One of the key dates on the preseason schedule has arrived, as the ESPN College Football Power Index computers have compiled and released their 2024 preseason college football rankings.
The Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model is a measure of team strength that predicts a team's future performance.
Rankings and score projections are based on 20,000 simulations of team seasons and games, combining key analytics such as previous scores, opponent quality, team talent, recruiting and team schedule.
Teams are not ranked by talent, as in other rankings. Expected points difference per match Play against average teams on a neutral field.
FPI projects the Mustangs to win 8.3 games this season, their first as a post-realignment ACC member, and have a 16.6% chance of making an appearance in the expanded College Football Playoff.
Jedd Fisch is leaving to coach at Washington, but quarterback Noah Fifita and wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan are back to keep the offense going and projected to win 7.9 games in contention for an expanded Big 12 title.
With arguably one of the most improved offensive lines in college football thanks to successful transfer portal signings including quarterback Cam Ward, wide receiver Sam Brown and tailback Damien Martinez, Miami is projected to win 8.2 games and has a 9.9% chance of winning the ACC Championship.
The loss of quarterback Will Howard shouldn't hurt too much considering the Wildcats have dual-threat Avery Johnson back under center. The Wildcats will pair Colorado transfer Dylan Edwards with DJ Giddens, who threw for over 1,200 yards and 10 touchdowns last year. KSU is rated 8.4 points per game in the FPI.
Jeff Brohm secured another big transfer class this offseason after losing the big-time player who led the Cardinals to the ACC title game last year, with Tyler Shaw starting at quarterback and former Alabama wide receiver JaCorey Brooks hitting home runs. FPI has Louisville at 7.9 wins this season.
The pressure is on for coach Billy Napier as he enters his third year with a sub-.500 record overall and in the SEC, doesn't appear in the official rankings and faces one of the toughest schedules in college football nationally. FPI projects the Gators at just 5.9 wins and a 0.7 percent chance of winning the SEC.
Hugh Freeze led the Auburn team to six wins in his debut last year behind one of the SEC's least productive passing attacks. Payton Thorne returns to lead the team, but Freese will look to strengthen his wide receiver corps and five-star recruit Cam Coleman is vital to that project. The FPI has the Tigers at 7.2 wins.
With Caleb Williams out and Miller Moss stepping in at quarterback after making a good first impression in the bowl game, the real question is whether Danton Lin can do the same thing against USC's defense that he did against UCLA last year as the Trojans look to join the Big Ten Conference, with FPI projecting 7.1 wins here.
There's good news and bad news for the Jayhawks' offense. Coordinator Andy Kotelnicki will be out, but dynamic quarterback Jaron Daniels should return after missing most of last season with injury. Another obstacle for Kansas is playing home games in Kansas City, where a new stadium is currently under construction. FPI projects Kansas at 8.7 wins this season.
They're a true contender from the SEC with an eye on an expanded playoff with returners like quarterback Jackson Dart, transfers like tailback Henry Parish and pass rushers Walter Nolen and Princely Umanmillen. FPI projects Ole Miss to win 7.9 games, which is on the low side in our view.
Dabo Swinney's teams missed the College Football Playoff the past three seasons, in part because his offense lacked a game-changing wide receiver. Until that wide receiver is found, Cade Klubnick won't be able to thrive in Garrett Riley's offense. What about Clemson's defense? It remains top-notch and should keep this team in contention for the ACC title.
Mike Elko took over as head coach after the untimely end of the Jimbo Fisher era and brings experience in reviving underachieving programs, as he did at Duke. Transfers such as Nick Skorton, last year's Big Ten sack leader, and former Gators linebacker Scooby Williams are key members of a front seven that lost many players. FPI projects the Aggies to win 7.6 games this fall.
FPI projects the Tigers to win 7.9 games this season and have a 25.3% chance of making the College Football Playoff, but first new coordinator Blake Baker will need to significantly improve a defense that ranked 118th nationally last year, and Garrett Nussmeyer will replace Jayden Daniels at quarterback.
The defending college football national champions have undergone major structural changes, including a new head coach and the entire roster, but they also have some important continuity back. Head coach Sherrone Moore is a proven talent within the program, and key defensive starters like cornerback Will Johnson return, but questions remain at quarterback and on the offensive line. FPI has the Wolverines at 8.3 wins.
Changes at quarterback, wide receiver, defensive end and linebacker will keep coach Mike Norvell busy in the preseason, but there are plenty of transfer and rookie options. Most importantly, former Clemson and Oregon State quarterback DJ Uiagalelei, who posted a career-best 100 yards per game last season. The Noles have an 8.8 win average, according to FPI.
Brady Cook returns at quarterback and Luther Burden and Theo Wease should be one of the top 1-2 wide receiver duos in college football, but the loss of defensive play-caller Baker and other on-field personnel on the defensive side of the ball, including three key backfield defenders, are concerns. Otherwise, FPI projects Missouri to win nine games against a winnable schedule.
Niko Iamareva will be the Vols' QB1 after a strong performance in the bowl game, and he'll be backed by tailback Dylan Sampson and a strong front seven unit, as well as an experienced line and receivers. But how well will Tennessee's secondary replace the players who have departed? FPI projects the Big Orange with 8.6 wins and a 37% chance of making the playoffs.
SEC schedule writers haven't been as lenient with the Sooners ahead of their conference debut this fall, and they'll face a tough test with an all-new offensive line protecting young quarterback Jackson Arnold. But OU's defense has made strides and they have experience back in center field. The FPI gives Oklahoma an 8.2 chance to win and a 36.6 percent chance of making the playoffs.
It's the first double-digit win projection in the ESPN rankings, and the index projects the Fighting Irish to win 10.1 games and have a 59.1 percent chance of making the College Football Playoff with key transfers such as quarterback Riley Leonard and wide receiver Beau Collins.
Drew Aller has struggled to establish a consistent passing game downfield and is currently working on replacing his offensive line, but he has star backs Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton and wide receiver Julian Fleming, a transfer from Ohio State, to fill in for pass-catcher Ke'Andre Lambert-Smith.
FPI projects the Crimson Tide at 9.3 wins as they finally navigate their post-Nick Saban future with a 14.4% chance of winning the SEC championship, third in the league, and a 57.2% chance of making the playoffs, backed by the return of Jalen Milroe at quarterback, a strong ground game and a promising front-seven rotation.
The FPI doesn't rank the Buckeyes as the favorite to win an expanded Big Ten title or make the College Football Playoff. The index projects 10.2 wins for Ryan Day's squad, which is lavish with top-tier transfers at key positions and returning veterans, especially up front on defense.
Texas is in good timing heading into the SEC, coming off a Big 12 title, their first playoff appearance and a solid lineup with Quinn Ewers returning at quarterback behind a strong line and a transfer wide receiver to help run the offense. But it's a tough schedule and the secondary needs repairs. FPI projects Texas at a 24.2% chance of winning 10 games and the SEC title.
Dillon Gabriel and Evan Stewart are key transfers at quarterback and receiver, respectively, and are important additions to a Big Ten-bound Ducks team that already features physical play on both sides of the line. Oregon is the FPI favorite to compete for the B1G title, with a 37.5% chance of winning the league and a 10.8 overall win probability, which are currently the highest in the index.
Kirby Smart has rotated defensive personnel better than anyone in college football, and his team returns six expected starters and adds nine more on offense. Carson Beck returns under center and the team has elite skill threats on the perimeter at back and receiver. FPI projects the Bulldogs to win 10.3 games and have a 79.1% chance of making the playoffs.
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