ESPN's ACC football predictions are unfavorable for UC

ESPN and CBS Sports Several predictions were released this week for the 2024 Atlantic Coast Conference football season. Both projections have UC finishing the season near the middle of the pack and with a chance to win the overall championship.

ESPN's ACC preview Packed with charts and graphs, the rating system projects UC to finish 10th in the 17-team ACC and have a 1.3 percent chance of winning the ACC title, but a 64.9 percent chance of winning at least six games in a 12-game schedule.

ESPN broke down ACC teams into three categories in their preview.

— 1. Conference title (and CFP) contenders:

That group included two schools.

Florida

Clemson

—2. Take a short break from running

The group included seven schools.

Miami

SMU

Louisville

North Carolina

Virginia Tech

Duke

North Carolina

—3. Looking for a way to 6-6

That group included the remaining eight schools.

Cal

Georgia Institute of Technology

Syracuse

Boston College

Virginia

Wake Forest

Pittsburgh

Stanford

This is ESPN had this to say about Cal::

Head Coach: Justin Wilcox (8th year, overall record 36-43)

Predictions for 2024: 52nd in SP+, 6.1 wins average (3.5 in ACC)

California fooled me about four times last year. Justin Wilcox's Golden Bears, who went 10-18 over the past three seasons, boasted one of the best running backs in the country (Jaden Ott) and a solid defense that forced a ton of mistakes and turnovers. They started the season 3-2, then lost four straight games despite scoring staggering 40, 14, 49, and 19 points. They needed to win their final three games to get to their first bowl game in four years, but they beat UCLA in a 33-7 landslide victory. Then they didn't show up in the Independence Bowl, losing by 20 points to Texas Tech. It was basically a season that mirrored Wilcox's entire shaky tenure at Cal: up, down, up, down, etc.

But when they're good, they're a very interesting bunch, with their best offensive players back: Ott, big-play slot man Tron Grisel and three big-bodied linemen. Wilcox has also been very aggressive in the portal, adding some talented Group of Five and FCS starters (North Texas quarterback Chandler Rodgers, ODU running back Kadarius Callaway, NMSU receiver Jonathan Brady and FCS All-American lineman Rush Reimer) along with some unproven former blue chippers like receiver Kaion Gray (Ohio State). Between Rodgers and sophomore Fernando Mendoza, they should have a good QB. And Ott is great.

After four straight years of ranking in the top 30 in defensive SP+, Cal's defense fell apart, ranking 79th in 2022 and 84th in 2023. Mistakes are punished with turnaways, but the Bears were horribly inefficient (121st in success rate allowed). They only had turnovers. Seven starters return (eight, including injured tackle Ethan Sanders in 2023), and sophomore linebacker Cade Uruabe could be a star (cornerback Le'Magia Hearns III is good, too). But if the defensive rebound is coming, it will likely come from FCS transfers like cornerback Marcus Harris (Idaho) and linebacker Liam Johnson (Princeton). A good offense could get even better, but a sliding defense might not.

Favorite player: RB Jadon OttPowerful runner with home run ability. Good sprinter, with more rushes of 10+ yards (32) than losses (26). When he's on a roll, nothing else matters. When he averaged 6.0+ yards per carry, Cal averaged 47.3 points per game. When he wasn't, the Bears averaged 21.6 points.

CBS Sports announces predictions Will UC surpass the over/under of 6.5 wins? Different betting sites have different over/under win lines for UC. Fan Duel has the Bears at a pessimistic 5.5 wins. Draft Kings and Caesars Sportsbook have the over/under for UC at 6 wins, while BetMGM has the Bears at 6.5 wins.

Based on this commentary and their projections for seven games the Bears are expected to win and four ACC games Cal is expected to win, CBS Sports is advising you to bet “over” on the Bears' over/under line of 6.5 wins.

6.5 or more wins

victory: University of California, Davis, San Diego State University, University of Pittsburgh, Oregon State University, Wake Forest University, Syracuse University, Stanford University
loss: Auburn University, Florida State University, University of Miami, North Carolina State University, SMU

analysis: The range of possible outcomes seems to be 6-6 to 8-4, so it was surprising to see 6.5 wins offered at a premium after the initial tally. The Bears have deep roster, but what's special in 2024 is their offense. Not only do they return running back Jaden Ott, who was named to the Pac-12 Conference first team last season, but the additions of Mikey Matthews (Utah) and Tobias Meriweather (Notre Dame) improve the passing options. Two of the closer games on the schedule (NC State and Syracuse) have opponents flying across the country, which is a plus, but UC will face its own travel demands that will be monitored on a week-to-week basis. 6.5 and above (+142)