For those of you who don't know, the Georgia Tech football team will be facing one of the toughest schedules in the country this season, and while this Yellow Jackets team may be much better than last year's team, the schedule may hold them back from doing better.
This is nothing new to the program or to Yellow Jacket fans. The team has had to play Georgia at the end of the year every year and, until this season, also had to play Clemson every year. Georgia is still on the schedule, but Clemson is not this year. But the schedule is the toughest in the ACC and arguably one of the toughest in the country. Georgia Tech will have to face the likes of Notre Dame, Florida State, Miami, Louisville, NC State and Virginia Tech on their 2024 schedule. Every week presents its own challenges for Brent Key and his team.
ESPN has released its first FPI figures for the 2024 season, with Georgia Tech starting the season ranked 54th. ESPN uses the FPI (Football Power Index) as an advanced analytical model to look at opponents and predict outcomes. In ESPN's own words, “FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and forecast future performance. FPI's ultimate goal is not to rank teams from 1 to 128, but to correctly predict game and season outcomes. If Las Vegas were to release a power ranking that they use to set lines, it would probably look very similar to the FPI.”
So where do Georgia Tech's opponents rank in this first FPI rankings release?
1. Georgia (No. 1 in the nation)
2. Notre Dame (No. 7)
3. Florida State University (#11)
4. Louisville (21st)
5. Miami (No. 23)
6. North Carolina State University (#28)
7. North Carolina (42)
8. Virginia Tech (50)
9. Duke (52)
10. Syracuse (70)
11. Georgia State University (89)
While I think it's up for debate as to where certain opponents should be ranked, it still presents a tough schedule overall for the Yellow Jackets, with six opponents in the top 30 and eight in the top 50. Some could argue that Virginia Tech and Syracuse should both be ranked higher.
247Sports analyst Brad Crawford rated the Yellow Jackets' 2024 schedule as the sixth-toughest in the country.
“As one of two ACC teams ranked in our toughest schedule rankings, Georgia Tech has a tough road ahead of it, especially with the Yellow Jackets finishing their season against Miami, NC State and Georgia in November. Coach Brent Key will need to get this team ready every week or it will be difficult to achieve bowl eligibility.”
Seven of Georgia Tech's opponents appeared in 247Sports' post-spring Top 25. Eleven of Georgia Tech's 12 opponents played in a bowl game last season.
Most sportsbooks have the Yellow Jackets at 5.5 to win, but On3 Sports analyst Jesse Simonton thinks 5.5 may be too high.
“The Yellow Jackets beat Miami and North Carolina last season to reach the postseason for the first time since 2018, but bookmakers are projecting a slight regression in 2024 with the ACC's toughest schedule (including non-conference).
Georgia Tech returns quarterback Haynes King (who led the league in touchdowns and interceptions last season) and 1,000-yard runner Jamaal Haynes, and has infused 11 newcomers via the portal into a sloppy defense (worst in the ACC in 2023), but has just five true home games on its schedule this fall. The Yellow Jackets open in the Irish against FSU and end the season in Athens against top-ranked Georgia. In between, they face Syracuse, Louisville, North Carolina and Virginia Tech, and then play Notre Dame, Miami and NC State at home, a tough game by ACC standards.
While the schedule is tough, there aren't many games where the Yellow Jackets will be overwhelmingly underdogs, and Brent Key has shown the ability to get his team to play at a high level and pull off upsets since his time as interim head coach. They may be significant underdogs in games against FSU, Notre Dame and Georgia, but they may not be double-digit underdogs in other games. Still, this team needs to make a run at a bowl game and try to improve on last year's 7-6 record.
