Best NFL free agency fits for fantasy football

Fewer rumor mills churn with the fervency than those engaged in offseason NFL chatter. From debating the necessity of adding extra regular-season games to parsing social media posts to deciphering even the most obtuse coachspeak, football fans love to sip tea and play telephone. The hottest brews and the most crackling connections, though, are always delivered as winter turns to spring.

Between welcoming a new class of fantasy stars to the (re)shuffling of the virtual game’s most relied upon standouts, an impulse to connect dots seems impossible to resist. Less passionate folks might call it conjecture. The most die-hard among us, however, consider it preparation. As my old friend Kyle Soppe (and West Coast rapper Suga Free) would say, “Stay ready so you don’t have to get ready.” Using that mantra as inspo, let’s go through this year’s list of big free agent names and discuss their most fantastic fantasy landing spots.

Quarterbacks

Russell Wilson, Las Vegas Raiders? Let’s Ride, indeed. Registering an 11-19 record during his career as a Bronco, Wilson fell far short of the organization’s mile high expectations. From a fantasy point of view, however, his numbers were more average than horrible this past season. Wilson recorded 17.1 fantasy points per game and closed out his second campaign in Denver as fantasy QB14 overall. For context, Justin Fields averaged 17.7 and Patrick Mahomes managed 17.5 fantasy points per game.

Wilson may never cook. But he’s also not cooked. The Raiders need a grown-up quarterback in the building. And Antonio Pierce appears to have the rizz necessary to revitalize a humbled DangeRuss. Surrounded by veteran pass-catching talent, Wilson could retain top 15 fantasy value in Vegas. And I’m sure Ciara wouldn’t mind securing a residency in the desert.

Update (Monday, March 11): Steel City isn’t exactly Sin City, but a job is a job. The Arthur Smith of the situation doesn’t lend itself to much fantasy fun, though Wilson’s legs (which saw a bounce back in 2023) might be back in play. It won’t be enough to make Wilson a top-20 FF producer at the position, but his presence under center figures to be an upgrade over Kenny Pickett. That’s good news for Diontae Johnson and George Pickens.

Justin Fields, Pittsburgh Steelers? The presumptive thought is that Fields will be dealt so that the Bears can draft Caleb Williams with the first pick. That seems bananas. Not only because the locker room has loudly rallied around Fields, but because the organization has proved incapable of creating an environment conducive to the development of a rookie quarterback. Chicago passing on Marvin Harrison Jr. to waste the talents of another rookie signal-caller is the most Bears thing ever (and the only reason why I think it will happen).

Fields following fellow Windy City castoff Mitch Trubisky to Pittsburgh feels like a perfectly poetic plot twist. With Kenny Pickett struggling (and the aforementioned Trubisky released and rejoining the Bills), the Steelers are in the market for a new franchise quarterback. The addition of Arthur Smith — despite the “one more chance” blather about Pickett — suggests a refresh and realignment for the offense. For obvious reasons, Smith doesn’t curry much favor in fantasy circles, but we know the man loves to run the ball. That’s something Fields does really well (when it’s not being coached out of him), as he averaged 5.3 yards per carry (50.5 rushing yards per game, QB2) last season. A move to Steel City would keep Fields inside the top 12 fantasy producers at the position in 2024.

Kirk Cousins, Atlanta Falcons? Cousins running it back in Minnesota has long appeared the most obvious outcome regarding the 35-year-old’s landing spot. Recently, though, whispers about a move to Atlanta have surfaced. We know Cousins can serve in a Sean McVay-style offense. He led the position in passing scores over the first two months of the season, posting 18 touchdowns from Weeks 1 through 8 (and with Justin Jefferson sidelined for three of those outings). That number seems duplicable given the Falcons’ stable of talented (and, as yet, unlocked) pass-catchers and with offensive coordinator Zac Robinson calling plays. Assuming rehab of his right Achilles remains on schedule, Cousins could surface as fantasy’s biggest value pick at the position come fall.

Update: Forget gold chains, Cousins is stacking gold bars. The 36-year-old is heading to the ATL on a deal that will, reportedly, earn him $100 million in guaranteed money. While the move won’t be quite as rich for fantasy managers, those who’ve been hanging on to Drake London and Kyle Pitts in dynasty should feel considerable relief. Cousins is an accurate passer who has managed a YPA of at least 7.5 in four of his last five campaigns. His lack of rushing output depresses his overall value, but given his new stable of pass-catchers and the Falcons offensive line, Cousins should deliver high-end QB2 numbers for fantasy purposes in 2024.

Running backs

Saquon Barkley, Houston Texans? Barkley is set to become a free agent after six seasons in New York. The 27-year-old motored his way to 1,489 total touches over that time, serving as the Giants offensive engine for the bulk of his career. That volume buoyed Barkley’s fantasy stock, as he managed nearly 16 fantasy points per game (RB13) despite averaging 3.9 yards per carry in 2023. While the former second overall pick may be entering the twilight of his career, a change could be the catalyst for a resurgence … particularly on an offense as explosive as the Texans’. With Devin Singletary’s exit opening (at least) 40 targets and Dameon Pierce’s legs lacking churn, Barkley would serve as the primary ball carrier on an ascending squad. That’s a recipe for top 10 fantasy running back potential next season.

Update: Saquon’s move to Philly made much of Big Blue understandably salty. Fantasy purists, however, can appreciate how the change of scenery further cements the RB’s FF stardom. One of the league’s most versatile and dynamic talents, Barkley should continue to rip off long runs (he was the RB8 in breakaway runs in 2023) and evade tackles while working behind a much better offensive line. With D’Andre Swift now in Chicago, Barkley’s work in the passing game should additionally remain stable as he’s likely to (once again) average around three catches per contest. Any potential hit to Barkley’s overall volume figures to be outweighed by an increase in efficiency given the explosiveness of the Eagles offense. Consider the 27-year-old an RB1 for fantasy purposes in 2024.

Josh Jacobs, Baltimore Ravens? Jacobs, like Barkley, did not receive the franchise tag from his team and will be a free agent. The former Alabama standout has operated in the backfield with dogged determination, recording over 660 touches over his past pair of seasons. On the heels of a career campaign (in which Jacobs registered 340 carries as well as 53 receptions), Jacobs’ efficiency took a hit last season, as he averaged 4.1 yards per touch (RB50).

Still, at only 26 years old, Jacobs might still find fantasy relevance on a team that he doesn’t have to carry. The Ravens fit that bill. With Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins set to depart, Jacobs could play an every down role in Baltimore. Sharing the backfield with Lamar Jackson could certainly open lanes and help the veteran running back regain some of his trademark juice. A move to Charm City would keep Jacobs on the RB1 radar in 2024.

Update: It’s not Baltimore, but Jacobs is still joining an offense that he won’t have to carry. Jacobs agreed to terms with the Packers and – in a surprising move – the team subsequently released Aaron Jones. With AJ Dillon set to also test free agency, Jacobs figures to work as Green Bay’s primary ball carrier. The 26-year-old recorded a career-low 3.5 YPC in 2023. That number should climb given the Packers increasingly explosive and efficient offense. Jacobs remains a top-15 fantasy producer at the position heading into the fall.

Derrick Henry, Dallas Cowboys? Henry has long been a source of anxiety for fantasy managers, thriving as an anomaly relative to the rest of the position. The 30-year-old back led all running backs in carries for the second consecutive season, recording 280 totes over 2023. His 4.2 yards per carry translated into 1,167 rushing yards (RB2), which allowed him to finish as the RB8 overall last year. It’s hard to imagine he’ll handle the same type of volume (and subsequently produce at the same level) outside of Tennessee. But if there were a team that might help the King to further polish his crown, it’s the Cowboys. The anointing of Tony Pollard didn’t go as planned, and Dallas appears ready to let the longtime backup walk in free agency. That opens up a Texas-sized spot in the backfield. Given Henry’s stature and skill set (not to mention his understandable desire to play for a Super Bowl contender), a move south makes plenty of sense (and offers substantial fantasy appeal).

Update: A player of Henry’s stature doesn’t normally fly, but that’s exactly what the former Titan figures to do as part of the Ravens flock. A perennial top-10 producer (who has cleared at least 12 fantasy points per game every year since 2019), Henry has continued to evade tackles (59 in 2023, RB9) and rip off breakaway runs (16 in 2023, RB2). At 30-years-old and with over 2,000 carries to his name, durability is an obvious concern. Still, Todd Monken’s run-aggressive offense and the Ravens solid o-line should both work in the vet’s favor. Assuming he stays healthy, Henry is in line for double-digit scores and top-12 FF RB consideration in Baltimore.

Austin Ekeler, Philadelphia Eagles? There was always some doubt that Ekeler would flourish as well in Kellen Moore’s offense as he did in Joe Lombardi’s. He didn’t. Obviously, the high-ankle sprain he suffered early in the season didn’t help, either. Between dwindling use in the passing game (Ek’s targets dipped by more than two per game between 2022 and 2023), reduced efficiency and a staggeringly low number of red zone touches (nearly half as many as he recorded in 2022), Ekeler struggled to post low-end RB2 fantasy numbers.

Under another new regime, Austin appears destined to leave SoCal for chillier climes. I’d personally love to see him land in Philly. I understand that Moore is the Eagles’ new offensive coordinator, but I’m also not expecting 2022 production from Ek this go-around. He is, however, more than capable of taking over the D’Andre Swift role in Philadelphia’s backfield. And with Jason Kelce retiring, it wouldn’t surprise me to see fewer “brotherly shoves” next season, allowing for Austin to reestablish his nose for the end zone in 2024. Ekeler has the demeanor, juice and skill set to capably handle the ball 15 to 18 times per game. Given the operational success of the offense, that kind of volume would make Ekeler a regular top 20 fantasy contributor at the position.

Update: It’s not the NFC East squad I had hoped my old co-host would join, but I’m still optimistic Austin can flirt with low-end RB2 fantasy numbers while reuniting with Anthony Lynn in Washington. Ek figures to work as a compliment to Brian Robinson Jr., who should do most of the dirty work on early downs and at the goal line. That’s not great for Austin’s overall volume, but his pass-catching prowess still figures to be on full display. Noting that Washington is likely to be chasing points and will feature a rookie QB in need of a check down option, Austin appears in line for another 50+ reception season.

Wide receivers

Calvin Ridley, New York Jets? With Mike Evans signing a multiyear deal to stay in Tampa and Tee Higgins as well as Michael Pittman Jr. receiving franchise tags, Ridley headlines a less-than-flashy list of free agent receivers. The 29-year-old put together a streaky effort in Jacksonville, recording four games of over 100 receiving yards and nine outings of 40 or fewer receiving yards. It seems likely that the Jaguars will attempt to re-sign Ridley, but the market (not to mention Ridley’s contract stipulations) isn’t working in the team’s financial favor.

As a result, a bevy of teams figure to be interested in acquiring the 29-year-old’s talents. While the Chiefs and the Bills are fantasy favorites, the Jets seem like a solid landing spot for the former Falcon. Working as a compliment to Garrett Wilson and catching passes from Aaron Rodgers would offer Ridley another shot at fantasy stardom. (Though, ARod won’t be as forgiving as TLaw was about the drops. Still, the memes figure to be absolutely delicious.)

Marquise Brown, Carolina Panthers or Tennessee Titans? Brown’s second campaign with the Cardinals closed on a sour note, as he struggled through a heel issue down the stretch. Arizona’s instability under center certainly didn’t help the 26-year-old’s production ahead of the injury. Ending the season on IR and coming off of a down statistical effort is, obviously, not a good look heading into free agency. Still, the options for wide receiver-needy teams are far from flush, which should work in Hollywood’s favor.

It’s unlikely the former Raven will land on a contending squad, but the Panthers could use a field stretcher to help Bryce Young’s maturation process. Additionally, the Titans might consider orchestrating a reunion between Brown and DeAndre Hopkins in an effort to further unlock Will Levis’ potential. Either way, Brown figures to languish in the WR3/WR4 range for fantasy purposes next fall.

Mike Williams, Cleveland Browns? The Chargers are going through a rebrand … and Williams does not appear to be part of the team’s next-gen look. With a history of back issues, coming off of a torn ACL and entering his age-30 season, the vet is giving red-flag energy for fantasy purposes. Yet, a solid landing spot could create interesting value for bargain-minded managers. The Browns need a big body on the outside to compliment Amari Cooper. Plus, a reunion with former college teammate Deshaun Watson should aid in Williams’ offensive acclimation. He’s unlikely to deliver better than top-40 WR FF numbers over the course of the coming year, but Williams is certainly capable of a smattering of multi-TD weeks were he to spend 2024 in Cleveland.

Tyler Lockett, New England Patriots? Due to salary cap issues, Lockett is a strong cut candidate for the Seahawks. After clearing 1,000 receiving yards for four consecutive campaigns, the 31-year-old wide receiver managed a 79-894-5 stat line in 2023. A massive rebound seems unlikely even if Lockett were to remain in Seattle, given the team’s first-round investment in Jaxon Smith-Njigba. While a return to Kansas City would make for a great story and provide the Chiefs with a much-needed veteran presence, it feels like a reach.

Instead, let’s entertain the possibility of Lockett landing in New England. In the throes of a youth movement, the Patriots will be thirsty for an experienced (but not yet washed) talent in the locker room and on the field. A seasoned and versatile pass-catcher such as Lockett checks all of the boxes. Lockett could emerge as the team’s No. 1 wide receiver, working as Drake Maye’s (or Jayden Daniels’) most relied upon target. His efficiency figures to wane, but the volume could keep Lockett among the top-40 PPR producers at the position.

Update: After moving some money around, Lockett is set to stay in Seattle for two more years. The vet is coming off a down effort in which his efficiency waned. He could, however, experience a rebound in new OC Ryan Grubb’s pass-friendly scheme. Still, the ascent of Jaxon Smith-Njigba figures to cap Lockett’s opportunities. It’s that second part that could depress his draft stock (we love shiny new things in fantasy), potentially creating a fantastic value-based opportunity for managers seeking a solid WR3/flex option in the middle(ish) rounds.

Tight end

Noah Fant, Cincinnati Bengals? With Dalton Schultz staying in Houston and Jonnu Smith agreeing to a deal with Miami, Fant tops this year’s crop of tight end free agents. The 26-year-old was a red zone star at Iowa but has failed to ROI since joining the pros. But a late career glow-up could be in the cards for Fant were he to land with the right team.

The Bengals feel like a fire spot for the former first-round pick. Cincy has been without an elite option at the position since Tyler Eifert departed after 2019 (though some might argue injuries derailed Eifert’s productivity well before then). A workout metrics maven, Fant’s talent remains evident. His size and skill set could shine as a third option in the Bengals’ pass-friendly scheme, potentially making Fant one of this summer’s hottest post-hype sleepers.

Update: Staying in Seattle isn’t as good as landing in Cincinnati would have been, but I like the move for Fant. With Will Dissly joining the Chargers and Colby Parkinson added to the Rams, Fant (who led the trio of TEs in snaps last year) figures to see a healthy boost in opportunities. It’s additionally heartening to discover that Seattle’s new coaching staff opted to keep the 26-year-old in town, hopefully seeking to unlock his as-yet-untapped but all-too-undeniable potential. Coming off a career-low campaign (32-414-0) Fant presents with TE2 upside heading into 2024.

Follow Liz on social @LizLoza_FF.