Here are a few things we know about the Phoenix Suns' upcoming offseason.
They want to solve their season-long problem of undersized starters and add a bigger wing. Grayson Allen has exceeded expectations and is very good in this role, and he's not a player to try and defend as the No. 1 option. Having Kevin Durant as the only playable wing has been a big disadvantage for Phoenix all year, especially when other teams have felt much more athletic in comparison.
It won't be easy for the Suns to acquire this player, and the trade market doesn't look optimistic unless Phoenix dangles an unconditional 2031 first-round pick. Free agency is just a veteran minimum contract, and the Suns missed out on rotation additions Keita Bates-Diop, Josh Okogie and Yuta Watanabe last year.
All that remains is this year's draft and the Suns' 22nd overall pick. General manager James Jones has traditionally targeted older players who have developed in college. After all, wingers with several years of college experience often fall out of the lottery in the first round. Tennessee's Dalton Knecht will be a rare exception this year. And this draft class is especially rich in international prospects or wings without extensive college experience.
Phoenix's best opportunity to fill this need may be to acquire a winger with a late first-round pick, leading one to speculate that the Suns might be better off sticking with Jones' leanings rather than a more immature forward candidate.
So how well do these picks traditionally fare? Does recent history suggest that an experienced wing is the right choice? Or more simply, is this position in the draft a good place to find an experienced college wing? Let's find out.
We'll be judging the success rate of players selected thus far using a new basketball metric that's taking the world by storm: KTTAG (Kellan Thinks They Are Good). Never heard of it? Get out from under your rock! It's everywhere!
All we do is recommend players who have proven to be relatively successful rotation players in the NBA, and if you put one of them on the Suns last year, he would at least be earning playing time behind Royce O'Neale at the extra wing position that Phoenix is trying to fill this offseason.
And we're looking at the best version of these prospects, and a sure indicator of that is whether they capitalized after their rookie contracts expired.
Yes, names like Tony Snell will make you cringe, but he was so good he signed a $46 million contract in 2017! Seriously! Solomon Hill was good for a short time too! The Pelicans paid him $48 million the year before! Never forget that!
Despite the fact that several players have already made it in the past two drafts, our 10-year sample size will be from 2012 to 2021. Again, we will look at picks 15-30 and count players we classify as wings. They are not bound to a big man skill set, and are not solely defined as a point guard, two guard, or combo guard. They must meet certain criteria of size and versatility.
The data and conclusions are as follows:
Recent NBA Draft History of Wings with College Experience
Over the course of 10 drafts, a total of 72 wings have been selected between 15th and 30th. That's an average of just over seven per draft, and almost half of them in the second half of the first round. That's not surprising. But 29 of those 72 went on to be pretty solid contributors at some point in their careers. That's a 40.3% hit rate in the KTTAG. That's surprising.
As expected, there are diamonds in the rough, but again, only in this position group, and as expected, many teams are unable to analyze the rough to find the diamonds.
In the 2014 class, Bogdan Bogdanovic (27th) and Kyle Anderson (30th) each had impressive careers.
In 2016, big names like Juancho Hernangomez, Guerschon Yabusele and Henry Ellenson didn't make it big, but then Malik Beasley (19th), Caris LeVert (20th) and Pascal Siakam (27th) were selected. The following year, inexperienced DJ Wilson and Terrance Ferguson were selected ahead of OG Anunoby (23rd), Kyle Kuzma (27th) and Josh Hart (30th). In 2020, several promising players were selected, but none as big as Jaden McDaniels (29th).
Now, here's the James Jones question: How many of these players had experience with at least three years of collegiate experience?
23 were successful. And 14 were. The KTTAG hit rate is 60.9%. Interesting!
That means that for wingers with no collegiate experience, overseas prospects and prospects who played two years or less in college only had a hit rate of 15 out of 49 attempts (30.6%).
To recap, the hypothesis was that NBA-ready wing prospects who typically fall in this part of the draft due to lack of high potential have a higher minimum, and the simplest of research (we use a silly acronym we made up because it sounds funny) confirmed it.
Still, this is far from a guarantee.
In a recent search for college standouts from the 2022 draft class, Christian Braun (21st) earned KTTAG's stamp of approval. David Roddy (23rd) and Wendell Moore Jr. (26th) did not.
Last year, Jamie Jaquez Jr. (18th) and Ben Shepherd (26th) earned KTTAG honors before being selected, as did Julian Strother (29th) and Kobe Brown (30th), who are in a wait-and-see position.
What's interesting this year is that only one of these ready-to-play wings appears to be a surefire first-round selection outside of the lottery: Colorado's Tristan da Silva, the only veteran standout who we'll review in detail in our upcoming 22 for 22. Not surprisingly, he's been moving up in the pre-draft process and could even be a late-teens pick. Da Silva is sandwiched between a couple of one-year players and some international talent.
Kansas freshman Johnny Furphy, Miami freshman Ki'Shawn George, G-League Ignite's Tyler Smith, France's Pacôme Dadier and the NBL's Bobbi Klintman are all potential first-round picks.
Maybe that's why he's reaching out a little to players of da Silva's calibre, like North Carolina's Harrison Ingram, Kansas' Kevin McCullar Jr., San Francisco's Jonathan Mogbo, Illinois' Terrence Shannon Jr. and Cal's Jaylon Tyson, with Tyson in particular rising significantly in the rankings after the NBA combine and during workouts.
If the Suns don't trade their pick and stay with the 22nd pick, it's likely they'll select one of these players, and recent results suggest Jones is right.
