The Mavericks were close.
They held a slim one-point lead at halftime and outshot the Celtics 29-21 in the fourth quarter (a 22-2 run cut the lead to one with 3:37 left).
Still, that didn't matter.
The Celtics extended their lead in the final minutes of the game and cruised to a 106-99 victory in Dallas, moving one win away from their 18th championship in NBA franchise history.
For the Mavericks to win their second NBA title, they'll have to do something no team has ever done in the playoffs before: win a series after being down 3-0. Before them, 156 teams had tried and failed.
Can Dallas survive and extend the series to a Game 5 in Boston? Or will the Celtics complete the sweep as confetti rains down on the American Airlines Center?
Below are the current odds from various New Jersey sportsbooks, as well as our betting analysis and predictions for Game 4 of the 2024 NBA Finals on Friday night.
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Celtics vs Mavericks spread: Celtics +1.5 (-120), Mavericks +1 (-110)
Despite suffering a heartbreaking loss in Game 3, the Mavericks began Game 4 with a one-point advantage.
The public appears to be taking advantage of the current numbers, with 64 percent currently betting on Boston covering the spread and 56 percent betting on Boston to win.
Sportsbooks also seem to be split on who to support, with FanDuel and Caesars Sportsbook having the Celtics as one-point favorites, while DraftKings Sportsbook, BetMGM and others have the Celtics as underdogs.
For me, it's simple and clear.
While the Mavericks looked their best at times in Game 4, it's hard to argue with the Celtics being underdogs on the road for the second straight game.
Bet on the Celtics to be favored by close to 2 points. If you look at the public betting numbers, you'll see that this line can change as the game draws closer to start.
prediction: Celtics +1.5 (-120)
Celtics vs. Mavericks totals: Over 211.5 points (-105), Under 211.5 points (-105)
The two teams combined to score 61 points in the first quarter, and a total score of over 212.5 points seemed certain to be reached.
But poor shooting in the second quarter, scoring just 40 points, meant the Celtics struggled late.
The Game 3 result marked the fifth straight game Boston has been held below that mark and the fourth time the Mavericks have scored fewer than 211 points in their past five games.
In this situation, if neither team loses form for a period of time, an argument could be made that this will ultimately be an NBA Finals with 205+ points scored.
For my part, I won’t believe it until I see it, and with fewer than 211 points being scored in Game 4, I’m going to bet my money on the under winning.
Nearly every sportsbook in New Jersey has the line set at 211.5 points, with DraftKings and BetMGM currently offering the best price at -110 (bet $110 to win $100).
prediction: Less than 211.5 points (-110)
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Celtics vs Mavericks moneyline: Celtics -106 (bet $106 to win $100), Mavericks -102 (bet $102 to win $100)
Like the spread, this is truly a coin toss, with neither side having a chance of winning.
Kyrie Irving (35 points on 46 percent shooting) had a great comeback in Game 3, but the team was let down by Luka Doncic, one of the reasons they made it to the NBA Finals, who fouled out during a one-possession game with just over four minutes left.
If Doncic had not committed his sixth foul in that situation, it could easily be argued that this series would have ended tonight instead of the 2023-24 season.
The big question is, what can the Mavericks do to slow down Boston's momentum?
The Celtics have won 10 straight games in the playoffs this season, which have come in both high-scoring games that required overtime and low-scoring games, such as in previous NBA Finals games.
There are chances Boston returns a key player in Kristaps Porzingis. He suffered a foot injury in Game 2 of the NBA Finals but is targeting to play in Game 4 despite a previous calf injury that forced him to miss the entire second and third rounds.
Before Game 1, I thought the Mavericks could take this series long and test Boston's depth with Doncic and Irving leading the way.
That's no longer the case.
Expect the trend of close games to continue, with the Celtics finding new ways to win 11 straight games and clinch their 18th championship and first in 16 years.
As for the Finals MVP, Jaylen Brown, who I had as my biggest pick at 7/1 before Game 1, is the consensus -340 favorite (bet $340 to win $100) to win this year's Bill Russell NBA Finals Most Valuable Player Award, and he seems the surest bet.
There are a lot of odds on the board at -110, but the best odds for Boston to complete the sweep are -102 from FanDuel Sportsbook (bet $102 to win $100).
