Streaming live on DAZN from the Footprint Center in Phoenix, Arizona, Bam Rodriguez will take on lineal champion Juan Francisco Estrada. This matchup is highly anticipated for a variety of reasons, starting with style. Pairing Estrada, a classic boxer, with an aggressive pressure fighter, on paper it looks like a can't miss main event.
(Credit: Amanda Westcott/Matchroom)
Then there's Estrada, who's gotten wiser with age. Which begs the question: Can Juan teach young Bam one more lesson? The 19-0 San Antonio native will surely be looking to take the torch from the hands of a first-ballot Hall of Famer. No matter who raises his hand on Saturday, the fans will win what should be a hotly contested game.
The old adage “youth needs service” applies very well when describing boxing prospects and rising stars. It generally means that young people should be given the opportunity to grow, learn and express themselves, and be treated with patience and understanding to nurture their potential.
At 24 years old, Bam is in ideal shape to get here and should be ready for another real test. Returning to the fight, the skill level and experience on display in the ring is sure to excite this boxing podcaster. Saturday's bout will be Bam Rodriguez's sixth fight since February 2022, so this is the perfect segue into the first item on our list of key points for this fight.
While Estrada has one of the most accomplished résumés in 21st century boxing, Juan has been out of the ring for about 17 months — a time off that's problematic for an elite counterpuncher who relies on timing — and Bam is not a stranger to knockouts, let alone being much more active.
With only 19 professional fights under his belt, facing such greats as Srisaket Sor Rungvisai, Carlos Cuadras and Sonny Edwards is no mean feat to be taken lightly. Both boxers have excellent jabs, but Bam has the highest jab landing rate per round and is the most accurate in the sport.
Estrada is a top-tier counterpuncher, but he has landed more power punches than Bam, who out-landed Gervonta Davis in power punch percentage, 48.8 to 48.2, according to Compubox.
Bam must be consistent in his jab and consistently break through Estrada's defense to win more rounds. Throwing combos is great, but Bam must not make the mistake of standing in front of Estrada. In addition to his jab and body work, he must use angles to get inside. Rodriguez must force Estrada into the ropes or into a corner to stifle his opponent's attacks. Bam has moved up to 115 pounds, but that won't be a big difference considering he has fought at that weight three times in recent years.
Not to mention Juan Francisco's talent, but is he too old to beat Bam? He's been out of the ring for over a year, which puts him at a disadvantage. Add to that the fact that he's not in his prime, and it'll be a bit of a tough fight. Don't get me wrong, I'm a boxing fanatic. Let's not forget that Estrada has never been stopped. I'm a fan of Estrada, but his last best performance will probably be between 2020 and 2021. I mentioned the style earlier, but three fights with Roman Gonzalez won't hurt Juan's game plan preparation.
Gonzalez sometimes seems to be undervalued defensively because of his offensive play and the many battles he's had. Roman is an underrated defender in my opinion. Let's not forget Estrada has been in some tough battles as well. The question is whether he can muster the energy and mentality to pull off the upset on Saturday.
Estrada will have to win the early rounds, which will be a tough task considering how fast Bam will attack early. Juan will try to set traps and lure Bam into a counter. Also, unless ring rust plays a major role, Estrada has a proven track record of landing the harder punches on offense and defense. If Estrada constantly changes direction and effectively counters Rodriguez's jab, Bam's offensive creativity will be limited. Bam will rely on his jab, attacking angles, and speed of work to wear down Juan Francisco as the rounds progress.
If this fight had taken place after an impressive bout between the 115-pound champions, or even a few years ago, this lifelong boxing fan would be backing Juan Francisco Estrada to win. We've seen many older, high-level boxers lackluster in recent years, and inactivity is a big factor. The advantage a boxer has in a 55-45 or 60-40 fight greatly improves their chances of winning. It won't be easy, but Bang will fight hard and get a competitive win.
My official prediction is that Bam Rodriguez will win by majority vote.
Written by Chris Carlson, Host/Producer of The Rope A Dope Radio Podcast Available at www.blogtalkradio.com/ropeadoperadio Follow on Twitter: @RopeADopeRadio
