Fantasy Football 2024: Breakout potential second-year NFL players

The 2024 NFL Draft has produced a ton of exciting rookies who have a chance to make a big impact on fantasy football teams. But just because there are rookies in the player pool doesn't mean there isn't untapped potential in the 2023 class.

Here are six second-year players you can't ignore in your fantasy drafts in 2024. For posterity's sake, we've left out players like Bijan Robinson, Jameel Gibbs and Puka Nacua, all of whom have earned their 2024 ADP within the top two rounds in drafts so far this offseason.

I could have talked a bit about Anthony Richardson here, but considering he was drafted as the QB2 in the most recent Yahoo mock draft, I think it’s pretty unlikely I’d “ignore” him, so instead I’ve decided to shine a spotlight on one of my favorite late-round sleepers.

Revis' rookie season was up and down, but he started well, completing 19 of 29 passes for 238 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions. While those hopes quickly faded (as did the rest of the Titans' offense), there's still reason to be pretty excited about the limited flashes he showed in his rookie season.

Tennessee's front office made a concerted effort to upgrade nearly every aspect of their offense in the offseason, signing C Lloyd Cushenberry (one of the few valuable centers in this free agent class) and selecting OT JC Latham seventh overall in this year's draft. They signed former Cowboys RB Tony Pollard as an explosive piece to pair with second-year RB Tyjay Spears (more on him later!).

Finally, they significantly strengthened their receiver corps by signing free agents Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd to pair with DeAndre Hopkins, and with Treylon Burks likely to play as a WR4, this offense could get a boost.

Revis has an absolute cannon arm and wasn't afraid to show it off as a rookie, leading all QBs with a deep pass rate of 22.4% per PFF. Now that they finally have receivers who can catch deep passes, Revis' fantasy potential could become a reality. Oh, and let's not forget, he also has a pretty nifty combination of size and athleticism that could make him a rushing threat around the red zone akin to Josh Allen.

Forget Kendre Miller's rookie season and pretend it never happened. The third-round draft pick had a rocky start to his career as he spent the offseason and late in the college football season rehabbing an MCL injury. That recovery was complicated by a recurring injury in the preseason, a hamstring injury just before Week 1, and eventually an ankle injury that sidelined him from Weeks 10-17.

Miller's return in Week 18 looked healthy for the first time since his final season at TCU, and fantasy managers got to see his potential for the first time. Miller totaled a season-high 73 yards on 13 attempts, averaging an impressive 5.6 yards per carry. With the perfect combination of explosiveness, agility and slick playmaking ability, he finished the day with a 38% missed tackle rate and an impressive 3.8 yards per post-contact attempt.

Alvin Kamara is coming off a year in which he led all running backs with an average of 6.6 targets per game and should be solid in his role as a receiver, but his efficiency has declined, which could put Miller in a great position to make plays on early downs and, with his current ADP of RB55, he might be worth a late-round pick.

Tyjay Spears, RB, Tennessee Titans

The Tennessee Titans released Derrick Henry in free agency, giving unlimited opportunities to his successor, and many expected second-year running back Tyjay Spears to be the heir apparent, but that hope was quickly dashed when the Titans signed running back Tony Pollard to a three-year, $21.75 million contract in free agency.

What happens if you give up too soon?

Despite the sage advice to “follow the money” when projecting touches at the running back position, I can't help but look back at Spears' efficiency as a rookie and wonder if there's room for both him and Pollard to play roles behind this newly-improved Titans offensive line.

As a rookie (and backup to Derrick Henry), Spears had an impressive 838 scrimmage yards and 3 TDs, ranking 4th among running backs with a 50% snap share and 1.01 fantasy points per touch. Spears was tied with Miami Dolphins running back Raheem Mostert for the lead in that group with a 26% forced tackle missed rate and finished 6th in yards after contact (3.15 per attempt).

Spears may never be a true mainstay in the NFL due to health issues he had coming out of Tulane, but the efficiency he showed in his rookie season should be enough for even the most confident Pollard fan to target Spears in the late draft. He's currently being drafted in the 12th round in 10-team leagues, according to preseason ADP.

The Green Bay Packers offense has taken a surprising leap forward with QB Jordan Love in his first year as a starter in 2023. Fantasy managers are now in the position to analyze their receivers, who are young and noticeably inexperienced, with the Packers currently having the youngest average age in the league (25.2 years old). That inexperience and lack of a true WR1 has allowed Love to distribute targets fairly evenly across the offense, with no player having a target share above 18% in the regular season and postseason combined.

Given Love's performance in Year 1 as a starter, it's not impossible that any of these wide receivers will get 120 or more targets in 2024. If that's the case, fantasy managers would be wise to not invest a ton of draft capital in WRs and instead go for the lowest-cost option: 2023 fifth-round pick Dontaeveon Wicks, who is currently drafted as the 58th WR.

Wicks has never been targeted more than seven times in a game, but his advanced metrics suggest he could receive a larger target share in Year 2. According to PFF, Wicks ranked in the 70th percentile or better among wide receivers in receiving grade (77.0), separation rate (82% open targets), yards per route run (1.94) and yards after the catch per reception (5.3).

Jackson Smith-Njiva's rookie record of 63-628-4 pales in comparison to the record-setting rushing that Puka Nacua put on last year, but don't give up on JSN just yet.

Smith-Njiba had an up-and-down rookie season. His PFF receiving grade of 63.9 and receiving yards average of 10.4 were both sixth-lowest among WRs with 75+ targets on the year. But he wasn't necessarily used in a way that portended an efficient season, tying for the third-lowest aDOT (6.4) among his cohort. Offenses never took full advantage of his skills in the intermediate areas of the field.

So what will be different in 2024? Well, a lot. First, there's the transition to a new coaching staff. The team hired defensive guru Mike McDonald as its new head coach and then hired Ryan Grubb (formerly of the Washington Huskies) as its new offensive coordinator. As analyst Matt Harmon points out, Smith-Njiba could play a more effective role in Grubb's offensive line, something that didn't come to fruition in his rookie year.

With veteran Tyler Lockett entering his age-32 season, Smith-Njiba may see more opportunities to run outside routes. Lockett has been less efficient recently, dropping in yards per reception, yards after the catch per reception and yards per route in each of the past two seasons. As a rookie, JSN ran just 31% of his routes wide versus the slot (69%). This is consistent with his usage at OSU, but there is definitely untapped potential along the perimeter with proven ability in contested catch situations.

Finally, if you need another reason not to give up on JSN heading into Year 2, remember there was a time when he was OSU's best and most productive receiver, playing in the same lineup as superstars Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave.

Dalton Kinkaid is currently drafted as the sixth tight end, but I would argue that's still not good enough based on the opportunities he'll have in the Bills' offense in 2024. Let's not forget, Buffalo didn't just lose Stefon Diggs this offseason (who has accounted for 728 of Josh Allen's 2,612 pass attempts since 2020), they also lost veteran Gabe Davis in free agency, who served as Allen's second-most targeted player (339 times) during that same span.

That puts Kinkaid in an interesting position as one of the few holdovers from last season's receiver corps who played key roles and will bring the rapport he built with Allen into Year 2. As a rookie, Kinkaid has already shown the ability to earn targets, with his 19.3% target rate on route runs good for second on the team behind Stefon Diggs and his 90.1% open target rate good for fourth overall among tight ends (per PFF).

Kinkaid got off to a slow start as a rookie, but finished the year relatively strong, getting five or more targets in each of the Bills' final four games, including the playoffs, averaging just under 69 receiving yards per game during that span. Don't be surprised to see this usage rate rise even further with a potential increased target share. I see his potential as a receiver coming to fruition in 2024.