With less than a month left in the NBA regular season, and it's time for teams to get better, there are only a handful of teams that are feeling extra confident about themselves. Between all the injuries (Minnesota, almost every affiliate in the East) and uncertainty (Dallas, Phoenix, Clippers, among others), it's okay to be a little confused about the current situation.
Now let's zoom out. Instead of trying to understand hot and cold streaks, which may be meaningless, here are five stats that I think are important for the stretch run.
Donovan Mitchell sets the pace
The Cleveland Cavaliers' transition frequency this season was 3.9% higher with Donovan Mitchell on the court than without him., according to Cleaning The Glass. That's a big number – LeBron James is the only player in the NBA to increase his team's transition frequency even more (at least 500 minutes).
Why is this relevant? The Cavs ranked 19th in transition frequency last season (14.3%) and 10th this season (15.4%), according to CTG. His tendency to walk the ball up the floor wasn't the only reason they lost to the New York Knicks in the first round of the playoffs, but it was a problem. And Mitchell was often the guy leading it.
Cleveland prioritized pace in training camp, and it paid off. According to CTG, only three teams are better in transition (in terms of points added per possession). One of the league's best pick-and-roll players, Mitchell is very comfortable playing in the half court, but deserves credit for pushing the ball more consistently.
It also helps that in addition to Mitchell and Darius Garland, a number of shooters are willing to take threes in transition, including Max Strus, Georges Niang, and especially Sam Merrill. In the playoffs, with two bigs on the floor, the Cavaliers' spacing will still be imperfect, but it will be harder for opponents to shut down their offense.
Pelicans are cornered
The corner three was not a strength for the New Orleans Pelicans in 2022-23. According to CTG, they ranked 26th in frequency (7.9% of shot attempts) and he ranked 22nd in accuracy (37.4%).
That has changed significantly this season. At corner, the Pelicans are 14th in frequency (9.7%) and 2nd in accuracy (42.6%).. (These numbers have gotten even better since the All-Star break: 10.9% frequency, 46.9% accuracy.)
Much of that is due to the growth of one player. Herb Jones' 45% mark on corner 3s isn't as insane as, say, Jrue Holiday's 63%, but Jones is attempting corner 3s at a much higher volume, and until recently he was a shooter. This is surprising for a player who was seen as lacking. .
But that's not the case just Jones. Jose Alvarado, Jordan Hawkins, CJ McCollum, Larry Nance Jr., Naji Marshall and Matt Ryan are shooting a combined 47% from the corners, with each individually shooting at least 42%. .
This is not an accident. Before the season started, coach Willie Green said New Orleans needed to improve its offense and brought in former Charlotte Hornets coach James Borrego to do that. The Pelicans have built an unconventional offense around their unparalleled franchise player, Zion Williamson. Still, much of their offensive improvement (10th this season, 20th last season) is due to simple things: spacing the floor, putting pressure on the rim, forcing help, corner shooters. find. According to pbpstats.com, Brandon Ingram ranks seventh in the league in total corner three assists, while Williamson ranks 14th.
The magic formula also includes FT
Yes, the number of fouls has decreased recently. But getting to the free-throw line remains a core part of the Orlando Magic's identity. The Magic had the league's best free throw percentage of .298 (or FTA/FGA) before the All-Star hiatus, but since then it has dropped to… .271.This effectively tied them with the Memphis Grizzlies for highest rating during that period.
In a sense, free throws bigger Things have been favorable for Orlando these days. Before the All-Star break, the Magic were giving up a ton of free throws in addition to generating a ton of them. His opponent free throw percentage was .277, which was the 26th highest in the league. But since the All-Star break, Orlando's opponent free throw percentage has been just .231, right in the middle of the pack.
Since the break, the Magic are 11-3, 10-2 when they make a better free throw percentage than their opponents, and 1-1 when they don't.
Paolo Banchero, Orlando's best player and best foul draw, only saw a slight drop in attempts. Before the All-Star season, he was shooting 40.5 percent from free throws and averaging 10 free throw attempts per 100 possessions. His post-All-Star free throw percentage was .387, averaging 8.8 per 100. (For comparison, Damian Lillard of the Milwaukee Bucks averaged the same 10 free throw attempts per 100 possessions before the All-Star), with a free throw percentage of .436. After being an All-Star, Lillard averaged 6.7 for 100 and had a .276 free throw percentage. )
Conventional wisdom holds that teams that rely heavily on getting to the free-throw line will struggle in the playoffs, where calls are hard to come by. These numbers don't guarantee that Orlando won't have such an experience, but they are encouraging. At least so far, the Magic's opponents have had a harder time adjusting to the new normal than they have.
New York all-defense candidate
After almost 85% of the regular season, New York Knicks center Isaiah Hartenstein still leads the league in estimated defensive plus-minus., according to dunksandthrees.com. I'm not saying Hartenstein is the single best defender in the NBA, but this isn't some kind of weird statistical fluke either.
Hartenstein was supposed to be the Knicks' backup center, but that changed when Mitchell Robinson suffered an ankle injury in December. In the first 10 games of the 2024 calendar year, the best period of Hartenstein's career, he averaged 8.7 points, 14.3 rebounds, and 3.0 points in 36.1 minutes while holding down the paint for a team that was suddenly dominant defensively. He had assists, 1.9 steals, and 2.0 blocks. After the OG Anunoby trade.
Since then, neither Hartenstein nor New York has reached that level. He was sidelined for some time with an Achilles tendon injury and said he wanted to play for the team upon his return, but “probably could have missed a few more weeks.'' Hartenstein played more than 38 minutes five times in January, but hasn't played more than 28 minutes in any game since the All-Star break. But he's been crushing it lately, recording 13 points, 10 rebounds, four assists, two steals and one block for Golden State. He had seven points, 14 rebounds, three assists, one steal, and four blocks against Sacramento, and was consistently effective in rim protection.
There are several reasons for this. With Robinson, who was playing better than before his injury, nearing a return, the Knicks could have 48 minutes of elite rim protection and rebounding in the playoffs. And when it comes time for award voters to cast their votes, Hartenstein deserves serious attention for All-Defense.
wenby effect
Victor Wembaneyama probably won't win the Defensive Player of the Year award – as he said, Minnesota Timberwolves center Rudy Gobert could win it one last time – but, He has a valid point. The easy rebuttal to “DPOY shouldn't come from a team that is currently 15-54 and 23rd in defensive rating” is, “It's not Wenby's fault.”
In Wenbanyama's last 30 games (i.e. since January 10th), the San Antonio Spurs have allowed 108.1 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor.This is slightly better than the Minnesota Timberwolves' best defense in the league (for both that period and season). During the same period, the Spurs allowed 118.8 out of 100 without Wenbanyama on the court, which ranks 28th in the league both during that period (Los Angeles Lakers) and on the season (Atlanta Hawks). slightly worse than his defense.
The Wenby effect is slightly less extreme during the season. He scored 111.1 points per 100 possessions when he was on the court and 120.1 points when he was off. And while these on/off numbers can be misleading, stoppers are often off the court when the opponent's best player is off the court, and they often miss the opponent's 3-point shot. often accounts for most of the difference, but these numbers match up with what you see when you look at San Antonio: Wenbang Yama is a huge deterrent, something that no one else can do Play defensively.
It's true that rim protectors generally don't have much of an impact on an opponent's 3-point shooting (aside from influencing the opposing team to try harder 3-point shots if they can't get to the basket). However, in this case I don't think it's random. Don't you think your opponent's shot percentage will be lower when Wenbanyama is on the court? His closeouts are not normal closeouts. He blocks 3s!
This doesn't mean Wembaneyama necessarily has to win DPOY against Gobert. Gobert's teams are holding him to 106.2 points per 100 possessions when he's on the court. But the rookie shouldn't have been dismissed because of the team's shortcomings, earning first-team All-Defense.
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