With an exciting first round of the 2024 NBA Playoffs almost set in stone, it's time to turn your attention to the conference semifinals.
In many ways, this round could signal a changing of the guard in the NBA. LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Joel Embiid and Jimmy Butler have already been knocked out. Kawhi Leonard, Paul George and James Harden could soon join them. Stephen Curry didn't even make the playoffs.
Younger, more dynamic teams are moving forward, like the Oklahoma City Thunder, Denver Nuggets, Minnesota Timberwolves, Indiana Pacers and New York Knicks.
Before these series begin, let's make some bold predictions for all the matchups we know so far.
Jalen Brunson averages over 35 points again
That might seem like an overly bold prediction after a first-round performance in which Jalen Brunson averaged 35.5 points against the Philadelphia 76ers. But reaching that height two rounds in a row is no easy task.
Brunson will get away with it for several reasons.
The Indiana Pacers were a little better defensively in the first round against the injury-hit Milwaukee Bucks, but surrendered 118.9 points per 100 possessions in the regular season. Their slightly improved defense in the playoffs had more to do with the absence of Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard than any dramatic improvement.
Indiana also doesn't have the length to throw to Brunson. Philadelphia had Kelly Oubre Jr., Nicolas Batum, and Tobias Harris sent to him, but Aaron Nesmith is the Pacers' only option who can nearly replicate the Sixers' resistance. The Pacers probably can't remove Pascal Siakam from OG Anunoby.
This series matchup is slightly more favorable for Brunson than against the Sixers, but that's not the only reason he continues to compete.
After a conference finals run with the Dallas Mavericks and the last two postseasons with the Knicks, it's no exaggeration to say that Brunson is one of the biggest players in the NBA playoffs. His career averages are 16.9 points in the regular season and 22.9 points in the playoffs. In the 2023-24 season alone, he went from 28.7 points per game in the regular season to 35.5 points per game so far in the playoffs.
Since his days as a Villanova Wildcat, Brunson has always responded well to the brightest lights. That will continue in the second round.
Tyrese Haliburton will rediscover his 3-point shot
Tyrese Haliburton started this season as an absolute heater for the Pacers. In his first 33 games, he averaged 23.6 points, 12.5 assists and shot 40.3 percent from deep.
He then missed 10 of 11 games with a hamstring injury, but he hasn't looked the same since.
In the final 35 games of the regular season, Haliburton averaged just 16.8 points and 9.3 assists while shooting 32.4 percent from the field. In the Pacers' first round game against the Bucks, he knocked down just 29.6 percent of his 9.0 three-point attempts per game.
Is the hamstring injury still a hindrance or are you dealing with the issue? Back number Despite his recent emergence, Haliburton doesn't look like the same explosive playmaker or outside shooter. At this point in the postseason, the mileage of a long campaign is starting to worry, but it's probably unfair to expect things to suddenly turn around.
That's especially true considering the teams Haliburton will be facing. The Knicks are gritty and play a relentless defense. But for Halliburton, the lid has to come off at some point.
Before this season, Haliburton was a career 40.8 percent 3-point shooter. He's going to play at least a couple of games in this series that resemble his old self.
This might not be enough to beat the Knicks 4 out of 7 times, but it should help keep this series competitive.
OKC defense stops Luka Doncic from shooting 40 percent
Luka Doncic appeared in two regular season games with the Oklahoma City Thunder, averaging 34.0 points and shooting 55.6 percent from the field, but has been hampered this postseason by a knee injury and is currently playing for the Los Angeles Clippers. In the first round, he shot 40.5 percent from the field. And he's going to face a tenacious perimeter defender.
Luguentz Dort appears to be the primary defender against Luka, but OKC could also throw Shai Gilgeous-Alexander or Jaylen Williams at him. And if any of those three go down, the Thunder will immediately rotate and have Chet Holmgren's dynamic rim protector behind them.
This team looked long, athletic and worked hard on defense, which helped them finish fourth in the league in points allowed per 100 possessions during the regular season.
It slows down Luka to personnel, which does exactly that, at least in terms of efficiency.
Luka Doncic will average a triple-double
Even if he struggles to shoot at his typical level, Doncic will average over 25 points in this series (he has never dipped below 30 points per game in the postseason). And by drawing the attention of OKC's best perimeter defender, his teammates get valuable extra time to take a shot after the kickout.
He hasn't averaged double digits in the assist column since the 2021 postseason, but he did average 9.8 this season. And by selling out on drives and pick-and-rolls, the Thunder will give him enough assist opportunities to clear 10 per game in this series.
All that's left is rebounding, and the Dallas Mavericks have Daniel Gafford and Derek Lively to take advantage of OKC's lackluster performance on the board, but that account doesn't cover just how bad the Thunder are. Not fully expressed.
This regular season, they were 27th in offensive rebound percentage and 29th in defensive rebound percentage. Doncic will have plenty of opportunities to grab extra boards here and there, and he's already averaging 9.2 rebounds for his career in the playoffs.
Jamal Murray back on track
Jamal Murray had a lot of heroics in the first round against the Los Angeles Lakers, hitting two game-winning hits in the Nuggets' fifth straight series win. However, he struggled a lot outside of the fourth quarter, shooting just 40.0 percent from the field and 29.4 percent from 3-point range against Los Angeles.
Add in the fact that a calf injury has ruled him out for Game 5 against the Lakers, and Jaden McDaniels could guard him in the second round, and it's natural to be worried about Murray. But the five-loss shutout of LA gave the Nuggets some extra rest, and we can't let one bad shooting series erase everything we know about Murray as a playoff contender. Dew.
Murray has averaged 24.9 points and 6.4 assists in 58 playoff games in his career. He's shooting 39.5 percent from three in those contests. His scoring dropped off a bit in Game 1, but his playmaking was still important. He averaged 7.2 assists in the series.
If McDaniels is Murray's primary opponent, he will continue to do damage as a distributor. And as we've seen time and time again, he'll rise to the occasion as a scorer for key moments in clutch time.
Anthony Edwards becomes series leading scorer
Nikola Jokic is one of the most productive players in NBA history, averaging 27.5 points, 12.3 rebounds, and 7.5 assists in the postseason. Murray had three 40-point games in 2020, including the first round series between the Nuggets and Utah Jazz.
Both players solidified themselves as big-time players heading into last year's championship.
However, the individual scorer in this series was rising star Anthony Edwards, who averaged 31.6 points per game in the 2023 playoffs against the Nuggets and 31.0 points per game against the Phoenix Suns in the first round series. right.
Aaron Gordon is probably the best option to try to slow down Denver, but dedicating him to Edwards would make it too easy for Karl-Anthony Towns and McDaniels. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is a high-end perimeter defender, but he hurt his ankle in Game 5 against the Lakers and is typically more effective against smaller guards. At 225 pounds, Edwards is a tank when compared to other players at his position.
Murray, Peyton Watson and Christian Braun are also likely to target Edwards, but the Nuggets won't be able to shut him down completely.
Even if Edwards were the series' leading scorer, that doesn't mean the Timberwolves will beat the Nuggets. Edwards is going to have a huge amount of accomplishments, but basketball is a team game. And over the past two postseasons, no team has fared better than the Nuggets.
