Euro 2024 Soccer Best Bets – Quarter Finals:
Let's take a look at my best bets for the quarter-final round of Euro 2024.
Spain vs Germany
Friday, 12:00 PM ET
The quarter-finals of the European Championships kick off on Friday afternoon with a fantastic match, arguably the two most highly-anticipated teams in the tournament, and the only two countries to have ever won the championship three times.
Both teams headed to Stuttgart on unbeaten records but only Spain had won all four of their matches in Germany, edging out Georgia 4-1 to comfortably reach the quarter-finals, having already achieved the incredible feat of qualifying for the knockout stage.
Luis de la Fuente's side conceded their first goal of Euro 2024 in this round of 16 match, the result of a deflected Robin Le Normand cross that was not scored by their opponents. In their last 14 international matches, they have only conceded multiple goals once and have not conceded any in their last 12, keeping seven of them clean sheets.
Germany didn't look very convincing in their win over Denmark, they needed some good fortune but still managed a 0-0 victory, and Jonathan Tah will be a big asset when he returns from suspension to partner Antonio Rüdiger.
Depending on the results of other matches, the winner of this match could very well be the favourite to win. It's hard to predict the outcome, but judging by the odds, I expect Germany to advance at around -106. This will surely be a tense, careful and competitive match.
Therefore, odds of -120 under 2.5 goals look very good value, a bet that would have come true in six of the last seven meetings between the two nations.
Euro 2024 best bet: -120 under 2.50 goals.
Portugal v France
Friday, 03:00 PM ET
On paper, it's another intriguing quarter-final matchup. Sorry to offend, but this one just doesn't look like it's going to be a thriller.
Scoring records were expected to be set in this tournament and it started out that way, with 34 goals in the first round matches for an average of 2.83, but by the end of the group stage that average had dropped to 2.25, exactly the same as in the last 16 matches.
Eight of the 12 first group matches saw bettors on 2.5 goals or more win money. That number dropped to four in the second set matches, and just two matches saw three or more goals on the third day of play. Of the eight round of 16 matches, five saw bettors on 2.5 goals or less win money, with the three that exceeded our expectations being exactly what we expected.
Here you need to bet on under 2.25 goals, which means half your stake on under 2.5 and the other half on under 2.0. If there is one goal or less, you win the whole amount. If there are two goals, you cash out half your stake and get the other half back. You can only lose if there are three or more goals.
Portugal have had the most solid defense in the qualifiers, conceding just two goals in 10 games, but their attack has struggled in the tournament and their tactics seem more focused on what Cristiano Ronaldo wants rather than what's best for the team.
Their captain has taken 20 shots at Euro 2024 but is yet to score, missing a penalty in extra time in a 0-0 draw with Slovenia in the round of 16. He's taking every free kick and shooting from ridiculous positions. His time is rapidly coming to an end and his frustration is clear for all to see.
He's not going to get much out of a stubborn France defence, especially William Saliba, who has shown he is one of the best defenders on the planet right now and coach Didier Deschamps has seen his team keep five clean sheets in their last six international matches, including two penalties scored by Poland in their final group game here.
However, their overall performance in the tournament was disappointing, with just three goals scored – none of which came from open play by their own players – a penalty scored by Kylian Mbappé against Poland and own goals in 1-0 wins against Austria and Belgium.
These two nations are able to cancel each other out, as they have done in four of their last five meetings – two of which ended in 0-0 draws and two which ended in 1-0 victories for France.
Euro 2024 best bet: Under 2.25 goals, -136.
England v Switzerland
Saturday 12:00 PM ET
Yet another England game ended with an England win, sparking yet more criticism, yet England are still clearly more likely to win on July 14th, with a 275% chance of doing so.Number.
There's no denying England's terrible performance at Euro 2024, with a safety-first manager presiding over an inconsistent team that seems to lack confidence (except for one or two players). England were 60 seconds away from being eliminated against Slovakia before Jude Bellingham scored a stunning, acrobatic goal.
But I'm still backing Gareth Southgate and his team to win, and not just because I'm a proud Brit who will be cheering on my team from the stands at the Merkur Spiel Arena, in Dusseldorf and hopefully beyond. In fact, there are four reasons why this is a great bet.
Firstly, England couldn't have played worse. They topped their group after three poor performances, scoring with their first shot on goal in the 95th minute against Slovakia to take the game to extra time.Number One minute, they somehow manage to keep getting things done while struggling to get it in gear.
Marc Guehi's suspension will be a blow, but another forced substitution could finally bring some much-needed balance. Kieran Tripper has been struggling with a calf injury and was substituted in the 66th minute in the last game. With Bukayo Saka dropping to left-back and Cole Palmer at right-back, England have started to play much better. If Southgate starts that way, or is forced to, then hopefully we'll see a much improved performance from England on Saturday.
Confidence, mindset, belief and tournaments change from moment to moment. Big-game players thrive when the going gets tough. Who else? Jude Bellingham shouted after his incredible stoppage-time goal.
From the brink of elimination to three games away from winning their first major title in nearly 60 years, this group of players will start to believe that this is their destiny. The fact that Harry Kane scored 54 seconds into extra time underlines that point. Give him a chance and he will usually score. With 14 goals to his name in major tournaments, he is the most of any English player, although only four Europeans have done better than him.
Finally, and most importantly, England are very good value in my book at +125. Switzerland have punched above their weight in this tournament and are a well-organised team with a consistent squad that is performing at their best as a team.
Murat Yakin's England side are not a scoring powerhouse so this will be another tough match. England have only scored over 2.5 goals in two of their last 11 international matches, but they have done so in two of their last 10 matches, so it is no surprise that odds on under 2.5 goals are higher at around -200.
Close matches are usually decided by winners and game-changing players. England have the advantage in that regard, both in their starting XI and on the bench. If this was the opening match of the tournament, England would be -163. I think traders are overreacting.
Euro 2024 Best Bets: England Moneyline +125.
Netherlands vs Türkiye
Sunday, 3pm ET
The final quarter-final looks to be the most interesting of the four matches, which is why I was a bit surprised to see odds of over 2.5 goals available at very supportable prices.
After a disappointing group stage in which they finished third behind Austria and France, the Netherlands produced their best performance of the tournament, beating Romania 3-0. In fact, they should have scored more goals.
With Cody Gakpo, Memphis Depay, Xavi Simons and the attacking firepower of Denzel Dumfries, this team will give any team a tough time. Steven Bergwijn started against Romania, making his first appearance at Euro 2024. Donyell Malen, who was substituted at half-time, scored two goals.
This marks just the fourth time the Netherlands have covered that line alone in just eight international matches this year, with seven of those matches coming with a prize of 2.5 goals or more at stake.
The round of 16 tie between Turkey and Austria was a brilliant one from the first minute onwards, with Merih Demiral scoring the opening goal after just 57 seconds – the fastest ever recorded in a European knockout round.
What unfolded can only be described as chaotic – and not the first time in a match involving Vincenzo Montella's team. This could be partly because the game was played in an incredible atmosphere, given the large Turkish population living in Germany. It will be another heated spectacle and Dutch fans will not hesitate to party in the stands.
Mert Gunok made the best save of the tournament in the final seconds against Austria with defenders rising up in front of him, but despite his best efforts Turkey conceded in all four games in Germany and all ticket holders with more than 2.5 goals conceded.
With their opponents struggling with fatigue and missing key players through suspension, the Netherlands are expected to be unlikely to advance, but the game is certainly a winnable one by more than 2.5 goals.
Best bet for Euro 2024: -125 over 2.5 goals.
