The loss to the Spurs will likely be overshadowed if Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray lead another attractive postseason run, but for now, don't take anything for granted. This is a warning. Denver, seeking to become the fourth team in the past 20 years to win back-to-back championships, cruised through the 2023 playoffs with a 16-4 record and gained momentum as they neared the Larry O'Brien Trophy. However, recent history strongly suggests that this year's road will not be so pretty. The last four defending champions finished their title defenses before the conference finals, and Denver must survive a competitive battle.
“It's a great team we're playing against,” James said before the rematch, carefully downplaying any residual animosity from last year. “It's a championship-winning team, so there were a lot of big games. They know what they want to achieve late in the game. We have to be very disciplined. We have to be very disciplined in that. You've got to put your heart into it. It's going to be tough. … Games aren't won on record. Games are won between the four lines.”
Excellent health will be the key to Denver's championship, and it will be the obvious key to defending the title. The top seven players in the Nuggets' rotation have collectively missed zero games in the 2023 playoffs, giving them a clear health advantage over their remaining three opponents. Chris Paul and Deandre Ayton missed the game against Phoenix, and James was nursing a foot injury in the West Finals. Tyler Herro missed the finals in Miami.
Denver knows what it's like to enter the playoffs not at full strength. With Murray sidelined with a serious knee injury, the Nuggets were swept in the second round by the Suns in 2021 and lost in the first round to the Golden State Warriors in 2022. This season, Denver has an incredible record (44 wins, 15 losses), and despite the great performance of Jokic, who is considered to be the favorite to win his third MVP award, Denver's absence will be fatal (13 wins, 10 losses). )was. The Nuggets have quality bench contributions from Peyton Watson and Christian Braun, but they lost Bruce Brown in free agency and have no signature offseason additions, leaving them in trouble if injuries occur. may occur.
Murray, who averaged a whopping 40 minutes in the 2023 playoffs, will have to put his lingering ankle injury behind him if Denver is to survive tougher conference competition. The average number of wins for the top eight teams in the West this season is 52, a significant increase from last season's 46.3. For context, none of Denver's four opponents in the 2023 playoffs won more than 45 games. If the Nuggets return to the Finals and face one of the top seven seeds in the Eastern Conference, they will face four opponents who each won at least 47 games.
The Lakers have had a tough time against the Nuggets, going 0-4 this season after being swept in the 2023 West Finals, but they have reason for optimism as they advance to the first round. There is. The 39-year-old James is moving better, shooting much better from the outside, and his supporting cast has been fired up for a full season after making significant changes at last season's trade deadline. Importantly, guard D'Angelo Russell emerged as a consistent weapon after an abysmal showing in the 2023 playoffs. And thanks to James and Davis, the Lakers are one of the few teams that can compete favorably against the Nuggets' big, physical front line.
“This is probably the toughest series since I've been here,” Jokic said Wednesday in Denver. “They're a really talented team. They've done really well. They've added some players. I have a lot of respect for them. Yes, we beat them eight times in a row. Can we talk about that anymore? We have to stop them in transition, especially LeBron, and we have to stop them in the paint. [Davis] There are monsters out there. Get it off the three-point line. The details will make a big difference. ”
The Suns and Timberwolves, who lost to the Nuggets in the first round last year, have also shown progress in terms of chemistry and cohesion. Durant had little time to prepare for the 2023 playoffs due to a midseason trade and ankle injury, while Minnesota center Rudy Gobert threw a punch at teammate Kyle Anderson After receiving a suspension, he entered the postseason with a dip in form.
Phoenix is thin up front and Minnesota's offense still has a lot to improve, but if the two teams meet in the second round, they should push Denver harder than they did a year ago. Meanwhile, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's Oklahoma City Thunder and Luka Doncic's Dallas Mavericks have explosive offenses, improved defenses, and late-season momentum that will make them solid threats for Denver in the West Finals. heading into the playoffs.
“There are 15 other teams that want what we have,” Nuggets manager Michael Malone said Thursday. “We have the World Championship trophy and everyone is trying to take it away from us, which wasn't the case last year. We went into the playoffs with a very hungry spirit. , were trying to do something special. But now you win a championship, and here comes a very hungry Lakers team, angry that we beat them to eight straight wins. And you have Western Conference talent waiting for you in the next round. [Phoenix’s] Kevin Durant, Bradley Beal and Devin Booker are the No. 6 seeds. ”
The Nuggets don't have the luxury of looking that far ahead, but the Boston Celtics have a much more serious final foil looming than last year's Heat. Boston finished the season first in wins (64), point difference (plus-11.3), and offensive efficiency (122.2), and second in defensive efficiency (110.6), with offseason acquisitions Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday. This overwhelmed the competition.
The Celtics' biggest strength may be their conference imbalance. Their first-round opponent was the Heat, who lost Jimmy Butler to a knee injury in Wednesday's play-in game, but defeated the Chicago Bulls 112-91 on Friday to secure the No. 8 seed in the East. Next up will be a second-round matchup against either the Cleveland Cavaliers, who haven't won a series without James since 2003, or the upstart Orlando Magic, who haven't won a series since 2010. Milwaukee's Giannis Antetokounmpo will face off against Philadelphia's Joel Embiid. With major health concerns, Boston has a great chance to breeze through the East before enjoying home court advantage in the finals.
No matter the opponent, Jokic will be Denver's ace. The 29-year-old center averaged 26.4 points, 12.4 rebounds and 9.0 assists, leading the Nuggets to a nine-year career-high 57 wins. With Jokic punishing opponents on the block and attacking from the elbow, the Nuggets' starting lineup posted an impressive +13.6 net rating in his nearly 1,000 minutes of playing time.
“Having the ability to score at will makes his passing even more dynamic,” James said of Jokic. “We've had great passers in the history of our league. We've had great players who are unselfish. But when that's all you can do, teams force you to score and do it.” can be taken away [passing] Away.Guys like Luka and Magic [Johnson] In his heyday, [Jokic] And myself – if you try to take away our pass, we can still be effective. ”
