Penn State has been trying to make the College Football Playoff since 2016. For example, if the playoff had been expanded last year, the Nittany Lions would have visited Ohio State in a first-round game. Instead, they went to the Peach Bowl, suffered an opt-out and lost to Ole Miss. Coach James Franklin called that game a casualty of “moving parts.”
Has Penn State solved its “moving parts” problem heading into the 2024 season? The answer will be known on Aug. 31 when the Nittany Lions visit West Virginia for their season opener. With three new coordinators, the parts will continue to move, especially in the tough environment of a season opener where the Nittany Lions haven't played in 32 years. Clearly, some Big Ten coaches are curious about the moving parts.
Each year, media organizations conduct anonymous surveys to give college football coaches a more open discussion about the strengths and weaknesses of their opponents. Athlon Sports recently Anonymous survey of Big Ten football coachesIn this survey, members of 18 conference staffs rated the talent pool in the expansion conference. While the survey, with its anonymity, carries a certain amount of dishonesty, it is still useful for gauging the potential in 2024. The coaches who discussed Penn State, for example, seemed to focus on its potential.
The study contains three quotes about the Nittany Lions in 2024. Let’s look at each one in context.
Expectations for Pennsylvania State University
“They've been considered a good team for a while now,” an anonymous coach told Athlon, “but never a great team. They made the 12-team playoffs last year, but it didn't really matter because they finished well behind Ohio State and Michigan. The expectation is to compete with those schools, but under coach James Franklin, they've almost always fallen behind them.”
This is a look into the essence of Penn State under Coach Franklin since 2016. The Nittany Lions have won 10 or more games in the regular season five times, including the past two years, but they have never beaten Ohio State or Michigan to advance to the four-team College Football Playoff. The 2023 and 2024 seasons will be the sequel, with wins against every team except Ohio State and Michigan. The Nittany Lions are 0-6 against those two teams over the past three seasons.
Though Michigan isn't on the 2024 schedule, Penn State still faces a tough five-week midseason schedule that includes trips to USC and Wisconsin and home games against Ohio State and Washington. To make it to this year's CFP, Penn State will need to split at least four of its games and win the rest.
RELATED: Penn State football 2024 prediction series: Are the Nittany Lions playoff contenders?
Expectations for Drew Aller
“This season will depend on Aller and how he develops with the new OC.”
That's a fair assessment, but Andy Kotelnicki is only the second offensive coordinator for the Penn State quarterback, who faced a big change last offseason when he moved from Mike Yurcich (who recruited him to Penn State) to Kotelnicki, the former Kansas offensive coordinator who brought a more active approach to the Nittany Lions.
Alar and Kotelnicki seemed to click pretty quickly, at least according to Alar the coordinator. Using aggressive moves and shiftsTheir primary mission will be to improve Penn State's success rate downfield. The big-play passing game has been lackluster for much of 2023, and Kotelnicki and Aller want to revive it.
RELATED: Penn State's offense shows signs of growth in spring
Anticipation of attacks on Allah
“They haven't threatened an elite program with offensive skill players since the days of Saquon Barkley and Trace McSorley,” one coach told Athlon. “You can talk about a million other things, but that's the real difference between them and the conference leaders. OSU and Michigan are threatening with talent. They've got to get to the next level as an offense.”
It worked out beautifully. The Lions certainly had some talented players (notably Pat Friarmuth and Jahan Dotson), and running backs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen were notable. But the offense just couldn't hold its own against the good players at Ohio State and Michigan State the past three years. This year? Penn State is… Questions remain at wide receiver Kotelnicki has to change that or work around it, just like Jurcic had to do last year and it ended up costing him his job.
For more anonymous coaching comments, Athlon Sports Big Ten Coaches Survey.
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AllPennState is the home for Penn State news, opinions and views on the SI.com network. Publisher Mark Wogenrich has covered Penn State for more than 20 years and has followed three coaching staffs, three Big Ten titles and countless great stories. Follow @MarkWogenrich on Twitter.
