The 2024 NBA playoffs are quickly approaching, and we are getting a better idea of potential first-round matchups.
Every playoff team has at least one nightmare opponent for a number of reasons. This could stem from poor play during head-to-head meetings this season, tough individual matchups, previous playoff history or a number of different X-factors.
Our projected playoff teams will be provided by B/R’s recent bracket predictions, which are based on current record, remaining strength of schedule and a number of other areas.
These are the squads all 16 projected postseason teams should want to avoid.
Nightmare Matchup: Denver Nuggets
Season Record Against: 0-2
Net Rating Against: minus-3.7
At 54-14 overall and running away in the East with a 10-game lead over the second-place Milwaukee Bucks, there’s really no one to fear in the conference for the Celtics.
Even the Miami Heat, which knocked Boston out in the East finals last year, are 0-3 against the Celtics this season.
If Boston does advance to the NBA Finals, the Nuggets are the one team they should not want to see. The champions have handed the Celtics two of their 14 total losses this season and are the only team to go undefeated against them (minimum two games).
Jayson Tatum averaged just 18.5 points on 37.8 percent shooting overall and 23.1 percent from three while Jaylen Brown only connected on 18.8 percent of his triples in the two meetings as well.
With no real challenge in the East, the Celtics should hope anyone besides Denver comes out of the West.
Nightmare Matchup: Indiana Pacers
Season Record Against: 1-4
Net Rating Against: minus-3.6
While the Pacers won’t strike fear into the hearts of a lot of teams, this is one group the Bucks will probably want to avoid in the first round.
Even with a bonus game thanks to the In-Season Tournament, Milwaukee still mustered just a single win against the Pacers in five meetings. Indiana torched the Bucks for an average of 129.5 points per game in the four victories, and Milwaukee’s defense isn’t getting any better (113.4 rating after the All-Star break, 20th overall).
Tyrese Haliburton has lit up the Bucks overall, averaging 27.0 points, 5.8 rebounds, 11.0 assists (against just 1.4 turnovers) and 1.2 blocks in the five games.
The Boston Celtics may present the greatest collection of star power for the Bucks to potentially face, although the Pacers have given Milwaukee the toughest games thus far this season.
Nightmare Matchup: Boston Celtics
Season Record Against: 0-4
Net Rating Against: minus-10.7
The Knicks match up well against a lot of potential opponents in the East, but they suffered a clean sweep at the hands of the Celtics this season.
As amazing as Jalen Brunson is, even he’s been bothered by the combination of Derrick White and Jrue Holiday, the best defensive backcourt in the NBA.
The All-Star guard shot just 42.9 percent overall in his four games against the Celtics, with teammates Donte DiVincenzo (28.6 percent) and Julius Randle (33.9 percent in three contests) faring even worse.
Having a healthy OG Anunoby would do wonders defensively against Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, but even he shot just 38.1 percent against Boston in two games while still with the Toronto Raptors.
The good news? If the Knicks can climb into the top three seeds, they won’t face the Celtics until the East finals. By then, the season can already be considered a success.
Nightmare Matchup: Miami Heat
Season Record Against: 1-3
Net Rating Against: minus-5.9
The young Magic could climb into a top-four seed in the East before the season ends, securing homecourt advantage in the first round.
However, it would be a shame if they had to face, oh, let’s say a veteran-heavy, playoff-soaked roster that defends at a high level and actually plays better on the road.
Miami is 20-16 away from home and wouldn’t have to travel far to face its in-state rivals. Orlando is 24th overall in three-point shooting this season while the Heat are holding opponents to 34.3 percent from deep following the All-Star break (No. 5 in the NBA) and are sixth overall defensively.
Orlando’s core getting its first playoff taste against Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, Erik Spoelstra and others seems like cruel and unusual punishment.
Nightmare Matchup: New York Knicks
Season Record Against: 1-2
Net Rating Against: minus-7.4
What’s worse than losing in the playoffs to the team that’s been rumored to sign away your franchise superstar?
Doing it again.
The Cavs got absolutely punked by the Knicks last postseason, as New York was the more physical and aggressive team in four of the short five games.
A 1-2 record against the Knicks this year hasn’t inspired any confidence that things will be different, especially since New York lost Jalen Brunson in the first minute of their last meeting and still came away victorious.
Josh Hart hitting a tough three-pointer in the corner before playfully taking a swipe at Donovan Mitchell’s chain on the sideline (with no pushback from any Cavs player) tells you how much this franchise is in control of this budding rivalry right now.
If Cleveland gets knocked out by the Boston Celtics or Milwaukee Bucks, it can still be deemed a successful season.
If the Knicks are the culprits, it’s going to be a long, painful offseason for the Cavaliers once again.
Nightmare Matchup: Boston Celtics
Season Record Against: 2-3
Net Rating Against: minus-11.9
While the Pacers have primarily owned the Milwaukee Bucks this season, it’s been a different story against the other top team in the East.
The Celtics whooped the Pacers by 51 points in November and still haven’t lost to Indiana while at full strength. In the Pacers’ pair of wins, Boston was missing either Jayson Tatum or Kristaps Porziņģis.
Indiana’s offense and pace of play has carried the team for most of the season, but with the Celtics’ ranking second defensively (110.2 rating) and given Tyrese Haliburton’s recent shooting struggles vs. Boston’s premier defensive backcourt, this is a bad matchup for the Pacers all around.
With the Celtics locked in as the No. 1 seed in the East, it’s imperative that the Pacers don’t fall to No. 8.
Nightmare Matchup: Milwaukee Bucks
Season Record Against: 0-3
Net Rating Against: minus-10.7
The 76ers are in real danger of facing either the Bucks or Boston Celtics as they sit just a half game above the play-in tournament. Staying at No. 6 and avoiding both until the second round would be the ideal situation while Joel Embiid works his way back to the court.
Just one of these three meetings featured a healthy Embiid this season, although the Bucks still edged out a close win. The MVP center struggled mightily, with seven turnovers and five fouls while shooting just 9-of-21 overall from the field for his 24 points.
A big, physical frontcourt of Giannis Antetokounmpo and Brook Lopez is perhaps the most formidable that the seven-time All-Star can face.
Tyrese Maxey is going to have his work cut out trying to contain Damian Lillard for stretches, especially if De’Anthony Melton continues to have back issues.
Embiid can dominate a lot of teams, but this isn’t one.
Nightmare Matchup: New York Knicks
Season Record Against: 0-2
Net Rating Against: minus-9.9
Miami can bully a lot of postseason teams, especially if it draws a young Orlando Magic squad or a Cleveland Cavaliers group till searching for its first postseason series win together.
These Knicks cannot be bullied, though.
New York gave Miami a tough six-game, second-round series a year ago and has a far better roster this time around with the additions of OG Anunoby, Bojan Bogdanović, Alec Burks and others. Mitchell Robinson recently returned to practice, and Julius Randle is still expected back at some point this season.
Anunoby and Josh Hart are two physical defensive options to throw on Jimmy Butler, and New York has the size up front to bother Bam Adebayo.
With the Knicks seeking revenge for last postseason, this would be a tough series for Miami.
Nightmare Matchup: Sacramento Kings
Season Record Against: 1-3
Net Rating Against: minus-4.4
The defending champs could well face the Kings in the opening round, as Sacramento continues to hover around the final few playoff spots in the West.
Three losses in four games against the Kings should be concerning, especially since this group soaked up some quality playoff experience in its seven-game series against the Golden State Warriors last year.
Domantas Sabonis isn’t an all-world defender, but he is a tough, physical option to throw on Nikola Jokić. His 13.7 rebounds per game lead the Serb and the NBA as well. De’Aaron Fox is capable of outdueling Jamal Murray, and players such as Keegan Murray, Harrison Barnes and Malik Monk can all get hot from deep.
The Kings won’t be satisfied with just making the playoffs and likely view themselves as being close to the Nuggets’ level. This would be a terrific series overall.
Nightmare Matchup: Dallas Mavericks
Season Record Against: 2-1*
Net Rating Against: minus-7.1
Ignore the 2-1 record against the Mavs this season; the Thunder should still fear a potential series against Dallas.
In OKC’s two victories the Mavericks were either missing Luka Dončić or Kyrie Irving. In the one contest when both were healthy, Dallas won by a whopping 35 points.
Few teams have an answer for Dončić, although the All-Star guard has been especially good against the Thunder. In his pair of games Dončić is averaging 34.0 points, 11.5 rebounds, 13.5 assists (his most against any team) and is shooting 55.6 percent overall and 42.9 percent from three.
The Mavs frontcourt additions of Daniel Gafford and P.J. Washington will only make this potential series more challenging.
Nightmare Matchup: Phoenix Suns
Season Record Against: 0-1
Net Rating Against: minus-21.1
Minnesota should be able to hang with some of the better offenses in the postseason, although the Suns’ firepower will certainly test the Wolves’ tenacious defense.
Phoenix has owned this franchise of late, winning eight of the past nine meetings going back to the 2020-21 season. In their one game so far this year, the Suns put up 133 in an 18-point victory, with Kevin Durant and Devin Booker going for 31 apiece. Bradley Beal didn’t even suit up while the Wolves had a healthy Karl-Anthony Towns.
With Towns’ return date uncertain, it’s going to be too much to ask of Anthony Edwards to carry the offensive load against this Big 3, especially since he shot just 4-of-16 overall (13 points) against Phoenix this year.
Nightmare Matchup: Denver Nuggets
Season Record Against: 1-2
Net Rating Against: minus-9.5
Plenty of teams will have problems matching up with the Nuggets, although the Pelicans are especially built to struggle.
Nikola Jokić can manipulate a defense from anywhere on the court with his passing and shooting and is enough of a threat from the perimeter that Jonas Valančiūnas will have to meet him out there. Valančiūnas isn’t a good defender in space, leaving plenty of cutting options for Aaron Gordon and others with an open paint.
Jokić had a field day playing against New Orleans this season, averaging 29.3 points, 13.3 rebounds and 14.7 assists while shooting 59.0 percent overall in the three games.
Gordon is strong enough to bother Zion Williamson and the Nuggets’ experience will be a big advantage over a Pelicans team that hasn’t made it past the first round of the playoffs (in just one appearance) over the past seven years.
Nightmare Matchup: Minnesota Timberwolves
Season Record Against: 1-3
Net Rating Against: minus-11.3
The Clippers have stumbled as of late and may have to face the Wolves in the first round as a result. Following a 1-3 record against them this season, this would be a worse-case scenario for Los Angeles.
While wing heavy, the Clippers can be pushed around inside, something these Timberwolves were built to do. Rudy Gobert put up 13.0 points, 14.0 rebounds and 3.3 blocks in four games against Los Angeles and Karl-Anthony Towns’ size (assuming he returns from a knee injury) will be a tough cover for Kawhi Leonard.
Anthony Edwards has fared well against this Clippers team as well, averaging 30.0 points, 7.3 rebounds and 5.0 assists while shooting 50.6 percent overall.
Minnesota has enough veterans (Mike Conley Jr., Gobert) and size (Gobert, Towns, Naz Reid) to make this a rough few games for L.A.
Nightmare Matchup: Denver Nuggets
Season Record Against: 1-2
Net Rating Against: minus-13.3
If not for Kyrie Irving’s left-handed, 20-foot, game-winning hook shot to beat Denver at the buzzer, the Nuggets would be a perfect 3-0 against Dallas this season.
Kudos to Irving for making the shot, although we’re no more confident about the Mavs’ chances in a playoff series against the defending champs.
Asking rookie center Dereck Lively II to guard a two-time MVP in Nikola Jokić for an entire series seems wrong, as we’ve seen the Nuggets big man terrorize premier veteran defenders like Anthony Davis and Rudy Gobert.
Luka Dončić could certainly make this a series, although Denver’s playoff experience and the Jokić-Lively matchup would be too much to overcome.
Nightmare Matchup: Los Angeles Clippers
Season Record Against: 0-2
Net Rating Against: minus-18.1
Although the Suns came away victorious over the Clippers in the playoffs last season, this squad in L.A. is far more dangerous with a healthy Kawhi Leonard, Paul George and now James Harden added into the mix. The Clippers were up 1-0 in the series with Leonard looking like the best player on the floor (34.5 points, 6.5 rebounds, 6.0 assists, 2.0 steals, 60.0 percent from three) before a knee injury sidelined him after two games.
Phoenix should be worried about matchups here, as Leonard vs. Kevin Durant and George vs. Booker presents some difficult defense to go up against. The Suns don’t have a lot of individual high-level defenders to slow down a lot of the Clippers’ offensive studs, either.
While the veteran-heavy Suns can prey on some of the more inexperienced teams in the West, the Clippers are also fueled by playoff regulars and former champions who will do their best to make sure revenge is had from a year ago.
Nightmare Matchup: New Orleans Pelicans
Season Record Against: 0-4
Net Rating Against: minus-20.7
Of any potential nightmare matchup, this was the most one-sided battle of all.
The Kings simply could not figure out the Pelicans this season, as New Orleans put up a hefty 126.5 points per game in their four meetings.
The Pelicans’ Big 3 of Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram and CJ McCollum averaged a combined 68.6 points on 59.6 percent shooting overall. With no true rim protector on Sacramento’s roster, the Pelicans were feasting overall.
This is what makes the playoffs so fascinating. The Kings went 0-4 against the Pelicans, who went 1-2 against the Denver Nuggets, who went 1-3 against Sacramento.
The Kings may actually not want to climb much higher in the standings, preferring to face a team like Denver who they’ve had success against instead of a lower seed like New Orleans, who they couldn’t beat at all this season.
