Alex Pereira vs. Jiri Prochazka Prediction, Time: UFC 303

MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC's biggest fights, and today we take a closer look at the UFC 303 main event, which took place just two weeks ago, between light heavyweight champion Alex Pereira and Jiri Prochazka.

Alex Pereira UFC 303 Preview

Staple Information:

• Record: 10-2 MMA, 7-1 UFC
• Height: 6'4″ Age: 36 Weight: 205 lbs Reach: 79″
• Last fight: knockout victory over Jamahal Hill (April 13, 2024)
• Camp: Teixeira MMA/Glover's Garage (Danbury, Connecticut)
• Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox/Kickboxing
• Risk Management: Good

Supplementary information:
+ UFC Light Heavyweight Champion
+ Former UFC Middleweight Champion
+ 5x Glory Middleweight Champion
+ Glory Light Heavyweight Title
+ Professional kickboxing record: 33-7 (21 KO wins)
+ Amateur kickboxing record: 25-3
+ Brazilian Jiu Jitsu Brown Belt
+ 8 KO wins
+ 4 first round appearances
+ Knockout Power
^ Excellent proprioception and accuracy
+ Devastating left hook and right cross
^ Make good use of splits and counters
+ Dangerous knee and leg kicks
+ Strong inside the clinch
^ Underhook, overhook, separation
+ Show your improvement in your grappling game
+/- 0-1 in MMA rematches (3-3 in kickboxing rematches)

Jiri Prochazka UFC 303 Preview

UFC fighter Jiri Prochazka during the weigh-in ceremony for UFC 300 at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, USA on April 12, 2024. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas – USA TODAY Sports

Staple Information:

• Record: MMA 30-4-1, UFC 4-1
• Height: 6'3″ Age: 31 Weight: 205 lbs Reach: 80″
• Last fight: TKO victory over Aleksandar Rakic ​​(April 13, 2024)
• Camp: Jetsaam Gym BRNO (Czech Republic)
• Stance/Striking Style: Switch Stance/Muay Thai
• Risk Management: Average

Supplementary information:
+ Former UFC Light Heavyweight Champion
+ 2x RIZIN FF Light Heavyweight Champion
+ 2x GFC Light Heavyweight Champion
+ Amateur Muay Thai Honors
+ 26 KO wins
+ 3 submission wins
+ 23 first-round appearances
+ Knockout Power
+ Aggressive pace and pressure
+ Sporadic feints and footwork
^ Change stance/close deception distance
+ Accurate Right Hand
^ Come forward and take the counter
+ Powerful kicks and knees
+ Practical grappling ability
^ Scramble violently from the bottom
+/- Willing to take damage
+/- 1-0 in MMA rematches

Alex Pereira vs. Jiri Prochazka: What to watch: The second strike

NEW YORK, NY – NOVEMBER 11: Alex Pereira of Brazil punches out Jiri Prochazka of the Czech Republic in their UFC light heavyweight championship bout at the UFC 295 event at Madison Square Garden on November 11, 2023 in New York City. (Photo by Sarah Steer/Getty Images)

With Conor McGregor out of the main event, the UFC was forced to scramble and book a second rematch between Pereira and Prochazka.

Their first bout was a hard-fought affair back in November, where, despite all three judges awarding the first round to Prochazka, Pereira was able to easily take the rounds with his opponent's leg kicks.

That said, Prochazka has done a good job of incorporating level-changing threats to open up offensive opportunities in the stands.

Whether it was Prochazka's signature right punch or an uppercut off a fake takedown, the former light heavyweight champion was able to feint and use this dynamic to his advantage to move forward (as opposed to the usual long karate-style frames and chakra-charging postures he relies on).

Still, this approach didn't change the fact that Prochaska's aggression came at a serious cost.

Pereira got to his feet and finished the first round, finally overcoming his aggressive onslaught and knocking Prochazka out of the air with a legendary left hook.

Prochazka appeared to collapse on one leg as he struggled to recover, but a follow-up elbow from Pereira knocked him unconscious for a moment, and the referee called the bout over.

Alex Pereira vs. Jiri Prochazka Analysis: Potential Grappling Threatening

New York City, New York, USA, November 11, 2023. Jiri Prochazka (red gloves) fights Alex Pereira (blue gloves) during UFC 295 at Madison Square Garden. Credit: Wendell Crews – USA TODAY Sports

Much has been said about Prochazka’s grappling potential both pre-fight and post-fight, so many will be curious to see what happens when this bout returns to that territory.

As I mentioned in my previous analysis of this bout, Prochazka has steadily improved her wrestling technique in recent years.

Most of those performances have come in the scrambling and defensive departments, but Prochazka also showed some offensive acumen when he beat Pereira last November.

Whether Prochaska intended it or not, he made “Poitan” pay for his habit of threatening a guillotine to defend a takedown by making him an offer he couldn't refuse with a single head-outside look. Having managed to get Pereira to commit, Prochaska was able to successfully complete his lift and clear his hips enough to avoid danger.

But despite some good shots from the top side, Prohaska couldn't hold off Pereira for long.

Pereira was able to use his signature overhook with the help of the fence to walk up the wall and get some distance, but considering the tougher fight is probably in Prochaska's favor on paper, I wouldn't rule out Prochaska returning to form with more takedowns this Saturday.

Alex Pereira vs Jiri Prochazka odds:

Oddsmakers and the general public are slightly favoring the reigning champions, with Pereira at -142 and Prochazka at +112 on FanDuel.

Alex Pereira vs Jiri Prochazka predictions, picks

NEW YORK, NY – NOVEMBER 11: Alex Pereira of Brazil embraces Jiri Prochazka of the Czech Republic during their UFC light heavyweight championship fight during the UFC 295 event at Madison Square Garden on November 11, 2023 in New York City. (Photo by Sarah Steer/Getty Images)

Whether these two fight in a dark alleyway or outside of a full-blown fighting camp, it's hard to argue that either one is the overwhelming favorite from a betting standpoint, though I would agree that Pereira is the overwhelming favorite.

Steep intangibles aside, the dynamics of this fight remain largely the same when considering Prochaska’s nature.

Prochazka excels at flashy knockouts, but his fragile defense leaves him vulnerable to damage that often means his victories require a comeback — and taking that much damage against a fighter like Pereira is never a good idea.

So, this time too I will be on Poatan's side.

Despite not having the most impressive rematch record on paper (3-3 in kickboxing, 0-1 in MMA), Pereira has shown he comes into rematches well prepared for his opponents. In fact, looking back at his kickboxing rematches, there's a strong argument to be made that some of them could have been rated differently.

Furthermore, Prochazka has not seemed to adapt well since their last match, showing that he still has major weaknesses when it comes to defending his feet.

It wouldn’t be the craziest thing in the world for Prochazka to score an upset knockout, but I predict Pereira will win a hard-fought first round.

prediction: Pereira from afar

What time and where to watch Alex Pereira vs. Jiri Prochazka

Pereira and Prochazka are scheduled to enter the Octagon at approximately 12:15 a.m. ET (approximately 9:15 p.m. local time in Las Vegas). The bout will be streamed on ESPN+ pay-per-view.