While the Texans had success last year, it was the running game that they struggled with time and time again. They were lagging on nearly every rushing metric. Second-level stats such as expected points added per rush, yards to contact per rush, and negative rush rate also rank among the bottom 10 in the league, with running backs completing 23.8 percent of their time inside the 5-yard line. He scored seven total touchdowns, including a low. (5 points in 21 attempts).
Joe Mixon is entering his 28th season and is having a very good year with the Bengals — totaling 1,410 yards on 309 touches (52 catches). He was in the top 12 among running backs in all of the aforementioned stats the Texans struggled with, including 33.3% completion rate inside the 5-yard line (seven points on 21 attempts). Mixon has a top-five success rate of 37.7% over the past three years.
His experienced, versatile and (to some extent) explosive skill set is what the Texans need to strengthen their run game and make it a strength in 2024. That's why they traded him when he was available. Cincinnati signs Zack Moss at the start of free agency.
Ask any fantasy manager who was on Mixon's roster last year and they'll tell you how much of an ups and downs he was. A slow start (11.5 PPR points per game in the first six games) gave way to a fierce finish (18.0 PPR points per game in the last 11 games). Keep in mind that many of the last 11 games have been without Joe Burrow under center, so he's grown even with a lesser quarterback…it's not like those games are going to happen in Houston.
It's not like Mixon suddenly became a better player after the bye. His rushing average improved from 3.8 yards per carry to 4.1 yards per carry, and his explosive play rate (carries of 12 yards or more) stabilized from an abysmal 6.3% to 8.7%. He caught 3.3 passes per game after the bye, compared to 2.7 per game before the bye. Everything else about him remained the same except for his one thing: touchdown opportunities. He scored one goal in his first six games and 11 points in his last 11 (43.8% success rate within five games). That saved his fantasy season, not to mention the Bengals getting him into a lot of games.
So can Mixon continue scoring for the Texans? Will he still be able to get the desired number of touches? Is the attack appropriate?
The answer to all three questions is yes, but with an asterisk.
With the current state of the roster, Mixon should definitely be the goal linebacker. Dameon Pierce wasn't very good in his rookie year (3 TDs on 9 rushes), but he was even worse in his second season (2 TDs on 9 rushes). No one else profiles the role.
Beyond goal-line carries, Mixon thinks he's as good as Devin Singletary in terms of rushing. That's because the two profiled as similar rushers last year, and they're both pretty even in almost every rushing metric. The difference between the two was their ability to score from short range.
| player | PPR/gram | G | Rsh/G | Yd/Rsh | RshTD | Within 5% | %Rs0Neg | %Rs5+ | explosion rate | avoid% |
| Devin Singletary | 9.84 | 17 | 12.7 | 4.2 | Four | 22.2% | 16.2% | 33.8% | 7.9% | 13.9% |
| Joe Mixon | 15.71 | 17 | 15.1 | 4.0 | 9 | 33.3% | 16.0% | 31.9% | 7.8% | 12.1% |
Singletary returned to Houston last season (Weeks 9-18) as the undisputed lead, averaging 16.7 carries and 2.3 receptions per game. A similar workload could await his Mixon in 2024.
An important digression occurs here. Another big difference between Mixon and Singletary was their passing game production. Frankly, Mixon has been better than Singletary for many years. Over the past four seasons, Mixon has outperformed Singletary in every possible reception, with a surprising difference in explosive pass play rates: Mixon 7%, Singletary 4.7%.
In terms of scheme fit, Mixon is a good fit considering Bengals coach and playcaller Zac Taylor comes from the same coaching tree and has similar coaching principles as Texans playcaller Bobby Slowik. It seems easy for someone to understand.
But there you have it, the first of several asterisks.
Slowik's Texans ran more zone scheme runs than power gap runs. Since 2022, Mixon has excelled in power gap running. Offensive line play is a big factor here, and the Texans may have felt they were better off using zone because they didn't have the physicality or athleticism to match a power-gap scheme. The more Houston adds, the better it is for Mixon in theory.
The Texans, led by Slowik, also used multiple players to launch a fierce attack. Singletary didn't play much on third down last season and wasn't a big factor when the Texans trailed in the second half. Mixon himself was in a similar position, spending most of 2023 off the field on third down. It would be great to see Mixon take over Singletary's role, but it might mean he's not a third-down player yet.
Additionally, it would make a lot of sense for the Texans to make their second running back a rookie who could become a starter as early as 2025, when Mixon's contract expires. If Houston drafts a player like Jonathon Brooks or Jalen Wright (who excelled in zone-based run schemes in college), Mixon could lose more touches than originally thought. .
And if that happens, everything from Mixon's workload to his touchdown production will be thrown into question.
So Mixon currently stands out as a potential running back with 1,400 total yards and eight touchdowns on one of the rising offenses in the league. This isn't just good, it's close to top 15 for the position. If he manages to get through the rest of the offseason without adding any serious competition, he'll be in the running for the fourth round at the latest. If competition does start, he could drop to 60th overall, somewhere between the fifth and sixth rounds. If you draft before May, Mixon late in the fifth round is fine. And if you're on a dynasty, Mixon would be on the roster to win right now since there are no guarantees after this year.
