The most popular pick among draft analysts for the Hawks to use their No. 1 pick on is French big man Alexandre Sarr. The 7'1″, 220 pound forward is projected to be a key defensive player in the NBA. Sarr seems to be the top choice among Hawks fans, but there is still debate over who will actually be the No. 1 pick. Sarr is undoubtedly the top pick, but there are still three weeks until the Hawks officially get their No. 1 pick.
Comparisons between Sarr and the No. 1 overall pick have been plentiful, with Cleveland forward Evan Mobley being a popular one, but ESPN's Jeremy Wu made a very interesting comparison about the French prospect today.
High End: Jaren Jackson Jr.
Low End: Nick Claxton
“The blueprint for Sarr's role at the next level is similar to Jackson's, providing Memphis with quality spacing and elite paint protection while switching between power forward and center. Sarr has a long way to go to reach Jackson's level as a shooter, but his ceiling is within reach with his massive, mobile 7-foot-1 frame, making him a quality long-term prospect.”
If Sarr doesn't develop at that rate, he could be a solid contributor like Claxton, who spent five seasons with the Nets in a defensive-minded role but hasn't made any real offensive leaps.
At the end of the day, if Sarr turns out to be anything like either of those players, the Hawks will win, but if Sarr turns out to be anything like Jackson Jr., the Hawks' ceiling will be significantly higher.
Jackson Jr. is one of the best defenders in the NBA when healthy and was named the NBA Defensive Player of the Year in 2023. He was also a two-time All-Defense selection (2022, 2023) and led the NBA in blocked shots twice (2022, 2023). Having a player with that kind of ability who can also stretch the floor offensively would mean a lot to the Hawks, especially if they choose to keep Trae Young. Having a player with that kind of potential alongside Young, Johnson and Onyeka Okongwu could raise the Hawks' ceiling considerably.
But what if Sarr turns out to be more like Claxton than Jackson Jr.? He'll still be a big force defensively, but Claxton doesn't have much of an offensive game outside of being a rim-running threat. If Sarr can't develop a reliable offensive game that includes shooting and driving to the basket, spacing will be an issue. Sarr has the talent to do that, but he has the biggest question mark heading into the draft.
He would be a very talented, impactful defender, exactly what the Hawks need on that side of the court, and his presence would give them a boost in the area they need it most.
If they acquire Sarr, I think it will hasten Clint Capela's departure from the Hawks because I think Sarr will play center in the league (or power forward). Atlanta is short on manpower at the position, and if they take Sarr with the first pick, he will need to play ample minutes immediately and not off the bench. Capela was already a trade candidate due to his expiring contract and age. The biggest question is whether Sarr and Onyeka Okongwu can play together on the court. Okongwu has primarily played center during his time with the Hawks and rarely shares the court with another big man, but head coach Quin Snyder tried a lineup last year that had Capela and Okongwu on the court together, albeit for limited time.
According to Cleaning the Glass, Okongwu and Capela have only played 279 possessions together this season, and their scoring differential when sharing the court was +2.1. The problem is that this sample size is too small and there isn't enough evidence to say definitively that Okongwu can play the No. 4 well.
If Sarr and Okongwu were to play together, there would be big questions about spacing the floor. Okongwu showed a desire to take more 3-pointers last season, but made just 23 of 69 attempts (33%). It's possible that he would have taken more 3-pointers had he not been injured, but there are still big question marks over his 3-point shooting. Combine that with Sarr's questionable offensive play and ability to space the floor, and things could get tricky for Atlanta.
But Okongwu and Sarr's chemistry isn't the only question. Jalen Johnson made some big strides offensively last season, including an improved three-point shot. Johnson shot 28.8% from three in 2022-2023, but improved to 35.5% on 71-200 attempts this season. Could there be more of a breakout in his future? It would help if Atlanta decides to acquire Sarr and not trade Okongwu.
But with these three on the court, the defensive chemistry will be very interesting. Atlanta's best lineups have included Johnson and Okongwu, and while it's a small sample size, you can't help but think there's something there. If Johnson and Okongwu take a step forward to space the court, this lineup could be dangerous in the future. The ability of Johnson, Okongwu and Sarr to switch and defend multiple positions is something Atlanta didn't have with Trae Young, and it will help hide his defensive shortcomings.
His offensive end is a question mark. He's not a great shooter, nor does he finish through contact. Additionally, he hasn't been a very good screener so far, but that's an trait he can improve upon. Playing with either Young or Murray would help him adjust offensively, but he still needs to make a lot of improvements on that side of the court to reach his ceiling.
While it can be argued that Sarr would be a good fit for the Hawks, he's not a perfect prospect, and it will be interesting to see what the Hawks front office thinks about his fit and limitations with this team.
There are three weeks left until the draft.
