Please take a look UFC 303 best bets The pay-per-view event on Saturday, June 29th will feature Alex Pereira vs. Jiri Prochazka in the main event.
UFC 303 will take place at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. ESPN will air the early preliminaries card (6 p.m. ET) and the regular preliminaries card (8 p.m. ET), followed by the main card at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV (cost: $79.99).
Despite some big changes to the card, including a makeshift but not-to-be-missed UFC 303 main event, there are plenty of betting opportunities on Saturday.
So where should you bet? Our team has identified four matches and predictions worth betting on from Saturday's packed card.
You can find analysis and predictions for these matches, plus Sean Zerillo's predictions using DraftKings odds, below.
Odds on the fight as of Saturday evening, via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 303 using a DraftKings promo code.
Money Line Prediction
Prop Projection
UFC 303 odds and best bets
Billy Ward: Michelle Waterson-Gomez vs. Gillian Robertson
Action Network Staff Writer
Fighter strike: Approximately 7:25 p.m. ET
I get it. Betting around -180 on perhaps the least anticipated fight on the UFC 303 card (depending on how you feel about the heavyweight division) isn't a very exciting choice. In my defense, I'm not encouraging you to necessarily watch the fight. Just bet.
But in terms of the chances of getting the biggest return on your bet, this just might be it. Gillian Robertson (-175) is 10-6 in the UFC and is in the prime of her career at age 29. She has won three of her last four fights, with her lone loss coming by a relatively tough decision to Tabatha Rich.
She is ranked one spot below her UFC 303 opponent Michelle Waterson-Gomez (+145), but Waterson-Gomez has just one win in her past seven fights, and that win wasn't very convincing – a split decision victory over Angela Hill in a bout that was rated in Hill's favor by many in the media.
Waterson has faced slightly tougher opponents than Robertson in that time frame, but she is also 38 years old. Her best years are clearly behind her, and even at the peak, her record was mostly “boring decision wins.”
This fight could get pretty ugly in the stands. Both fighters have negative striking differentials in the UFC Octagon and few knockdowns. Robertson has a huge advantage in grappling and athleticism.She has wins over several UFC flyweight contenders in grappling competitions, including submission wins over Rose Namajunas and Katlyn Chookagian.
Even if this fight is primarily a stand-up affair, Waterson-Gomez's typical strategy of throwing punches in the air a foot in front of her opponent won't be all that convincing to the judges, so one or two careless takedowns could give Robertson the victory. I like her at -180 moneyline because an early win would make her an even bigger favorite.
pick: Gillian Robertson (-180 at Caesars)
Shawn Zerrillo: Ian Machado Garry vs. Michael Page
Action Network Staff Writer
Fighter strike: Approximately 10:05 p.m. ET
Ian Machado Garry is not well-liked by UFC fans due to his lackluster fighting style and awkward personality. He has come close to losing four of his seven UFC fights, giving him a career record of 14-0. As a result, some people bet on Garry because they want to see him get knocked out, while others don't think he's an exceptionally high-level fighter.
I'm not a fan of Garry (-166) but I do see him as a good welterweight prospect, and Michael “Venom” Page (+140) may be less competitive compared to his previous opponents.
Garry is younger and a much faster fighter. As I always say, when there is at least a 10-year difference between opponents in the UFC, the younger fighter wins about 13% more than expected, winning 71% of the time at average odds of -136 (implying 57.8%). There may be a difference in effectiveness if the fighters are 18 vs. 28 years old; in that scenario, the 18-year-old fighter is further away from his physical prime. But the difference between Garry and Paige (26 vs. 37) puts “MVP” on the wrong side of the age curve.
While Page has a five-inch longer reach, Garry has a huge leg length advantage and will frustrate his opponents from long range with his calf kicks and leg kicks.
Page uses unique footwork, movement and unconventional attacking angles to frustrate opponents, almost like a British Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson, but despite his striking power, he's a low-fight fighter who looks to land big moments rather than buy time on the clock.
Garry is the more aggressive striker, but he also has a big grappling advantage in this fight. He comes from a judo background and spent a lot of time beating his opponents with grappling during his welterweight title run with Cage Warriors. And he must continue to work on his grappling positions while training full-time in Chute Boxe in Brazil. And if Kevin Holland had been more aggressive with his grappling, he might have won a close decision against MVP.
Garry is the faster fighter and has the tools (kicking and grappling) to frustrate Page from a distance and take the lead on the scorecards. To be honest, I think Page's last fight against Geoff Neal was a tougher test because he's a stronger hitter and better counter grappler than Page. He's proven he can strike and grapple with the best fighters in the division, and I think Page is close enough to get the knockout in this fight.
It's certainly within the realm of possibility. Page punches hard and Garry has shown that his chin could be an obstacle to him winning or holding a UFC title for long. Still, I expect the Irishman to fight for a title soon, and I expect him to use his versatility to put on another clean performance on Saturday.
Bet Garry on the moneyline at -180 (expected -200) and consider adding his decision prop (expected +130, listed +150) or submission prop (expected +900, listed +1000) to your round robin ticket.
pick: Ian Machado Garry (-145 with BetMGM)
Dan Stapp: Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopez
Senior Editor, Action Network
Fighter strike: Approximately 11:25 p.m. ET
This fight was late moved from featherweight to lightweight, which likely favors 155-pound challenger Brian Ortega (+130), but I think his UFC 303 co-main event opponent Diego Lopez (-155) still has a lot of advantage in this bout.
I am concerned that this fight is on short notice for Ortega, that his durability is really starting to wane, and that Lopez is looking to take advantage of it all to secure his latest victory.
The 29-year-old Lopez has won five of his six fights (all by stoppage) and has shown the growth and maturity necessary to evolve from UFC prospect to UFC challenger. Not every rookie passes the test, but Lopez has recent 90-second wins over Pat Sabatini and Sodiq Yusuf and could take another step up the ladder with a win over former title challenger Ortega.
As my colleague Sean Zerrillo noted in his UFC 303 odds preview, Ortega is poor at winning and losing a minute, and I don't think he's likely to win the damage/effectiveness contest against Lopez, even if he has the advantage, because Lopez continues to be effective even when his back is turned.
But I don't know if that will matter. Lopez has solid takedown defense and combines it with hard fighting to try to finish fights, and as Dan Tom noted in his Ortega vs. Lopez preview, there are certain stylistic matchups that work to his advantage.
I've been a fan of “T-City” for years and have a heart for him, but I think Lopez is the next big challenger and he showed why with a hard-fought win in Saturday night's co-main event.
I bet Lopez at -138 and I'll go down to -155.
pick: Diego Lopez (-138 with Betway)
Tony Sartori: Alex Pereira vs. Jiri Prochazka
Action Network Staff Writer
Fighter strike: Approximately 11:55 p.m. ET
Saturday's UFC main event will feature a light heavyweight title bout, with Alex Pereira (-142) defending his belt against Jiri Prochazka (+120). Pereira started out as a -175 favorite to win, but that line has since dropped to its current price.
I agree with that opinion and think it's worth spending extra money to support a team that is likely to lose.
These are two of the strongest boxers in the world and either fighter could win this bout by knockout, which is the most likely outcome regardless of which fighter you root for.
Pereira knocked out Prochazka in the last title bout, which is why he comes in as a heavy favorite, but I have a few reasons to favor Ijiri this time around.
First, Prochazka was winning the first bout before he was caught, leading 10-9 on all three official scorecards after the first round.
Secondly, I think Prochazka’s octagon rust may have played a part in that bout, given that it had been 17 months since he beat Glover Teixeira in Brazil to win the title.
Either way, in the end, I would back either fighter with a plus prize in this bout because they both have one-touch power and some of the best striking in the world, but in this case, Prohaska is the one who brings the value in a bout that I feel is more of a coin flip than the odds suggest.
If Israel Adesanya can beat Pereira at 185 pounds, Prochazka can certainly do the same at 205 pounds.
pick: Jiri Prochazka (+135 at Caesars)
