With just over three weeks until the highly anticipated release of EA Sports College Football 25, for those eager to get some more game content, the developer revealed the top 25 offensive teams that will be featured in the game on Thursday. While big-name schools Georgia, Alabama and Ohio State all feature in the top five, I thought I'd take a moment to break down these rankings and compare them to next season's top offensive teams according to my College Football Projection Model.
For those unfamiliar with my work, I developed a model to predict the strength of college football teams. The process involves taking play-by-play level data and adjusting for opponent, home field advantage, and garbage time to predict how an offense or defense will perform in the future against the average college football team. The model also takes into account returning player performance and recruiting metrics to predict how each team will perform heading into the regular season. Predictions are broken down by offense and defense, which can then be combined to produce an overall rating.
These rankings will change throughout the season, both in my model and in the game, but it's interesting to see how similar or different the two systems are. Let's take a look at where the biggest differences between my model and the game are.
Shadur Sanders is one of the top quarterback prospects in the 2025 NFL Draft, so that may explain the Buffaloes' high ranking, but my model has Coach Prime's offense ranked 49th this season. Colorado ranks 64th in EPA per play on offense and 69th in offensive success rate in 2023, per TrueMedia. The offense could improve from those numbers, but frankly, I'd be surprised if the Buffaloes field a top-10 offensive line in college football this season. It's unlikely that a unit that's only slightly above average in efficiency in college football will become one of the best in the country in one offseason.
2. USC is underrated
Sure, having to replace a No. 1 NFL draft pick at quarterback isn't ideal, but if there's any coach who can do it, it's Lincoln Riley. In 2019, Riley replaced No. 1 overall pick Kyler Murray with Jalen Hurts and led Oklahoma to a top-five offense. Riley's offense hasn't finished lower than 13th in EPA/play since 2019, according to TruMedia, and that 13th came during the pandemic-altered 2020 season. Redshirt junior Miller Moss, a top-100 player in his high school class according to the 247Sports Composite rankings, was strong in last season's bowl game. If history teaches us anything, it's that Riley's offense is likely to be at worst a top-15 player, regardless of who's playing quarterback.
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3. Ohio State's offense has something to prove.
The Buckeyes dominated the transfer portal during the offseason, but their replacement of quarterback Kyle McCord (transferred to Syracuse) with Will Howard (transferred from Kansas State) has generated skepticism within my model and among developers at EA Sports. Sure, Ohio State is 6th in my numbers and 5th in the game, but it's far from where they were when Ryan Day was at Ohio State. The difference in offensive power between Georgia State and Ohio State in my model is the same as the difference between 6th and 15th place. Looking at EA's ratings, the difference between the Buckeyes and the top spot is between 5th and 21st-22nd place. This is not the norm in Columbus, and all eyes will be on this offense as the pressure mounts to return to the top of college football.
(Screenshots courtesy of EA Sports)
