As President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump prepare to face off in the 2024 presidential election, their contrasting approaches to technology could significantly shape U.S. technology policy, especially if Trump wins. There is a possibility that it will change.
The U.S. president is a key figure in guiding U.S. policy regarding technologies such as artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and semiconductor chips. The past four years of the Biden administration have focused on competing with China by boosting domestic chip manufacturing and enforcing export controls, while also challenging U.S. technology companies on antitrust issues and forcing federal agencies to It has led by example in the safety development of AI by requiring guidelines for its use to be followed.
If Mr. Trump wins the election, the U.S. could reduce its focus on regulating technologies such as AI, accelerate trade restrictions with China, re-home critical supply chains, and protect national interests.
Regardless of who wins the 2024 election, it's essential that the U.S. president guides the next era of digital technology policy — or Europe will lay the groundwork for tech rules, said Tom Wheeler, a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution and former president of the Federal Communications Commission (FCC). Already, the European Union has adopted the EU AI Act and is in the process of implementing the Digital Markets Act and Digital Services Act, which govern digital platforms.
If we can’t answer these questions, we are very close to a situation where Europe ends up writing the rules. That would be a tragedy.
tom wheelerVisiting Fellow, Brookings Institution
Wheeler said he believes U.S. leadership has largely ignored the changes digital technology has brought to commerce and culture, changes that need to change under the next administration.
“Are we going to keep talking about privacy forever? Are we going to rely on antitrust laws that were enacted in a completely different era? How are we going to deal with issues of trust and truth? For 25 years, we've been… “I turned a blind eye,” Wheeler said. “Our inability to answer these types of questions puts us very close to the point where Europe ends up writing the rules, and that would be a tragedy.”
Biden talks Trump, climate, China, and AI
Climate technology policy will be the biggest difference between the Biden and Trump administrations.
Biden signed the Inflation-Blocking Act, which provides incentives for companies to buy clean energy. In contrast, the previous Trump administration denied climate change and rolled back environmental protections to boost the natural gas, oil and coal industries.
Moreover, while the Biden administration has focused primarily on clean-energy technologies like solar and wind, a second Trump administration could see the focus shift toward nuclear power, said Arthur Herman, a senior fellow and director of the Quantum Alliance Initiative at the Hudson Institute who also served on the National Security Council under the previous Trump administration.
Indeed, Herman said nuclear power is likely to become a core part of the U.S. approach to developing more carbon-free energy under the Trump administration.
“President Trump will bring nuclear power to the forefront of energy and technology policy,” he said.
Herman said China will remain a major focus in the Trump administration's second term. This will affect U.S. tech policy, which is already evident in Trump and Biden's approach to China. Under the Trump administration, tariffs were imposed on Chinese products such as aluminum, steel and solar panels. Meanwhile, the Biden administration implemented export restrictions on advanced AI technologies to China.
“The Trump administration is going to be looking at China's role with a certain degree of skepticism,” Herman said. “How do these technologies support or undermine our national interests, particularly in terms of China's role as a strategic adversary and as a technological and economic competitor?”
Herrmann said climate change policy and China are closely tied to the Trump administration. He cited China as an example of why Trump pulled out of the Paris climate accord on carbon emissions, and Herman said Trump thought it would hurt U.S. interests and favor China.
“The Biden administration's environmental policies, in particular, will be seen as economically and strategically advantageous to China from the perspective of Trump and the Republican Party,” he said.
AI has also been front and center for Biden and Congress in the last year, but Wheeler said AI regulation will be more affected by whether the House or Senate wins control after the November elections. The Biden administration has already signaled the White House's limitations in regulating the use of AI.
“Everybody thinks the presidency is this huge, powerful position,” Wheeler said. “Obviously, there are limitations to what can be defined in a situation like this, and there will need to be legislation.”
Return of domestic manufacturing and collaboration with major technology companies
The CHIPS and Science Act, passed under the Biden administration, aims to boost domestic chip manufacturing. Multiple companies have already received millions of dollars from the CHIPS Act to build chip manufacturing facilities in the United States.
Herman said the reshoring of U.S. industry could continue under the second Trump administration, including efforts to refocus tariffs as a way to force international competitors to negotiate better terms for U.S. products and services. He said that it was a highly effective initiative.
However, Herman believes that under the Trump administration, government funding for these efforts will be reduced, with an emphasis on “constructive taxation” to help private companies invest in technology research and development where they see opportunities. There is. He expects the Trump administration to encourage private industry to take on technological challenges by “creating an environment that supports investment capital in these areas.”
Herman said there are also likely to be differences in how Biden and Trump approach big tech companies such as Microsoft, Google, Amazon and Meta. Both administrations have targeted both companies over antitrust concerns, but the Biden administration is seeking to partner with both companies on understanding technologies such as AI.
Herman said that under the second Trump administration, there will be a backlash against big tech companies in terms of their ability to influence regulation.
“Big tech companies will start to distance themselves and be viewed with suspicion,” he said.
Ultimately, it's difficult to predict how a second Trump administration will approach specific technology policies, given the Trump administration's history of making policy decisions personal, said Wheeler of the Brookings Institution. Stated. Mr. Wheeler cited Mr. Trump's anger at media outlets such as NBC and questioning whether the FCC should revoke the station's license. He also pointed out that Trump opposes the AT&T-Time Warner merger because he hates CNN.
“This is a very volatile situation,” Wheeler said. “I think there's no question that he's going to mount a movement against the federal government, but at the same time there's the question of how he's going to use that power for his own needs. Who knows what that means?”
For more information on Trump and Biden's approaches to technology policy, see TechTarget Editorial's guide to the candidates' stances on technology.
Mackenzie Holland is a senior news writer covering major technology companies and federal regulation. Prior to joining TechTarget Editorial, he Wilmington Star-News Crime and education reporter Wabash Plain Dealer.
