Well, it was fun!
The past few years have been a somewhat quiet free agency period, but 2024 will see a series of big moves. As always, there are many winners and losers. I'm here to analyze some of the most notable impacts.
You all know this drill very well, so I won't bore you with any further explanation. Below are some of the NFL offseason trades and how I react to each one. If you have any questions about players not listed, please leave a comment below. I'll be sure to answer.
As always, the dynasty trade analyzer and player ranking data referenced comes from DynastyLeagueFootball (DLF), the oldest and largest dynasty-centric site on the planet.
Value Status: Rising
Saquon Barkley signs with Eagles
Meanwhile, the 27-year-old running back will face more competition for touches than ever before while in New York. On the other hand, the quality of his touch should also improve. Both Barkley and Jalen Hurts could dilute each other's productivity here, but I still believe he will push toward a career year.
What I do: I keep it. The rookie pick fee is close to 1.06, so if I can get it closer to 1.08 I'll take him, but it probably won't be enough to lure him away from an established manager.
Josh Jacobs signs with Packers
Jacobs never placed any special value on his dynasty. His contract, and the subsequent release of Aaron Jones by the Packers, is a win-win for everyone involved.He will definitely be a mainstay in the backfield, and he should have little trouble recording a RB1 season in his age-26 season.
What I do: Buy! Jacobs is currently valued at $1.09 in 2024 rookie selection compensation and is at the peak of his career. I'm willing to go late-first in this draft and get a running back with a few years left and a three-down profile.
Zack Moss signs with Bengals
Similar to what happened from the 2024 free agency period, it appears Moss could be the Bengals' new starter. Chase Brown may lose out on this move, but the two will likely form a committee with Moss as the platoon leader.
What I do: I keep it. Even if his rookie selection value in 2024 is 3.08, I'm not excited about acquiring him. Alternatively, if he's already on your roster, his return value isn't enough to consider a trade. That said, Moss opened some eyes when he replaced the injured Jonathan Taylor, and there's enough intrigue here to keep me interested.
Marquise Brown signs with Chiefs
Brown's value hasn't adjusted significantly since he was signed in Kansas City. Let's take advantage of that market apathy. When you combine his 2024 rookie selection value of 3.02 with the Patrick Mahomes effect, he's definitely a great buy.
What I do: Buy. I was never a big fan of Brown, but he caught my attention during his final year in Baltimore (2021) before moving on to the Cardinals. Quarterback quality is a key determining factor in receiver production, and he's currently in the penthouse.
Darnell Mooney signs with Falcons
Mooney is rising on my board due to a combination of offensive prowess and the presence of quarterback Kirk Cousins who can take advantage of his talents. The Falcons have quietly had a great offseason, and Mooney is a great fit to jump over the pattern or take over the top from the secondary.
What I do: Buy. Considering the value of a third rookie selection in the second half of 2024, acquiring Mooney shouldn't be difficult. I don't expect it to be a big year, but he will carry the role and offense for a potential upward campaign.
Value status: Declining
Kirk Cousins signs with Falcons
The 36-year-old veteran leaves proven production in the rearview mirror in search of a better contract and a lot of unproven upside to the talent around him. There's a level of excitement about Atlanta's commitment and it appears to be on track, but there's little chance Cousins will maintain his value in 2023 without Justin Jefferson.
What I'm doing: While his ranking is going down in dynasty format, I still want to get him if the price is right. He currently rates as a mid-third round rookie selection in 2024 in the single QB format, with a near 1.09 superflex. He still has the QB1 advantage.
Justin Fields traded to Steelers
Perhaps the most shocking development was that Fields had no suitors. Ultimately, he's going to be in a turnaround situation and it's a pretty even bet that he'll be available under center by Week 8.
What I'm doing: Considering his 2024 rookie selection fee, Fields still has early second-round value in a single QB format. That's too expensive! Interestingly, SuperFlex is only slightly more expensive and much more interesting. I would only consider acquiring him on a super flex at his current value, but I'm not going to kick down the door to get a deal done.
Derrick Henry signs with Ravens
The 30-year-old running back is only going in one direction: down. That being said, Henry's deal in Baltimore couldn't have been more perfect for everyone involved. All signs point to the plus-size runner potentially having a few productive years left, and I wouldn't bet on him in this situation.
What I do: If it's competitive, I buy it. An early second-round rookie pick in the 2024 draft, Henry would be an interesting addition to a competitive dynasty team and a valuable addition to a rebuilding team. There's something for everyone here.
Tony Pollard signs with Titans
With Ezekiel Elliott's departure, turnaround running back play in 2023 is unlikely, and Dynasty managers are holding hands and selling. I don't blame them. Pollard settles into a new range at a value close to his 2024 rookie salary of 1.11.
What I do: I keep it. The real impact of signing Pollard is on 2023 rookie running back Tejay Spears. Pollard still has plenty of runway for production and could be an interesting acquisition, but I'd rather pay him a second round instead.
Tjay Spears' balloon pops
This stings. Spears had the runway, setup, and production profile to make a big splash in 2024. Rather, he's the latest poster boy for why dynasty managers can't add premium to most running backs. The addition of Pollard begins another year of committee assignments and reduces the value of Tennessee's all-backs.
What I do: I keep it. I expected Spears to start as a front-runner in 2024, but his 2024 rookie pick return value of 2.01 is currently far too expensive to consider. Depending on the draft status of the 2024 rookie running back, we may consider selling at this price.
The decline of Brian Robinson
Robinson has primarily been a starter in the NFL. But with the manager's acquisition of Austin Ekeler, there is no question of a committee in place.
What I do: Sales. With his age-25 season and rookie selection value of 2.03, I'd rather move on from Robinson and reload on one of the 2024 rookie running backs. I don't want too many veteran players on my roster that “could be.”
Roshon Johnson's valuable torpedo was struck.
That huge sucking sound is Johnson's value after the Bears signed D'Andre Swift. I think there's potential for a patient dynasty manager here since he's only 23 years old and his profile in the NFL is on the rise.
What I do: Buy. With a rookie pick value of 2.10 in 2024, Johnson has enough value to test the trade market. Most of the top rookie runners will have left by then, and if I can take advantage of a disappointed Coach Johnson, I will acquire him at his current value.
Calvin Ridley signs with Titans
I had high hopes for Ridley in 2023, and while he had a satisfying season, he was very inconsistent. Now in Tennessee, he will have a hard time replicating his 2023 production.
What I'm doing: He's a depth-based acquisition target for contending teams only. He has a rookie selection value of 1.11, so I think he would be difficult to get at that price. There are upsides here, but the siren call of a rookie selection in this deep class makes it more likely that Ridley will be acquired in a player-swap trade instead.
Value status: pending
D'Andre Swift signs with Bears
What we don't know is how the Bears envision using Swift. He proved he can stay healthy in 2023 and is a dynamic force with the ball in his hands. I think he's going to see a lot of receiving, and there's a good chance he'll match or exceed his 229 carries in Philadelphia last season.
What I do: I keep it. There's too much risk in the role considering his 2024 rookie selection value of 1.10. He's a good value, but it's too much of a gamble to buy or sell him before you know how he'll be used.
Gus Edwards signs with Chargers
As for Edwards, like Moss above, beauty is in the eye of the beholder. In fact, you can copy and paste my Zack Moss story and apply it to Edwards.
What I do: I keep it. It's hard to believe the Chargers won't add another veteran in the draft. As it stands, Edwards appears to have a big workload ahead of him, and if he does well, he could potentially stay in RB3 territory.
Gabe Davis signs with Jacksonville
If the team had been able to keep Calvin Ridley, I would have ranked him higher than Davis in Jacksonville. As it stands, Davis will compete with Christian Kirk for the WR1 target, but while I'm excited about his experience at just 25 years old (April 1st), I'm still looking forward to his experience as a consistent producer. I'm not that confident in my abilities. .
What I'm doing: If I can get Davis with a mid-to-late third round rookie selection, I'm done. However, for something more premium, I prefer having another manager register the risk profile. I've always liked Davis ceilings, but I'm not sure this change of scenery is the answer.
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As always, be happy, be well, and be good to each other!
(Top photo of Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports)
