Canada's pursuit of Olympic glory tested by 'group of death'

A golden age of Canadian basketball will officially begin this summer.

Also.

Canada will have three teams heading to Paris: the senior women's team, the 3×3 women's team and the men's team, who will be hoping to further solidify their place on the world stage with an Olympic medal after making their mark on basketball history with a bronze medal at the 2023 FIBA ​​World Cup.

They have their hands full. After a week of qualifying, Spain and Greece are in Group A with Canada and Australia. The top two teams advance to the knockout stage, while the third could slip into a wild-card spot depending on goal difference.

Some are calling this group “the group of death,” and they certainly are. Australia and Spain are ranked 5th and 2nd in the world, respectively, and Greece has a highly motivated player in Giannis Antetokounmpo. But Canada can be confident that they will not only perform well, but also win the group.

They have the stars: perennial MVP candidate Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and 2023 NBA champion Jamal Murray combine to create a star-studded Canadian backcourt.

“I drive and he shoots,” Gilgeous-Alexander joked during training camp when asked about the chemistry between the two, a tactic Murray later confirmed.

They also have depth to complement their core group. Though the full roster is yet to be finalized, they have seven NBA players who have played in actual playoff games. Six are returning from the World Cup: RJ Barrett, Dillon Brooks, Lou Dort, Kelly Olynyk, Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Dwight Powell. And then there are two new additions this summer: defensive-minded Indiana Pacers guard Andrew Nembard and versatile big man Trey Lyles, who is a key part of the Sacramento Kings' offensive versatility.

These are the likely sure bets to be selected, with the remaining two spots to be decided in the coming weeks, while Khem Birch, Melvin Ejim, Mfiondu Kabengele and Phil and Thomas Scrubb continue to fight for the right to represent their country once again.

They have leadership: New Brooklyn Nets head coach Jordi Fernandez, who will lead Canada for the second straight season, took over just a month before the tournament and quickly revitalized his 2023 team.

But for this team, relying on talent alone isn't enough. The right players need to come together to form an identity that can thrive in the international game. Away from the comfort of the pace and space of the NBA, these 12 players must rely on their strengths as a team and hope that translates into wins.

It was a point that was emphasized frequently during training camp in Toronto last week.

“Most of the guys have a pretty good grasp of the concepts,” Brooks told media during camp, “so we can hit the ground running. We're competing with each other. It speeds up the process. We already have chemistry, we know what we're good at.”

The men's team knew what they were good at in the 2023 World Cup. They had the second-best offense in the tournament behind the United States. Gilgeous-Alexander led the Canadian team with over 24.5 points per game. They were the fourth-best 3-point shooting team in the tournament.

But there was one particular area where Canada lagged behind: defence.

Canada finished 13th in opponents scored in the tournament, good enough to win a medal in a 32-team World Cup, but it will need to do better in the 12-team Olympic basketball competition, and Canada knows it.

“At the end of the day, we were first in attacking power but 11th in shot quality,” coach Jordi Fernandez said. “So we have to take better shots, we have to create better shots. But defensively, our pressure on the ball, our repeated efforts, contesting shots is why we lost to Serbia. We didn't contest shots.”

The 95 points they allowed to Serbia in the semifinals was their highest total to that point in the tournament (they gave up 118 to the U.S. in the bronze medal game). Serbia shot 42 percent from the 3-point line and 71 percent in the paint. As Fernandez said, it was a poor showing.

The Olympics tend to exacerbate this situation as the talent level is high and each country brings in their best players, especially in the frontcourt — Nikola Jokic, for example, will play for Serbia, Victor Wembanyama and Rudy Gobert will be strong additions for France, and the U.S. brought in Joel Embiid to bolster their inside line.

This is certainly a concern for Canada. If there's one thing this team is lacking, it's size. With Memphis Grizzlies rookie Zach Eddy stepping away from international play this summer to focus on his NBA career, it will require a team-wide effort to address the issue.

“If all of these guys aren't focused on defense, we're not going to be successful,” said big man Dwight Powell, who played center for Canada in countless tournaments, including last summer's World Cup. “The center needs to support the defense and communicate when we have the ball, but that position can be filled by a guard or a wing. So we all have to be ready to support each other and communicate at a level where we know where we want each other to support us defensively.”

Powell makes a good point. In the game of basketball, players have to wear multiple hats depending on the flow of possession, and the Canadians are versatile in that regard. Dort and Brooks top the list of the toughest defenders in the league, and both can guard bigger guys, while Nembard and Alexander-Walker are key offensive players. Pressuring the ball is how this team wins defensively.

“I'll come off the bench and play defense and playmaking,” said Nembard, 24. “I think anyone can attack the ball like we do.”

Maybe that's where Canada's real strength lies. SGA and Murray are the obvious mainstays, but Canada has multiple creators and can launch attacks in a variety of ways. Why not rely on that? Lyles, in particular, is helping Canada get there.

“I've played the small-ball 5 role on a couple of teams and excelled in that area,” Lyles told me, “so I think it's a no-brainer for me and Kelly and the other guys.”

The five-and-out concept is one Dort and Gilgeous-Alexander know well from their time with Chet Holmgren in Oklahoma City. Murray developed a strong two-man game with Jokic in Denver and knows how to slide into open shots. And Olynyk and Barrett, now teammates on the Raptors, function well as post hubs and cutters. When Canada leans into its offensive identity, avenues to score are abundant.

Still, a healthy balance is essential in Olympic competition, and it's up to Fernandez to ensure it happens.

“When he talks, I listen, and he's really forthright,” Brooks said of his coach. “He's not afraid to make decisions, and that's what I like about him.”

Fernandez and his team will get their first test in a friendly in Las Vegas against the team they beat last summer: the United States. They've brought in some new players who are older but more experienced. Germany and Spain were Canada's qualifying tournaments last year and set the bar for how good Canada will do in the upcoming tournament. Now, even as the world catches up on talent levels, it's the U.S. that understands the concept of sustained excellence internationally.

The pressure is mounting. Success has only raised expectations for a program that has been beset by failures. If last summer was a “we're here,” Paris will be a “we're last.”

Perhaps that's why many are calling Canada's opponents in Group A the “group of death.” They are better than Spain, Australia, and Greece in almost every way. They have the top-tier talent, depth, and versatility to easily dominate and win their group.

But deep down, fears of the past lurk, and these fears don't reside within a confident Canada basketball program, but within the psyches of Canada basketball fans.

New commitments and buy-in are emerging, and the group's stylistic identity is constantly evolving as more talent is infused into the core unit.

The upcoming Olympic Games should further solidify that belief.

Canadians should change their “death groups” to “validation groups.”