• Zamir White He continues to be one of the big winners of the offseason. White has a good chance of earning one in 2024 as the Las Vegas Raiders aren't bringing in any major competition for touches.
• Saquon Barkley He will be relied on to handle the load out of the backfield, but that volume disappears in the red zone. Thanks Jalen HurtsBarkley's overall scoring opportunities this season may be limited due to his lack of rushing ability and low usage rate near the goal line.
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Estimated reading time: 7 minutes
Running backs with 300+ carries are a rarity in the modern NFL, but that doesn't mean there aren't some that can be workhorses in a given offense. This article is designed to dig into data on play-calling trends from the previous year to help fantasy managers get a clearer picture of how teams deploy their running backs, especially their top-tier running backs, and help differentiate between potential workhorses and those that are more of a committee player.
Notes about this dataset:
- Data is taken from each team's most recent sample of currently projected playcallers in the same/similar roles (e.g. Klint Kubiak's 2021 season).
- For those without offensive play-calling experience in the NFL, data comes from the most recent coaching trees (such as Chicago's Shane Waldron).
- Only running back carries are considered, excluding quarterback and wide receiver rushing attempts.
- RB1 and RB2 are meant to highlight the average number of carries per week for each team's top running back and are not assigned to specific players but rather to the backs who had the most carries each week.
- The focus here is solely on rushing the touch, not considering the receiving role.
- The percentages are based on a team's rushing opportunities, so they take into account carries by the quarterback and other non-RBs.
- These are not specific predictions – this is based on the most recent usage of each play-caller, so it is expected that offenses will change and evolve – this is only meant as a starting point based on historical trends.
Tier 1: Best options for optimizing RB1 carry volume
- The Saints hired Klint Kubiak as the team's offensive coordinator this season, the first time Kubiak has served as offensive coordinator since the 2021 season. Minnesota VikingsSo the template used is based on that team.
- Alvin KamaraHis rushing productivity and efficiency has declined in recent years, so expect this RB1's usage rate to drop in 2024. He'll still get touches and should remain consistent in the red zone.
- The Raiders relied heavily on Josh Jacobs For most of the past few seasons, Jacobs has been gone, so maybe Zamir WhiteIf those touches are more or less consistent, especially in the red zone, this is a great place for White to thrive.
- Tampa Bay has hired Liam Cohen, previously Tampa Bay's offensive coordinator, as its new offensive coordinator. Los Angeles Rams 2022. The Rams' template for use in 2022 is referenced here, which is a positive change. Ratchad White Should we be consistent?
- Even though the Eagles have a rushing quarterback, they are giving their new RB1 plenty of opportunities. Saquon BarkleyUnfortunately, this significantly reduces the running back's chances in the red zone. Jalen Hurts Dominate those touches.
Tier 2: 65-70% of team carries is often the maximum a fantasy manager can expect from their team's RB1.
- Chicago and Seattle share the same template used here, with Shane Waldron moving over from the Seahawks to be the Bears' new offensive coordinator and Seattle's new coaching staff of Mike McDonald and Ryan Grubb lacking offensive play-calling data.
- Cincinnati and Tennessee also share the same template, with Brian Callahan moving from the Bengals to become the Titans' new offensive coordinator. Dan Pitcher will be the Bengals' new offensive coordinator after previously serving as the team's quarterbacks coach, so Cincinnati will use the same coaching tree template.
- Cincinnati and Tennessee's RB1 usage rates are: Joe Mixon Last year, if that's true, it's a positive usage Zack Moss and Tony PollardUsage.
- Atlanta has Raheem Morris and Zach Robinson Los Angeles Rams How to run the offense in 2024. The Rams’ usage from last year will be used as a template.
- Atlanta's new projected utilization rate is Bijan Robinson Compared to last season, expected team carry rate is up by over 10% and team carry rate in the red zone is over 25%, which may be the biggest difference.
Tier 3: Typical average NFL running back opportunity.
- Commander's use template is based on 2022 Arizona Cardinals Kliff Kingsbury will take over as offensive coordinator, and the team's running backs may see a slight drop in carry rates compared to 2022, given the rushing threat posed by quarterback Jayden Daniels. Kyler Murray.
- New England was one of the most consistent teams in terms of usage of running backs in the red zone last season, and it remains to be seen if that will continue in Bill Belichick's absence.
- Christian McCaffrey While is undoubtedly a workhorse back in today's NFL, these numbers may not accurately represent his usage because he was substituted frequently in big wins and his touches increased overall as the team as a whole was the league's most run-heavy offense last season. San Francisco also utilized its wide receivers as runners. Specifically, Deebo Samuel More than any other team in the league.
- of Detroit Lions He was the team's big RB2 last season, accounting for 31.2% of the team's carries, and that was reflected in the red zone as well. David Montgomery (64%) took the lead, Jameel Gibbs (46%) is not far behind.
- Another team that gives RB2 a big chance is 2023. Atlanta Falcons (35.4%) and is now being used as a template for the Steelers. Najee Harris (52%) Jalen Warren (31%) already have shared carries in 2023, and things might not get any better under Arthur Smith in 2024.
Tier 4: Below average RB1 usage
- Together Los Angeles Rams The addition of Mike LaFleur as offensive coordinator could change how the team uses its running backs this season. New York Jets It's used as a template here, and considering the team drafted Blake Corum in the third round this offseason, his usage rate might not be as bad as it could be. Kylen Williamswe should expect a decline from his ideal situation at least in 2023 ( Atlanta Falcons On top of that).
- of Cleveland Browns Assuming it's unlikely that the price will reach the bottom again Nick Chubb Healthy. With him out for most of last season, the team shared the load among its running backs, but Chubb will almost certainly get more touches if he's healthy.
- of Baltimore Ravens His RB1 usage rate should also increase. Derrick Henry This offseason, Henry's biggest rival is Lamar Jackson In 2023, he accounted for 27% of the team's total carries.
- The Chargers hired Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman to lead the offense this season, so the 2022 Ravens numbers are being used as a template. The Ravens were the league's most run-heavy team in 2022, but this is Lamar JacksonThe team's running back carry percentage is Justin Herbert They offer only a limited rushing threat. Looking solely at carry opportunities for the Ravens' running backs in 2022, the RB1 is at a relatively high 61.2% and the RB2 is at a relatively high 32.2%.
Overall team and red zone run rate
Finally, looking at each team's trends in terms of overall run rate and run rate after entering the red zone gives us an idea of what the reference data looks like.
** = Different team data than in 2023 due to new coaching staff
