The reintroduction of the Atlantic Division continues for the Ottawa Senators after a busy offseason. The Senators are hoping to overtake the Buffalo Sabres in the standings and deepen their roster through trades and free agent signings. Ottawa has shuffled and restructured some talent within the organization while keeping the core of their team intact. They also brought in new coach Travis Green, who they hope will take the team to the next level.
The Senators needed to step up in the offseason after a disappointing 2023-2024 season. Like the Sabres, the Senators were a favorite to make the playoffs but finished seventh in the division. Goals didn't come as easily and their goaltending was too shaky to be a true championship contender. Their -26 goal differential was the fourth-worst in the Eastern Conference.
Off-season goals
The Senators' roster has the core pieces of a solid team. They have three good to very good centers in Tim Stutzle, Josh Norris and Shane Pinto. Their leader in Brady Tkachuk is one of the most respected young players in the NHL. Jake Sanderson is a talented young defenseman and Thomas Chabot continues to provide offense from the back end.
The problem was the supporting cast, with Claude Giroux and Drake Batherson shouldering most of the burden. Ottawa's bottom six offered little support and needed replacement. Paying Jakob Chychrun's salary in addition to Sanderson and Chabot was a bit much, even though Chychrun leads Senators defencemen in scoring.
Most importantly, Ottawa needed to find a goaltending solution. Jonas Korpisalo is a decent goaltender in the right environment, but the Senators are a team built to protect goalies. Anton Forsberg plays well at times, but shouldn't be relied on for key starts.
forward
The Senators needed to bolster their bottom-six forwards in the offseason to make up for the loss of Vladimir Tarasenko before the trade deadline, which resulted in them losing a bottom-five regular and a reserve forward, and in their place was a top-six veteran in David Perron and a bottom-six difference-maker.
Perron will immediately be deployed opposite Giroud on the second line, and although both players are older at 36, his shooting ability will be the perfect complement to Giroud's passing ability.
Michael Amadio is a quality third-line contributor and gives Ottawa a great opportunity to join forces with one of their top three centres and future prospects in Ridley Greig. Noah Gregor added explosiveness and competitiveness to the Toronto Maple Leafs' fourth line last season and is expected to do the same for Ottawa.
While the forward corps as a whole didn't see any big improvements, the rotation of members could be the right mix to complement the core. No decisions have been made on offseason reinforcements, but the Senators' core will be the subject of scrutiny.
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defense
Losing a versatile defenseman like Jakob Chychrun would be a big blow to the Senators, but they should be looking to add a more consistent defensive presence with Nick Jensen. Jensen has always been rated as one of the better penalty killers in the league, something Chychrun doesn't have. Given that the trade with the Washington Capitals was considered a salary cap move, it was good the Senators made improvements in certain areas with the trade.
Waiving Erik Brannstrom was a head-scratching move because the blue-lineman has exceptional defensive underlying statistics as a third-pair contributor, and he ended up signing with the Colorado Avalanche on a one-year league-minimum contract, proving that negotiating with the Senators wouldn't have cost him a fortune.
Chabot's health will be even more important for Ottawa in 2024-2025, as he has battled injuries the past few seasons, and other defencemen, including Sanderson, will need to step up offensively to replace Chychrun's production.
Goaltending
If the Senators succeeded in one area this offseason, it was acquiring a bona fide No. 1 goaltender, and trading the shaky Korpisalo for former Vezina Trophy winner Linus Ullmark was, on paper, one of the biggest moves of the offseason.
If there's any cause for concern, it's that all of Boston's goalies have been successful over the past few years. Ullmark's numbers were solid in a questionable defensive environment in Buffalo before skyrocketing to some of the best in the league after joining the Bruins. The Senators have been more like the Sabres than the Bruins over the past few seasons, but Green and his new coaching staff will surely try to change that.
Ullmark’s projected goal save numbers could be lower, but even an above-average goaltender could boost Ottawa’s standings points projections.
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Line Combination
While the overall line configurations are pretty much set heading into the season, it's harder to predict the exact combinations Travis Green has in mind and how he will be used. Each center brings something different to the table, so rather than mixing in wingers up and down the lineup, he may have to rotate his pivot men around like a revolving door to find the right fit.
The anticipated opening night lineup is as follows:
forward
Brady Tkachuk – Tim Stutzle – Drake Batherson
David Perron – Josh Norris – Claude Giroux
Ridley Greig – Shane Pinto – Michael Amadio
Boris Katyukh – Noah Gregor – Zach McEuen
defense
Jake Sanderson – Artem Zub
Thomas Chabot – Nick Jensen
Jacob Bernard Docker – Travis Hamonic
Goalkeeper
Linus Ullmark (starter)
Anton Forsberg (backup)
With four right-handed defencemen on an NHL roster, there's a good chance someone will play offside. Tyler Kleven flourished in Ottawa last season and could fill in on the left side of the third pairing instead. The Senators boast a bona fide No. 1 line, a top-four quality defenceman and a top-tier goaltender, and have the framework to contend in the playoffs.
The power play looks like this:
Power Play 1
Brady Tkachuk
Drake Batherson – Josh Norris – Tim Stutzle
Thomas Chabot
Power Play 2
Ridley Greig
David Perron – Shane Pinto – Claude Giroux
Jake Sanderson
The Sabres can empathize with the decline in power play performance. The Senators fell from eighth in 2022-2023 to 10th in the bottom half of the NHL in 2024-2025. With the same factors remaining in both years, it's more a matter of strategy and execution than anything else. Ottawa could see a rebound in power play goals, improving their standings outlook.
Ottawa’s improved penalty kill could look like this:
Penalty Kill 1
Claude Giroux – Ridley Greig
Jake Sanderson – Nick Jensen
Penalty Kill 2
Noah Gregor – Boris Katyuk
Travis Hamonic – Artem Zub
Losing Kelly and Joseph means veteran Giroux will be even more important as a penalty killer, and the Senators may choose to have their stars play with the unit to foster more of a “power-kill” mentality.
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projection
The PuckLuck model was biased towards the Ottawa Senators last season and has only gotten more so in the offseason. Ullmark's projected GSAx is likely inflated due to his performance in Boston, which accounts for a large part of this inflated projection. That said, the Senators are projected to finish around 98 points in the standings and make the playoffs.
According to the model, Ottawa is seen as very likely to improve on last season with a minimum of 85 points and a maximum of 110. The team is projected to finish the season fourth in the Atlantic Division, seventh in the Eastern Conference and 10th in the NHL.
The Senators are also projected to pass the Sabres in the standings, who are currently projected to have 94 points. That four-point difference could be the difference between making the playoffs or not. The biggest uncertainty is goaltending, with the Sabres hoping Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen continues to perform well and the Senators hoping Ullmark can become a gritty Vezina candidate again. The better team could be one that shows more quality play at the position.
In a strong Atlantic Division, the moves the Senators make in the offseason could be the difference between clinching a playoff wild-card spot or having another losing season. Now, in what may be Claude Giroux's final season, may be the perfect time to take on the challenge seriously.
