I finally decided to focus on the format of my annual 2024 Rookie Draft Strategy article and give my SuperFlex brothers and sisters a bone. We will have a section at the end to adjust the quarterback rankings for players in the 1QB format, but every coach understands that most names are safe to kick back at least 1 his round. doing.
The NFL combine is in the plans and most are currently in a holding pattern heading into the draft at the end of April. Every season is unique in relation to the incoming rookie class, its value, depth, and the value of the picks that make up the rookie draft. There's a lot to figure out at this time of year, and fantasy managers have multiple options depending on their team's competitive level.
Let me explain more about this class and my current strategy. As always, the ranking data referenced comes from DianatyLeagueFootball (DLF), the oldest and largest dynasty-centric site on the planet.
Depth of Class of 2024
I'm not going to spend too much time discussing the depth of the 2024 class. Overall, it's great. There's so much quality at the quarterback and wide receiver positions, and the depth is greater than we've seen in recent history. At tight end, they don't have a lot of depth, but that's par for the course as long as they see two good prospects.
The running back class is a weakness in 2024, but if there was a position that would be desirable as a weakness, it would be this one. A class with weak running backs is not the same as a class with weak receivers. Prospects from lower picks have the potential to perform and develop into the future to a greater degree than their receivers, becoming great dynasty assets.
When evaluating the depth of the SuperFlex format, if you can get 8-10 players by the third tier, that's solid depth. As you can see below, in 2024 it's even deeper than that.
2024 SuperFlex Rookie Rankings (tiered)
Not set in stone, but as I continue to watch tape and adjust values, here are the players currently occupying my first three tiers.
I'm 15 deep to tier 3, which is great. In fact, if you look at some of the players occupying tier 4, you could argue that some will appear in tier 3 instead. One of the issues with ranking SuperFlex players is the premium attached to quarterbacks. Quarterbacks in the lower tiers will be ranked higher depending on the value of their position. This can skew positions other than quarterback. I don't want to elevate quarterbacks to a higher tier than I think they're valued at, which often results in non-quarterback players dropping to the next lowest tier.
My tiers 4 and 5 are:
In the SuperFlex format, Bo Nix should be moved above Troy Franklin and Keon Coleman for ranking purposes because of quarterback priority. But really, I view his two receivers as Tier 3 candidates. For this reason, tiers are less important than player rankings within their respective positions. Players at the bottom of the upper tier or at the top of the lower tier can be ignored to some extent.
Rounding out my rankings are the Tier 6 rankings.
As is often the case with lower-tier players, I still have tape to review and won't work on some players until I can overlay their draft status post-NFL Draft.
Looking at the tiers, I'm 15 tiers deep through 3 tiers, but realistically it's 17 tiers if you include Franklin and Coleman. In fact, even as I research her 25 players up to Tier 4, I'm excited to see the names and continue to be very impressed with the depth of this class. Jaylin Polk, Jalen McMillan, Ricky Pearsall, and Ja'Tavion Sanders all have high ceilings and could be heavily impacted by a solid draft situation, especially paired with a plus-level veteran quarterback.
I have looked at this hierarchy objectively many times, and it is exactly as I expected, and the depth of this class is astounding. That being said, what is his strategy approaching his SuperFlex draft in 2024? Glad you asked!
2024 SuperFlex Draft Strategy
The deep draft class has something for everyone. As usual, strategy depends largely on the team's level of competition. Before we move on, I'd like to insert a note about the value of known (productive) and unknown (draft pick) assets. It may be difficult to resist the call of a recruit, but historically selection comes with risks.
How this draft plays out will largely be determined by the quarterback. Early Pick Unless the team wants Marvin Harrison Jr., Caleb Williams will likely be the first pick. This draft primarily starts at 1.03, with next-level quarterbacks like Malik Nabors, Roma Odunze, and even Brock Bowers getting slots between 1.03 and 1.07. . With JJ McCarthy's current rise, his projections could rise above his 1.08. Draft status will be a key consideration this year, especially as poor teams like the Patriots and Giants draft early. A rookie selected in these two situations could have his draft value reduced. In the 2024 season, it may be difficult to prioritize talent over situation in a first-division league with such a deep depth.
Competitive Team (1.09 – 1.12)
On most competitive teams, I wouldn't be willing to trade to get a top name. Rookies are still rookies, and starting in draft slot 1.03, the chance of busting increases significantly. In most cases, I would rather draft a player than give up production or depth to secure a coveted rookie, and the accompanying historically over 50% chance of failure. I am satisfied with letting the people come to me. The talent and depth in this class looks great, but there's enough intrigue near the bottom of the first round to keep me patient.
The beauty of this draft is the depth at the quarterback position. If there is a need at quarterback, the 1.08-1.12 draft window still offers the potential to add upside names, and I believe that perhaps even McCarthy will be off the board before 1.08. . However, due to the depth of the class, the quarterback quickly overpowered receivers Brian Thomas, Adonai Mitchell, Xavier Worthy, and Xavier Leggett, and I believe the community's evaluation of him is too low. If you need a running back, you'll probably want to pick from 1.09 or higher.
For these reasons, the depth of this class from pick 8 (as I call it) onwards, between picks 1.09 and 2.02, makes it very easy for me to feel safe and postpone the draft. It will be. In the end, we got a player with a high ceiling in the second half of our initial selection.
Medium competitive team (1.05 – 1.08)
Once again, you're getting a Tier 1 player here, so the world is on your side. If your running back needs help, you can still punt at the position and choose to punt in the middle of the second round. A complete set at receiver could potentially lead to a trade out, possibly going back to the late first round, while also getting an additional early to mid-second round selection. We focus on the quality and premium of our first tier players so our trading partners know they are dealing with a premium-filled selection. If you don't get a value that you think is justified, stick around and choose.
Draft slots 1.05 to 1.08 offer a lot of flexibility and opportunity. We're not going to overdraft a running back here. All other positions have been decided.
Rebuild the team (1.01 – 1.04)
At this point, there is little doubt that Caleb Williams and Marvin Harrison Jr. will be the first two selections. This is why I say this year's draft starts at 1.03. do not be afraid. You have a player with a high ceiling waiting for you. Any of them could be the top players in this draft when you look back five years from now.
If you have needs throughout the lineup, especially if you can get multiple picks within the top 12, this is a good draft with trade-back potential (ideally one of them is 1.07 or higher). case). His premiums for 2024 are very high at 1.01 and 1.02, which should give him significantly higher return value than last year. If you can avoid falling in love with players, you have the opportunity to add multiple picks or combinations of picks (unknown values) and players (known values).
single quarterback format
There's not much to adjust here other than quarterback rankings. My top 24 QB rankings are as follows:
Players not on the list are Bo Nix (30) and Michael Penix (32).
Notice the increase in Caleb Williams (8). Much like Anthony Richardson in 2023, Williams is a polarizing prospect and is sure to start garnering interest near Dynasty selection 1.07. Also, given the team's prioritization of offensive weapons this offseason, and again a second-round first-round pick, his expected situation in Chicago could be even better early in his career. There is also an argument that it provides materials.
I hope you enjoyed my look at my 2024 SuperFlex draft strategy. We will update again once the NFL Draft is complete.
If you have any questions or comments, please consider leaving a comment below. I always look forward to interacting with my readers. Follow us on Twitter and the thread: @DLF_Jeff
As always, be happy, be well, and be good to each other!
(Top photo of Caleb Williams: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports)
