Conventional wisdom in NBA postseason basketball is that the actual title contenders are set and often few. Parity is an aspiration. For better or worse, a few big dogs rule, and this idea and much of the game's history holds true.
But if you believe in this year and accept the idea that the best two teams in the game can actually lose in the playoffs, a world of possibilities opens up. For years, league officials have sought a field full of aspiring champions. Perhaps we are getting closer to that reality.
Or maybe you're already there. After a handful of teams won every title this century (including Stephen Curry and LeBron James winning seven of nine), from the Raptors to the Bucks to the Nuggets, things like diversity. has crept in. Even Steph and LeBron's last two wins felt more like swan songs than reminders of dominance.
So, in the spirit of the idea that more teams may have a chance to win it all than has been true over the past few decades, we have put together a very optimistic list of 15 teams with a chance to win it all. Here is the list. This list is full of hierarchies, possibilities, and drawbacks. That could hold them back.
Tier 1: Large dog
Especially in the playoffs, two teams are clearly the best teams in the game. boston celtics and denver nuggets.
There are no surprises here, and there's not much to say. For the rest of this list to matter, we'd have to see one or both of the Celtics and Nuggets get beaten by a lesser opponent.
Both are in the top 10 in offensive and defensive rating, historically indicators of championship teams. But again, that's easier said than done, and there are plenty of talented teams in the West that could create a mine-laden route to Denver.
And for the Celtics, who surprisingly rank first in offensive rating and second in defensive rating, there are real questions about Jayson Tatum in the playoffs. Yes, the additions of Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis were an impressive feat by the front office. But it's also true that Tatum has been one of the game's worst clutch shooters over the past five seasons, and we know the champions will need a star to get there.
Like Denver in the West, they are favorites to win in the East. However, the rest of the game is full of fascinating challengers.
Level 2: Talent and Experience
There are two teams here with believable regular seasons, but the lack of experience that some of the NBA's oldest heads say is the fatal flaw so far. I happen to agree with this logic, but that's not necessarily the case.
of oklahoma city thunder and minnesota timberwolves He's spent the season competing with Denver for the top spot in the Western Conference, flashing many times against great teams and racking up the stats and season that could lead to a championship.
The Thunder are particularly appealing as a reliable upstart force. They have tremendous ability on both sides of the ball, deep and wild athleticism, and boast star power in likely MVP and Rookie of the Year runner-up Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. and Chet Holmgren, respectively.
On paper, they are a championship-level team and check a lot of the boxes necessary to compete. But experience is important, and young teams with no playoff experience almost always need to lose to learn. SGA has never made it past the first round, only played once against OKC in the postseason, and is surrounded by players with little playoff experience.
There's a similar feel to Minnesota, and even though Minnesota has a little more experience, their best player is still Anthony Edwards. Anthony Edwards is a 22-year-old rising star who has never been eliminated in the first round. He will be a concern given the injury to Karl-Anthony Towns and an often lackluster offense.
But every team plays great defense. Each has star players who could be future top-five players. And both teams are likely to make people like me take my word for it when I say young people can't win in the NBA playoffs.
Tier 3: Doc Rivers Problem
Good news: milwaukee bucks He's incredibly talented. Khris Middleton is back. They have won 10 of their last 12 games, including 3 of 4 on West Coast's tricky swing. And they have one of the best players on the planet, a proven champion and former MVP in Giannis Antetokounmpo who can lead the team. With Damian Lillard getting better and other teams in the Eastern Conference battling injuries and uncertainty, Milwaukee couldn't be in a better position.
The bad news, at least for many in the NBA, is their coach.
I've written a lot about this, but Why I didn't like being hired in Milwaukee why his Philadelphia's departure was good news. For the Sixers, until that moment when Rivers watched the 2020 Clippers team in classic Rivers fashion. Blowing a 3-1 series lead in the second round of the playoffs that year.
However, past performance does not dictate future results. And if Doc turns out to be the right guy after all, the Bucks could definitely win it all.
Tier 4: There are real question marks, but there are opportunities.
of new york knicks.of cleveland cavaliers.of Los Angeles Clippers.of new orleans pelicans.
Each of these four teams has shown signs of being good enough. And each has significant drawbacks as we near the business end of this NBA season.
Let's start with the team I want to believe in the most, the Knicks. The team is 15-2 when OG Anunoby is playing, and the team's defensive rating has increased significantly since his arrival. Yes, he and Julius Randle remain injured and their respective return dates are unclear. But this team, even without them, was fun to watch behind star Jalen Brunson. And if he can get his co-star back, the Knicks have enough to move forward in a big way.
The Cavs also have injury issues — in this case Donovan Mitchell. But this is their best defense and depth, and if Mitchell returns for the playoffs and stays healthy, he'll be a player ready to make a run in the postseason. Like the Timberwolves, they're great on D but not great on offense, but there were signs of a great team in Cleveland this season, and that was the last time they were there until the playoffs.
Then there are the Clippers and Pelicans, both dangerous and unbelievable despite their obvious talent. For the Clippers, who have lost their way lately, there's still no doubt that Kawhi Leonard's skill and star power can do something special, especially if he can stay healthy. That's probably why they have the third-best chance of winning it all behind Boston and Denver.
And the Pelicans were a really great team. Both offensive power and defensive power are in the top 10. Zion Williamson is healthy and in great shape.and have won seven of the past eight since Tuesday night.
Zion and the Pelicans have felt like fool's gold in recent years, but New Orleans could be close to a cash cow for a team that has always believed it could be a championship contender if only its superstar could stay on the floor. It is believed that there is no.
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Tier 5: Incredibly Dangerous Underachievers
yes of course, miami heat, golden state warriors, Los Angeles Lakers, phoenix suns and dallas mavericks This season is flawed and definitely disappointing. Sure, if he actually plays inbound, one or two losses could end things before the actual playoffs even begin.
And yes, some of these teams like Miami, Phoenix, and Dallas could also be playing their way out of the NBA's version of Russian roulette.
But some (some would argue all) of these teams could be deep in the playoffs if things go well. There are a lot of “ifs” in a scenario like this, but there's no doubt that other teams, especially Golden State, don't want to play those teams in the playoffs.
I still think the Warriors would be in a very good position if they could make the playoffs opposite the Nuggets. They still have Stephen Curry. The Warriors have had the ninth-best defensive rating in the league since Draymond Green returned to the starting lineup in January following his suspension. This is a significant improvement for a defense that was downright bad without Draymond Green. Klay Thompson has been mostly outstanding since moving to the bench. And this team is still the team that won it all two years before him.
They are the best of the in-form teams in the play-ins that considered themselves top-level contenders at the beginning of the year, but they are not the only team. Any team with a healthy LeBron and Anthony Davis can do damage (see last year). I don't support the Mavericks, but many people point to what Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving bring in terms of pure scoring ability. I believe in the Heat, even if many others don't. Because Heatway is the real deal (again, see last year).
Las Vegas, the eye test, and the talent of each team point to the same conclusion. These potential play-in teams are much more dangerous than their place in the standings.
Tier 6: When MVP returns…
of philadelphia 76ers If Joel Embiid returns in time for the playoffs and is healthy enough to perform like he did earlier this season, he will be a title contender.that may be the biggest if Now in the NBA, we can't rule out the possibility that the Sixers are still big players.
I want to believe but I don't
Magic is doing great. The Pacers cooled down with Tyrese Haliburton. The Sacramento Kings are very interesting and exciting, but even optimistically he needs a team that plays some level of defense to be a potential NBA contender. Even the Bulls are being brave these days.
But no, they are not on this list.
Still, if you look properly at the other teams listed above, it looks like almost half of the NBA could be true playoff threats. And that, no matter what happens, makes the game much more appealing than it has been in years past.
