Please check UFC 304 best bets we Expert Choices and Predictions Tune in to the pay-per-view event on Saturday, July 27th.
UFC 304 will take place at Co-op Live in Manchester, England, but will air in North America in its traditional pay-per-view timeslot: Preliminary cards on ESPN+ (6 p.m. ET) and ESPN2 (8 p.m. ET), followed by the main card at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN PPV+.
With 14 bouts and a host of big name names on tonight's lineup, UFC 304 is one of the biggest events in recent memory.
So where should you bet? Our team has identified four matches and six selections on Saturday's UK card that are worth a bet on.
You can find analysis and predictions for these matches, plus Sean Zerillo's predictions using DraftKings odds, below.
Odds for UFC 304 fights as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 304 using a DraftKings promo code.
Money Line Prediction
Prop Projection
UFC 304 odds and best bets
Tony Sartori: Oban Elliott vs. Preston Parsons
Action Network Contributor
Fighter exit: Around 7:25 p.m.
Early prelims for UFC 304 on Saturday will feature Auburn Elliott (+136) facing Preston Parsons (-162) in a welterweight bout. Elliott will be looking to build on a strong start to his UFC career, going 2-0, which includes two decision wins.
Elliott's most recent victory over Val Woodburn was a victory that consisted of both long-distance striking and superior wrestling on the mat, making her strong enough to win any fight that comes her way on the mat.
That's good news for this matchup with Parsons.
Is Parsons the better mixed martial artist? Yes, he has the natural advantage, but Parsons also favors a wrestling game plan, so the majority of this fight will likely take place on the mat.
I think that's bad news for Parsons for two main reasons: First, Parsons' fitness is questionable, which always bodes badly in a match that's expected to last 15 minutes of wrestling.
Secondly, Elliott is the stronger of the two wrestlers and could easily make a comeback and finish the round in top position, thus stealing the round even if he didn't win, which is what judges often do when one wrestler is on top in a close match.
I think Parsons is the better fighter, but this is clearly a bad matchup for him and I think Elliott is definitely a live underdog at +122.
Pick: Auburn Elliott ML (+130 at Caesars Sportsbook) | Play until +115
Billy Ward: Christian Leroy Duncan vs. Gregory Rodriguez
Action Network Staff Writer
Fighter exit: Around 10:25 p.m.
The general rule I follow when it comes to gambling and fantasy sports is to bet on what the athletes will actually do, not what they will do. should Yes, even if fighters have not proven that they always take the easy way out, it is easy to blame losing bets on not following a supposedly ideal game plan.
I bring that rule up because I'm going to bet “Robocop” (pronounced “ho-bo-cop”) soon to break it. Gregory Rodriguez is an elite Jiu-Jitsu fighter with national-level wrestling experience who has a penchant for brawling with strikers despite a weak chin.
There are a few reasons to go against the usual here. First and most important is price. I don't bet on hope, but I'm happy to take the plus money. If Rodriguez (+110) wrestles effectively against Christian Leroy Duncan (-130), he'll look like a -1000 favorite.
Another thing that's unique to this fight is that Rodriguez is unlikely to back down completely in the stand-up. He's a solid striker with plenty of power. Duncan is more agile and longer, but the takedown threat from Rodriguez should thwart the former basketball player's jumping and spinning attacks.
Even if they stand in the middle and play Rock 'Em Sock 'Em Robots, Rodriguez might land first, which is the worst-case scenario for this fight, and it's not that bad. Not bad enough to justify missing out on a little extra money betting on Rodriguez.
Pick: Gregory Rodriguez (+118 on Caesars)
Shawn Zerrillo: Bobby Green vs. Paddy Pimblett
Senior Staff Writer, Action Network
Fighter exit: Around 10:55 p.m.
Bobby Green, who recently changed his first name to “King”, started the matchup as a -190 favourite (65.5% chance) but has dropped to -115 (53.5% chance) at the time of writing and may be favoured by his opponent Paddy Pimblett on match day.
Paddy is nine years younger and the stronger athlete, but Green is physically stronger and the better mixed martial artist with far more cage experience (48 pro bouts).
Paddy's success in this bout should be centered in the early going. Green is just two fights removed from a brutal multiple knockout loss to Jarin Turner that the referee stopped too late, and he also wobbled early in his next bout against Jim Miller at UFC 300.
Still, Green brushed aside concerns about his lack of speed or athleticism, recording 319 effective strike attempts (21.2 per minute) for the bout, landing 82 of his 121 effective strike attempts (67%) in the third round alone. Paddy had a 41% strike defense compared to Green's 62%, but he would have a heart attack if “Bobby” kept up with him at that pace late in the rounds.
I'd be disappointed, but not surprised, if Pimblett takes Green down early, but it would make sense given where they are in their careers. Green has a solid takedown defense (74%), but if both fighters are still healthy, Pimblett could take him down and get the advantage. Still, Green is a capable enough defensive grappler and scrambler that I expect him to eventually get back up without taking too much damage.
Paddy has always faded in the third round of a fight, especially after a lengthy grappling exchange, and he wore down in the second half of his last two bouts against Tony Ferguson and Jared Gordon.
Expect Pimblett to take an early lead, but if he can't get the better of Green, I expect the newly-designated King to mount a solid comeback in the second half of the match.
I’ll hold off on betting on Green until closer to game time to see if Pimblett wins more money, but I’ll also bet Green up to -125 (expected -135) on the moneyline and consider betting on him at odds (+1600) to win in the third round against a potentially tired Pimblett, plus I’ll make a live bet on Green any time after the first round.
Pick: Bobby Green (-125 or better; hold on for the plus money) | Green to win the third round (+1600 on DraftKings) | Green live after the first round
Dan Stapp: Tom Aspinall vs. Curtis Blaydes
Senior Editor, Action Network
Fighter exit: Around 11:25 p.m.
This bet seems a bit too simple, but if Tom Aspinall wins the co-main event at UFC 304 and defends the interim belt (which I think he will), it probably won't be long before it becomes clear.
In most cases, I would look for an over-the-top heavyweight like Curtis Blaydes, who has the wrestling necessary to take the fight to the canvas if the stand-up doesn't work.
Unfortunately for Blaydes (+310), he won't get much rest on the mat if he tries to avoid striking with Aspinall (-395), whose submission skills are just as dangerous on the mat.
That's why so many MMA fans (myself included) think so highly of Aspinall: we've seen 20 years of awful heavyweight fighters — slow, sluggish, sloppy, exhausted, stiff, breathless, sad, small, too big — so it's hard not to get excited about a young (31-year-old) big man who seems like the perfect fighter.
Of course, that's how I felt about Blades initially and I still rate the 33-year-old quite highly in a very aging division, but I think Aspinall is a step above and the moneyline odds reflect that.
I wouldn't bet against Aspinall as a 4-1 moneyline play, especially in a weight class as shaky as heavyweight and with an opponent as skilled as Blaydes, but as Dan Tom detailed in his Aspinal vs. Blaydes preview, most of Aspinall's win conditions are up front.
It won't be easy and I expect there will be one or two close calls, but ultimately I think Aspinall will impress the Manchester crowd with an early KO or submission.
As Shawn Zerrillo suggested in his UFC 304 odds mega preview, here's how you can get the betting options you want: I go to bet365 and use the Same Game Parlay menu, with Aspinall on the moneyline and under 1.5 rounds at odds of -120.
Pick: SGP – Tom Aspinall & under 1.5 rounds (-120 on bet365)
