• Rookie Fantasy Football and NFL Draft QB1 caleb williams: of University of Southern California The star quarterback is headed in a great spot to develop his elite playmaking ability.
• Let's see who finishes in the top three in this year's class, following Williams by a close second. jayden daniels and drake may He claims the second (first?) spot among this year's rookie fantasy quarterbacks.
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With the NFL Draft just around the corner and tons of draft content available, it's finally time to solidify some pre-draft fantasy rankings for this year's class.
Starting with quarterback, these dynasty rookie rankings look at each player's college career, production profile, projected draft capital, and personal bias on what we think of these players after watching the tape. Consider and combine everything else to classify them.
Check out some of our other fantasy pieces regarding this year's quarterback class.
1. Caleb Williams, University of Southern California
The favorite to go No. 1 overall in this year's draft is also the top prospect quarterback. Williams brings high-end playmaking ability with his arms and legs, averaging 29.5 fantasy points per game in college and scoring 8.5 points per game with his rushing ability alone.
Williams' scrambling ability will be a key asset as Chicago rebuilds and improves its offensive line. Williams has the longest career average throw time (3.27 seconds) of any quarterback prospect since 2017, which is below his average career sack rate of 6.6%, but at least he won't allow it. You've done a great job. A high turnover-worthy play rate (2.5%) provides the necessary balance to his high-end passing ability.
The future Chicago Bear owns a career PFF passing grade of 91.4 coming out of college, ranking him in the 88th percentile among quarterback prospects from 2017 onwards. His 6.5% big-time throw rate (84th percentile) and ability to scramble out of the pocket and extend plays have been key to his success and should translate to the NFL. Keenan Allen and DJ Moore Reliable for big plays. In addition to a running back with high pass-catching ability, d'andre swift And a reliable tight end Cole Kmet In order to present themselves as a QB-friendly target for rookie quarterbacks, Chicago becomes an ideal landing spot for a young rookie quarterback, even more so as his case becomes a legitimate fantasy asset as soon as he enters the league. Helpful.
2. Jayden Daniels, LSU
The argument to make Daniels the top-ranked fantasy quarterback in this rookie class solely on his rushing talent is very understandable. Daniels played in 55 games in college and averaged 10.9 rushing fantasy points per game. arizona Until the 2023 season when they won the Heisman. LSU. Over the past two years with the Tigers, Daniels has averaged 13.8 fantasy points based on his rushing ability alone, second-best among all quarterback prospects since 2017 behind only the runner-up. lamar jackson (20.5).
What makes Daniels a future star and weekly fantasy starter is that he has a great arm, can make NFL throws, and does a great job of limiting turnover-worthy plays. Daniels' career turnover value play rate of 1.6% is the best of all QB prospects since 2017. Similar to Williams, the biggest area he needs to improve on is his high career sack rate of 7.2%, which is concerning. Considering the low success rates of quarterbacks with high sack rates in the NFL, since 2017, of the 18 quarterback candidates with a career sack rate of 7.0% or less, lamar jackson So far, he's proven to be a legitimate NFL starting quarterback.
Barring being drafted, Daniels is unlikely to land on an offensive line as primed for success as Williams in Chicago. minnesota vikings — but that elite rushing ability should certainly come in handy. All told, Daniels ranks in the 95th percentile of quarterback prospects in missed tackles per attempt (0.31) and in the 96th percentile in yards after contact per attempt (4.05), which is the highest percentage of his That's a very exciting combination for Fantasy when you also factor in his 258 career scrambles (100th percentile) looking back at his college career.
3. Drake May, North Carolina
The most impressive thing about Maye is as a second-year starter. north carolina, he has put together one of the most encouraging collections of passing criteria for quarterback candidates in recent years. This included an 8.2% big-time throw rate (97th percentile) and a 2.1% turnover-worthy play rate (95th percentile). PFF stability metrics Despite not having as many supporting roles as Williams and Daniels these past two years.
While his passing ability is promising, Maye is no shortage of rushing threats, averaging 8.4 rushing fantasy points per game over his career, about the same as Williams (8.5). His 8.3 rushing attempts per game are second only to Daniels in this year's class, and in doing so he showed encouraging rushing metrics, 74th percentile in missed tackles per attempt (0.20) and yards after contact per attempt. ranked in the 88th percentile (3.54).
May also has the highest career average target depth (10.7 yards), highest air yardage rate (61.9%), and highest catchability on throws of 10 yards or more (66.2%) and throws of 20 yards or more among the three. Pass rate (60.8%) downfield. At this point, Maye's draft landing spot is still not set in stone, so it's unclear how much trust we should have in his NFL supporting cast, but he's a career player who has shown he can rise above that situation to a higher level. has already proven himself in the league and should still be considered a legitimate dynasty quarterback asset regardless of where he lands.
4. JJ McCarthy, Michigan
The gap has started to widen a bit after the first three QBs were listed, but McCarthy is still projected to be a top-10 pick in the NFL Draft and has become a common pick. There is. Trade-up goals in mock drafts for minnesota vikings. The Vikings offer some good passing weapons for the rookie quarterback to utilize, making that destination one of the ideal spots for this year's prospect, but there's no guarantee he'll get there. For now, he will. Good old-fashioned university productivity and recognition of potential have earned us this #4 ranking.
One area that really surprised McCarthy when he dug into the data was his deep throw accuracy.come out from michiganHe wasn't asked to throw a ton in his two years as a starter in a run-heavy offense, as his 795 dropbacks are among the lowest numbers in this year's class. But he was at least accurate when he actually threw, ranking in the 99th percentile of prospects since 2017 in overall catchable pass percentage (76.3%) and catchable passes when thrown 10 or more yards downfield. Both ranked in the 96th percentile for percentage (66.7%). Downfield he has 20+ yards (58.9%).
He doesn't have much of an upward trend, which puts him well outside the top three fantasy quarterback options, but he does have a path to fantasy relevance if he can land on the ideal offense: minnesota, where he might throw justin jefferson, jordan addison and TJ Hockenson Regularly.
5. Bo Nix, Oregon
The Knicks' potential draft capital varies widely depending on who you ask, but there's a good chance they'll land in an offense that needs at least a starting QB, or at least a winnable starting QB camp battle. This is not to say that Knicks' fantasy value is dependent on his first-year status as a starter, but it definitely will determine where he goes in a 1-QB fantasy rookie draft. will help you.
There's a lot to like about the Knicks after the transfer. Oregon In 2022, he had a tough start to his career for three years, but he has grown a lot there. auburn. The Knicks were able to improve his career PFF passing grade, which was just his 71.1 before the transfer, to a respectable 85.1 (his 59th percentile since 2017).
But the Knicks' fantasy turnaround isn't all that appealing. Because one of the biggest reasons for that huge growth is that his career average target depth has decreased to just 8.1 yards (5th percentile), sacrificing his big play potential. – Time throw rate is just 4.3% (13th percentile). Placing him at No. 5 on this list comes with the expectation that he has long-term value as a quarterback who can stick around and remain a starter in the NFL, which makes him one of the group's It's for dynasty purposes that gives it a slight advantage over the rest of the players, and I'm not too sure if it fits the names later on the list.
6. Michael Penix Jr. (Washington State)
Penix is getting some Talked about as a first-round candidate But that's far from a guarantee, so it's hard to invest too much in him as a fantasy option at this point. One of the problems for Penix is that he doesn't offer much of a rush turnaround, averaging his 3.1 rushing attempts per game over his six years in college. The scramble was only his 35th.
Helping Penix's case is that he can throw the ball downfield with a strong arm, with a career average target depth of 10.4 yards (73rd percentile) and a big-time throw rate of 6.3% (75th percentile). It made pitching possible. His air yardage rate is 57.1% (76th percentile). He accomplished this while managing the highest sack rate (1.8%) and 96th percentile turnover-value play rate (2.1%) among all quarterback candidates since 2017. These are definitely positives for his chances of being a first-round pick.
But overall accuracy issues, along with him being a work-in-progress prospect with little chance of rising rapidly, prevent him from being a strong fantasy consideration at this point.
7. Jordan Travis, Florida State
8. Spencer Rattler, South Carolina
The best thing is that we were able to smoothly pass the first round with these last two as honorable mentions. Travis gained an advantage over Rattler before landing, as Rattler was clearly the leader. PFF stable indicator categories At the same time, it also provides more rapid upside room. Rattler's projected draft capital (probably Day 2) remains close to that, but while his draft capital and landing spot are still being solidified, his overall profile is strong enough to outperform Travis for now. isn't it.
Travis vs. Rattler (career numbers):
| metric | jordan travis | spencer rattler |
| passing score | 84.7 | 86.1 |
| point | 10.4 | 8.3 |
| Big throw rate | 6.1% | 4.8% |
| Turnover value play rate | 2.8% | 3.3% |
| sack rate | 6.2% | 6.6% |
| rush attempt/game | 7.3 | 4.5 |
| Rush Fantasy Points/Game | 8.9 | 4.1 |
