusted look at the 2024 wide receiver class | Fantasy Football News, Rankings, and Predictions

• Another way to look at yards per route run to identify potential NFL talent. The top runners in terms of running yards for each route are: Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Nabers, Although they remain in the ascendancy, concerns are emerging for companies that have not far exceeded expectations.

• Use historical data to identify potential hits and misses. What do these findings mean for bottom finishers with personnel-adjusted yards per route run? Adonai Mitchell, Keon Coleman and brian thomas jr.?

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One of the most common statistics used when evaluating wide receiver prospects is yards per route run. YPRR is a stable metric not only from college to his NFL years, but also throughout the NFL years. However, like any single metric, his success rate in identifying future NFL stars is not perfect.

As former PFFer Zach Drapkin emphasized a few years ago, now philadelphia eagles organization, Receiving production is often driven by player usage, and one way this can be quantified is by looking at the different personnel groups that receivers run routes with.As Drapkin emphasized here The more wide receivers on the field in 2021, the fewer opportunities there are to command targets and generate yardage.

While this past study focused on the 2020 NFL season, we wanted to see if that also applies to college football. And, as expected, this was true regardless of year and even when he expanded to a three-year sample.

Power Five WR groupings from 2021 to 2023

With these numbers in mind, it's easy to see how wide receivers that are frequently used in certain personnel groups can benefit greatly in YPRR. If a wide receiver spends the majority of his snaps in two-wide receiver sets, then by definition he should produce higher YPRR numbers than receivers in an offense that plays three or more sets over a season or several seasons. 4 wide receiver set.

Interestingly, going back to 2019, the 2024 rookie wide receiver class spent significantly more of its college career with two wide receiver sets than any previous class.

As a result of this large gap, the average HR-adjusted total YPRR for the Class of 2024 was much higher (1.62) than for previous groups. This resulted in a slightly lower deviation of his YPRR from the total YPRR of most top scorers.

Below is a graph highlighting the career-top YPRR numbers for Power Five wide receivers in the 2024 draft class, their projected/personnel-adjusted YPRR numbers, and their deviations from each other. You can then see how well each receiver was able to exceed expectations.

• The touted receiver is expected to be selected within the first three rounds of the 2024 NFL Draft.
• We focus on wide receivers from Power Five conferences to eliminate some of the noise that comes with the level of competition.

• Top YPRR performers often outperform expectations, so ideally their deviation from expected YPRR remains much higher than other companies.
• Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers and troy franklin All are likely to be high picks in the draft, there are no signs of concern here, and they remain in the top four based on how well they have exceeded expectations based on actual and personnel-adjusted YPRR. ing.
• Roma Odunze and Jamari Slash used HR-adjusted YPRR scores to move from outside the top 6 of career YPRR to within it.

The first one to look at is the 2024 wide receiver prospect with the highest projected/personnel-adjusted YPRR as a result of a favorable formation.

• Rudd McConkey is projected to go in the second round and has the highest expected yards per route in this year's class, with most of his usage being on 2-wide receiver and 3-wide receiver looks. He also posted his fifth-best career YPRR numbers among the Power Five wide receivers in this class, but this was helped by the circumstances in his favor.
• Adonai Mitchell He could be a first-round pick in this year's draft and has a high expected YPRR number on a personnel basis, but his total actual YPRR is already low, so overall from actual YPRR and expected YPRR The deviation is at the lower limit.

Next are the receivers who saw the greatest decline from career YPRR rank to deviation rank when considering personnel-adjusted YPRR. Once again, the emphasis is on players expected to be taken within the first three rounds of the 2024 NFL Draft, which will provide important context.

• Worthy's projected YPRR total was the sixth-highest, but once headcount-adjusted YPRR is factored in, it was the largest decline in this year's class.
• McConkey, mentioned earlier as having the highest expected YPRR total in this class, still had a larger deviation value than the other players in this group, but he fell from 5th to 9th in that regard.
• Keon Coleman He is also projected to go to the second round, dropping from the 27th highest YPRR value in this class to 31st when factoring in personnel-adjusted YPRR.

Here, we'll focus on wide receivers who are expected to be drafted within the first three rounds, and show that the hit rate for wide receivers in rounds 1-3 who fail to produce a high deviation compared to the rest of the class is the highest in the NFL. shows how low it is.

Below is a list of wide receivers drafted in the first three rounds since 2019 who failed to break the 75th percentile in deviation/YPRR above expectations, and those wide receivers who at least had a replacement. The question is whether the number of PFF wins exceeds the 75th percentile. They could have started as a quality fantasy asset, as he has once in his NFL career thus far.

• For players who keep score, only 24% of prospects drafted within the first three rounds fail to crack the top 75th percentile of YPRR above expectations.This too chase claypool He topped the 75th percentile in PFF WAR as a rookie, but declined rapidly after that.
• This group also includes many first-round wide receivers who were not able to justify their draft capital. encare harryJalen Rhaegar, Henry Ruggs III.
• The batting average of a wide receiver originally selected in the third round Exceeded the YPRR 75th percentile threshold by more than two times than expected (52%).

With this in mind, here are the 2024 wide receivers with the lowest deviation from projected YPRR to actual YPRR, finishing below the 35th percentile in this class (highlighted by projected wide receivers in rounds 1-3 displayed).

• Adonai Mitchell He stands out as a potential first-round wide receiver among this group and also has one of the smallest differences in career YPRR compared to projected YPRR. This could be seen as a red flag considering the historically low hit rate of first-round wide receivers who fail to significantly exceed his expected YPRR value.
• Keon Coleman and Xavier Leggett Also, he's a potential Day 2 wide receiver who already had an unremarkable career YPRR, so we get some red flags here. This number is a bit of a concern when adjusting personnel.
• Jaylin Polk Ricky Pearsall and brian thomas jr. Rounding out this group is Thomas, who is the only projected first-round wide receiver of the three. Although his deviation score is relatively low compared to other members of the class, his predicted YPRR numbers are also among the lowest in the class, which means he has a higher YPRR number. This indicates that the situation is not very favorable for achieving this goal. He should be considered borderline among this group.

Ultimately, more focus should be placed on wide receivers who underperformed in personnel-adjusted/expected YPRR. That's because players who beat college metrics have a significantly higher success rate in the NFL than players who perform closer to average. This may sound obvious, but evaluators should take into account that these college prospects are still developing, both from a fantasy perspective and from his NFL perspective. is common. This metric helps create even more separation between prospects who are getting ready for the NFL and could become regular fantasy starters for him.

• To summarize, the red flag players in this class are: Adonai Mitchellhad the lowest deviation from actual YPRR to personnel-adjusted YPRR among first- through third-round wide receivers.
• Keon Coleman and Xavier Leggett They shared a similar problem with Mitchell as they were unable to provide a significant deviation from personnel-adjusted YPRR to actual YPRR.
• Although to a lesser extent, Xavier Werty and Rudd McConkey In this class, the two companies had the largest drop in actual YPRR ranking to Deviation/YPRR position above expected: Worthy from 13th to 21st and McConkie from 5th to 9th.