For the vast majority of college football teams, fall camp is just a week away and there's just another month of live-action football on our screens. In August, teams will take their first steps toward a spot in the newly expanded, 12-team College Football Playoff. More teams making the postseason means a larger field than ever to compete for the championship.
So who is the best? Let's rank them.
I use play-by-play data to make projections for each college football team. Projections consist of box score stats as well as returning performances, recruiting rankings, transfers, etc. These projections are not the teams the model thinks are most likely to win the national championship or make the playoffs (more on these in the coming weeks), but rather overall power rankings. Using the output of this model, I built an algorithm that simulates every game in the season 100,000 times to get projected wins and odds of winning the conference title for each college football team.
Before we get into the rankings, it's important to note that the differences between rankings are not even. For example, a ranking of 20-25 in my model is very different from a ranking of 1-5. As we all know, there is a hierarchy in college football and my model is fully aware of that.
2024 college football preseason top 25
Power 2?
The Big Ten and SEC are home to 12 of the top 13 teams, and while Utah, Kansas State and Florida State are in the Big 12 and ACC, Notre Dame remains a lone wolf among college football's elite programs.
Dropped out of runner-up position again
For the second straight year, the runner-up to the national title game isn't ranked in the top 25. Washington is No. 41 in my model. TCU was 5-7 and ranked No. 26 entering last season.
Top 25 teams by conference
- SEC: 9
- Big Ten: 5
- Big 12: 5
- ACC: 5
- Independent: 1
The Big 3 and the rest
There is a slight gap between No. 3 Oregon and No. 4 Texas in my model. It's no surprise that Georgia and Ohio State are elite programs, but Oregon is in new territory here. I'm a bit skeptical about how the Ducks will transition to the Big Ten and cross-country travel, but Dan Lanning's team is talented from top to bottom of the roster and was one of the best in the country last season. Finding a replacement for Bo Nix may seem like a big hurdle, but with the addition of Heisman Trophy frontrunner Dillon Gabriel via the transfer portal, Oregon should remain one of college football's best offensive forces.
Alabama remains in the top five after Nick Saban
Nick Saban is the GOAT of college football, and I don't know if we'll ever see him perform like he did with the Crimson Tide again. So, we can expect Alabama to drop a little bit, right? Not really. Cullen DeBoer from Washington has been one of the best college coaches of the last decade. With a 104-12 record in his head coaching career, this will be his toughest job yet, but I'm confident he'll keep Alabama as one of the top programs in the SEC. Will he match Saban? Probably not. But it's unfair to hold him to the standard of the best of all time. Alabama will be fine.
Are Lane Kiffin and Ole Miss ready for his arrival?
This year's Ole Miss team will be the best of Kiffin's tenure and the expectations will be accordingly. Kiffin's coaching career has been up and down, but he just finished arguably his best season and I think the Rebels have the more talent this season. Can we trust Kiffin and this Ole Miss team to compete against elite teams? The jury is still out, but with a favorable schedule, Ole Miss will be in the College Football Playoff conversation all season long.
Team Capsule
1. Georgia
- Projected wins in 2024: 10.4
- Conference title: 38.1%
- Last year's record: 13-1
2. Ohio State University
- Projected wins in 2024: 10.5
- Conference Title: 40%
- Last year's record: 11-2
3. Oregon
- Projected wins in 2024: 10.1
- Conference Title: 31.6%
- Last year's record: 12-2
4. Texas
- Projected wins in 2024: 9.7
- Conference title: 24.1%
- Last year's record: 12-2
5. Alabama
- Projected wins in 2024: 8.9
- Conference Title: 7.3%
- Last year's record: 12-2
6. Louisiana State University
- Projected wins in 2024: 9
- Conference Title: 8.1%
- Last year's record: 10-3
7. Ole Miss
- Projected wins in 2024: 9.1
- Conference Title: 7%
- Last year's record: 11-2
8. Pennsylvania State University
- Projected wins in 2024: 9.5
- Conference Title: 13.2%
- Last year's record: 10-3
9. Notre Dame
- Projected wins in 2024: 9.4
- Last year's record: 10-3
10. Texas A&M
- Projected wins in 2024: 8.7
- Conference Title: 5.9%
- Last year's record: 7-6
11. Missouri
- Projected wins in 2024: 9.1
- Conference Title: 4.9%
- Last year's record: 11-2
12. Michigan
- Projected wins in 2024: 8.9
- Conference Title: 10.7%
- Last year's record: 15-0
13. Oklahoma
- Projected wins in 2024: 7.9
- Conference Title: 1.6%
- Last year's record: 10-3
14. Utah
- Projected wins in 2024: 9.2
- Conference Title: 32.6%
- Last year's record: 8-5
15. Kansas State University
- Projected wins in 2024: 9.2
- Conference title: 30.9%
- Last year's record: 9-4
16. Florida State University
- Projected wins in 2024: 8.9
- Conference title: 26.5%
- Last year's record: 13-1
17. Tennessee
- Projected wins in 2024: 8.3
- Conference Title: 2.5%
- Last year's record: 9-4
18. Oklahoma State University
- Projected wins in 2024: 8.6
- Conference Title: 9%
- Last year's record: 10-4
19. Clemson
- Projected wins in 2024: 8.2
- Conference title: 17.1%
- Last year's record: 9-4
20. University of Southern California
- Projected wins in 2024: 6.9
- Conference Title: 1.6%
- Last year's record: 8-5
21. Arizona
- Projected wins in 2024: 7.9
- Conference Title: 8.8%
- Last year's record: 10-3
22. Miami
- Projected wins in 2024: 8.5
- Conference Title: 10.9%
- Last year's record: 7-6
23. Kansas
- Projected wins in 2024: 7.7
- Conference Title: 3.3%
- Last year's record: 9-4
24. Virginia Tech
- Projected wins in 2024: 8.5
- Conference Title: 10.6%
- Last year's record: 7-6
25. Louisville
- Projected wins in 2024: 7.9
- Conference Title: 11.8%
- Last year's record: 10-4
(Photo of Tez Johnson by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)
