Obviously, there's a lot of important stuff happening off the field in college sports, but with spring football over and many transfer players set to report to their new programs in the coming weeks, now's a good time to take a peek at next season. Sportsbooks have released their team win numbers, an ideal barometer for knowing what to expect from each program. Here are my top five most attractive picks to go over, as well as some that finish under.
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Georgia — 10.5 wins: This team is 24-0 in the last three SEC regular seasons and 42-2 overall. It had a 29-game winning streak snapped by Alabama in last year's SEC Finals, but it's still a solid team and Nick Saban is now on TV. Georgia returns 16 starters and has arguably the best quarterback in the country in Carson Beck. Beck is a smart, accurate triggerman and is surrounded by talented newcomers in wide receiver Colby Young and running back Trevor Etienne to rub shoulders with an experienced offensive line. Nazeer Stackhouse and Michael Williams spearhead a talented defensive line, while safety Malachi Starks anchors the secondary. The schedule won't be easy. The Bulldogs play Clemson in Atlanta and then travel to Tuscaloosa, Austin and Oxford, but I have a feeling Kirby Smart will have this team ready for 2024 and I can't imagine Georgia losing more than once this fall.
Florida State — 9.5 wins: The Seminoles dominated the ACC (and LSU), finishing 13-0, but were ignored by the College Football Playoff selection committee last December. They return just eight starters, but the story in Tallahassee is that they've retooled and should be nasty on defense again. Cornerback Azaray Thomas, a 6-foot-1 ballhawk, had a great spring and should lead one of the best secondaries in college football. Patrick Payton continues to develop into a great defensive end, and Marvin Jones Jr. is expected to have a great year on the other side. Darrell Jackson will be a big presence in the middle of the Noles defense. QB DJ Uiagalelei developed as a passer and processor at Oregon State and should be a dual threat with his ability to break through tackles in the run game. Alabama transfer Malik Benson and Indiana transfer Jaylin Lucas add playmaking skill, and they'll play Clemson at home and travel to Miami and Notre Dame, and if they don't lose all three games (and likely win at least two), they'll have a great chance to post double-digit wins.
Colorado — 5.5 wins: Deion Sanders took over a one-win team last year and has taken it to 4-8. I expect them to make another big leap or at least become bowl eligible. The Buffaloes have one of the best quarterbacks in the country in Shedell Sanders, who is tough and accurate, and they have some great skill talent on the team, led by Travis Hunter. The Buffaloes will be without Dylan Edwards, but speedster Darran Hayden, a transfer from Ohio State who rushed for 553 yards and 5 TDs last year, should be a good fit. Even better, CU has beefed up its offensive line, which was awful last year. The Buffaloes have also made great strides in revamping their defensive front, led by University of Pittsburgh transfer Dion Hayes (10.5 TFL in 2023). CU has a tough opener coming up against FCS powerhouse North Dakota State before a trip to Nebraska, but with the younger Sanders at the helm of the offense, this team should be strong enough to at least get him six wins.
Iowa State — 7.5 wins: The Cyclones had a tough time heading into 2023 with ISU and rival Iowa dealing with gambling investigations. Matt Campbell's team will be one of the youngest in Power 5 football, with freshmen playing key roles. After opening 1-2, including a 10-7 loss at Ohio, the Cyclones finished the season with a 7-6 record and 6-3 record in the Big 12. Nearly all of the key members are back and have experience. Rocco Becht, now a sophomore, is a budding star. He had 23 touchdowns and only eight interceptions in 2023. He has a great WR group led by Jaylin Noel and Jayden Higgins. Abu Sama III, a dynamic running back, rushed for almost 300 yards against K-State as a true freshman. The Cyclones return five offensive linemen, each with starting experience. Middle linebacker Jack Sadowski and safety Beau Fraler bring toughness and resourcefulness to ISU in the middle of the defense. Tough games include Iowa, West Virginia, Kansas, Utah and the season finale against Kansas State. Don't be surprised to see Campbell lead a top 25 team this year. If he performs as well as some in the program expect Becht to, the two could be good enough to sneak into the CFP.
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Memphis — 8.5 wins: Ryan Silverfield's team is a CFP-caliber AAC team. The Tigers are coming off a 10-win season, beating ISU in the Liberty Bowl. Even better, Memphis kept their big stars, which isn't easy to do these days outside of the Power 5. QB Seth Hennigan is very smart, mobile and doesn't make mistakes. WR Lock Taylor is a 6'3, 225-pound maverick who is a matchup nightmare for defenses. RB Sutton Smith has game-changing speed and reminds me of former Tigers star Kenny Gainwell. These two are dangerous. They have to play FSU in September, but outside of that, the Tigers should be as talented as any team they face. The games at USF and Tulane won't be easy, though.
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Cal's away games in 2024 include Auburn, Florida State, Pittsburgh, Wake Forest and SMU. (Petre Thomas / USA Today)
Cal — 5.5 wins: The Bears finished 2023 strong, retaining star running back Jaden Ott, but bowl eligibility will be a tall order in their new home in the ACC. They should start 2024 strong, opening the season at UC Davis. After that, things aren't ideal. They'll travel across the country to take on Auburn, then come home to take on San Diego State, then the next week they'll travel back to the other side of the country to visit Florida State. After a home game against Miami, they'll make their third trip to the Eastern Time Zone to take on Pittsburgh. They'll have to travel to Wake Forest later in the season. Other games they could win include Oregon State and Stanford.
UCLA — 5.5 wins: The Bruins may have an even tougher road schedule than the Bears. They open in Hawaii, where they should win, but then they have a tough three-game stretch against Indiana, Louisiana State, Oregon at home, and Penn State. Then they host Minnesota, travel east to Rutgers, and then Nebraska, before visiting Iowa six days later. The good news is that UCLA has a good quarterback in Ethan Garbers. The Bruins were good last year when he was healthy. But they need to rebuild a lot of their defense. Liatu Latu and a few others have left for the NFL, and some of their most talented defensive backs have also moved across town to USC, along with defensive coordinator Danton Lin.
Notre Dame — 10.5 wins: The Irish have a pretty good chance to make the playoffs this year, but I'm surprised the numbers are so high. Marcus Freeman has upgraded his staff at several key positions, including offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock. I like ND's defense, especially the D-line and secondary. Duke transfer QB Riley Leonard is a tough kid and a great runner, but playing against the coach who probably knows him best, former Blue Devils head coach Mike Elko, at Texas A&M is less than ideal. The Irish get visits from Louisville and FSU (both talented and well-coached) before heading to USC, where the Irish were embarrassed last season. I expect ND to split the four games.
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Trust the coaches who have worked with him, Mike Denbrock is an easy bet.
Washington — 7.5 wins: Sure, UDub played for a national title and just went 25-3 the past two seasons, but Michael Penix Jr. and nearly every starter from those teams are gone. The entire O-line will be new. Jedd Fisch did a great job in his three years at Arizona, but they'll be in for a major rebuild here. Outside of the linebacker position, the Huskies will be bringing in inexperienced players to work. On the plus side, the first month is a manageable schedule. There are no away games, and they'll play Weber State, EMU, Washington State, and Northwestern. At worst, they'll go 3-1, with 4-0 being realistic. After that, it gets much tougher. They'll host Rutgers, Michigan at home, visit Iowa, take a week off, visit Indiana, play USC, visit Penn State, play UCLA in Seattle, and visit Oregon. With so much turnover in the team, I think it will be difficult to achieve more than six wins.
USC — 7.5 wins: Lincoln Riley's team went 7-5 last year, but that was with Caleb Williams. Can Troy be better without Williams? Miller Moss played well in the bowl game, but the offensive line is still disappointing, and Williams' lack of footwork could make it even more of a problem. Lin will try to rebuild the defense, but he seems to have worked with better talent at UCLA than he did this year. After a tough first month, many of the games could be 50-50. Playing LSU in Las Vegas is risky. The Tigers are still really talented. In late September, USC visits Michigan and then plays Wisconsin. It seems unreasonable to expect more than 2-2, but that could be the tone-setting moment for a program still searching for its identity. The good news is that the Trojans don't have to play Ohio State or Oregon, but they still have games against Penn State and Notre Dame, long trips to Minnesota and Maryland and a tougher test in Washington.
(Top photo of Jaylin Lucas of Florida State University: Melina Myers/USA Today)
