In the latest edition of The Athletic's 2024 NBA Mock Draft, Sam Veceny repeated a familiar refrain: Scouts don't believe in the upside of any prospect. He cites comparisons to the infamous 2013 draft, where Anthony Bennett was surprisingly taken No. 1. But he also made his own concerns more specific, offering a clear comparison to his draft position the past two years.
This top-ranked class is clearly considered the weakest of the past decade. Last year, I had five players in my Tier 1 or Tier 2: Victor Wembaneyama, Scoot Henderson, Cam Whitmore, Brandon Miller, and Armen Thompson. We had four players the year before: Chet Holmgren, Paolo Banchero, Jabari Smith Jr., and Jaden Ivey, so I'm not particularly stingy with their performance. To me, no player in this draft class has even reached the Tier 2 level.
This is also sure to spark a lot of discussion, where teams could legitimately focus on drafting players based on need, as opposed to the typical “best available player.” It also leads to rare situations. This could be an advantage for Rip City in a year where they probably want to avoid drafting a new guard. Vesenier treated this mock draft accordingly and made a draw to select the placement of his team. And don't you know that? As a result of the lottery, the Portland Trail Blazers were selected as the first pick.
1. Portland Trail Blazers: Zachary Lizacher | 6-8 Wing/Forward | 19 years old | JL Buhl
Lizacher remains in first place for now. There's a good chance this won't end there, and draft training will likely play an important role in that process. The NBA is always looking for big wing/forward types who can knock down shots, defend at a reasonable level, and play with the ball in their hands. Therefore, Lizacher is currently the number one candidate. More teams will see his game as valuable to their team and able to fit into a flexible role. The race is wide open in first place, but with his handicap, I think Lizach will be picked by more teams than any other prospect.
This isn't the first time Portland has been linked to Lizacher in mock drafts. He's the closest thing to a top-five lock in the draft for the time being. Portland ended up getting a late pick in the second-choice lottery as Golden State improved and moved down the lottery.
14. Portland Trail Blazers: Ja Kobe Walter | 6-5 wing | 19 years old | Baylor
Walter has had his ups and downs this season, averaging 14.7 points and 4.5 rebounds per game. Much of his struggles can be explained by inconsistent shooting. Walter was an excellent marksman in high school, but he has shot just 33.9 percent from three so far this season. In Big 12 play this year, Walter shot just 40 percent from 2-point range and 29.1 percent from 3-point range. It is tough. He also wasn't as good defensively as expected.
However, returning to the hierarchy situation, it is helpful to first define the hierarchy. Unfortunately, this is quite relative and there is no exact definition of each tier. For the purposes of this article, it is relatively reasonable to roughly define the following layers:
Tier 1: Consensus top pick in most drafts.Future All-NBA player and possible Hall of Famer
Tier 2: NBA All-Star level player, maybe All-NBA Third Team in the right year.
Tier 3: Quality rotation players who could reach the All-Star Game in the right scenario.
Tier 4: NBA rotation players
Tier 5: Fringe rotation player, but good enough to be on the bench.
You can also define hierarchies a little differently. But this leaves big questions for the Blazers and their fans.
Is the talent level in the 2024 NBA Draft really that low, with no tier 1 or 2 prospects?
Mock drafts feature the same prospects throughout the draft with little sign of consensus, a concept almost unheard of in previous drafts. Could this also lead to underestimation of some players? Also drafted in 2013, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Rudy Gobert, and CJ McCollum all developed into highly successful NBA players. We can't ignore that some key prospects could be lost and many teams could be banging their heads in two years.
However, in the meantime, you can provide player rankings and tiers in the comments.
