The United States has signaled a possible strategic shift away from traditional intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) systems to more advanced platforms that leverage new technologies, such as space-based assets and stealth drones.
This month, The Warzone reported that U.S. Secretary of the Air Force Frank Kendall hinted at the new ISR platform during a roundtable discussion ahead of the Farnborough International Airshow in the UK.
The discussion began with aviation journalist Chris Pocock asking about the U.S.'s ISR future after the retirement of the U-2 Dragon Lady and RQ-4 Global Hawk, to which Kendall described future ISR as “a mix of things, including space-based capabilities and new systems like the E-7 command and control node.”
While details are scarce, the Northrop Grumman RQ-180 stealth drone, known as the “White Bat” and designed for contested airspace, is likely to be key to the new high-tech strategy, according to a report from The War Zone.
The report noted that despite Congressional opposition to the phase-out, the Air Force plans to retire the U-2, which has been in service since the 1950s, and the RQ-4 drones, first introduced in 2001, by the end of 2026 and 2027, respectively.
The move reflects a strategic shift by the U.S. toward more survivable, modern ISR systems amid growing threats from hostile air defenses, particularly from China and Russia.
According to The War Zone, new ISR approaches will likely emphasize distributed concepts and advanced computing to collect and prioritize critical data for exploitation in near real time.
If the RQ-180 continues to receive government funding, it could serve multiple roles, including electronic attack and data sharing, marking a departure from older platforms that are deemed too vulnerable for modern warfare, they say.
Recent losses of U.S. drones in Yemen may have exposed the limitations of older drones like the MQ-9, whose design and underlying technology date back to the 1990s. These losses are likely a catalyst for the U.S. to rethink its strategy regarding drone development and use.
In June 2024, the Asia Times reported that the US had lost multiple MQ-9 Reaper drones to Houthi rebels in Yemen, whose basic air defense systems were able to shoot down the expensive drones.
While the MQ-9 is considered expendable, its $30 million price tag has raised widespread concerns about the US strategy of using drones in modern warfare, and the MQ-9 is considered too expensive and takes too long to regenerate to operate within range of surface-to-air missiles (SAMs).
The MQ-9 was designed at a time when the United States took air superiority for granted. It was built to maximize endurance with a limited payload. But the MQ-9 was not designed for maneuverability, making it vulnerable to large-scale combat operations.
Writing in the December 2022 issue of the peer-reviewed journal Security Studies, Antonio Calcara and other authors point out that current generation drones such as the MQ-9 have a larger radar cross section (RCS) than commonly assumed, reducing the benefits of their small size.
Modern air defense systems can counter these characteristics through radar adjustments and elevation tactics, they say. They add that flying at low altitudes reduces detection range but is risky and can be countered by airborne radar.
They note that whether next-generation drones will provide an offensive advantage will depend on further developments in drone and air defense technology.
But they warn that advances in air defense technology — including improved radar, big data and machine learning — will continue to pose a challenge to drones.
Taking these points into consideration, Karkala and his colleagues reject the assumption that drones will always break through, emphasize the evolution of military technology, and call for a balanced consideration of offensive and defensive innovations.
Stealthier, more survivable drones like the RQ-180 would allow the United States to bolster the ISR capabilities of weaker allies like the Philippines and support Philippine diplomatic and military efforts should the United States need to intervene directly under the Mutual Defense Treaty.
Although a series of significant maritime confrontations have called into question the feasibility of the Philippines’ “firm and transparent” strategy toward China, making it clear that China does not fear the reputational damage that would come from aggressive actions, U.S. ISR support could be crucial to improving Philippine diplomatic efforts against China in the South China Sea dispute.
As the United States and the Philippines finalize their General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA) information-sharing pact, the capabilities provided by advanced ISR assets such as the RQ-180 could be crucial to the pact's usefulness and success.
The United States could also use advanced drones like the RQ-180 to bolster the Philippines' weak ISR capabilities, bolstering the Philippines' underpowered military position in the South China Sea and making it a more viable defensive outpost for the United States in the first island chain.
In June 2024, the Asia Times noted that the Philippines lacks long-range ISR capabilities, so the use of its newly acquired and much-touted BrahMos missiles may be limited to the short range of its limited ISR assets, with ranges of just a few dozen kilometers from the coast. The Philippines does not have an over-the-horizon (OTH) radar, a capability typically reserved for major military powers.
Instead of specialized airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) aircraft, the Philippines has a motley fleet of Beechcraft King Air C-90s, BN-2A Islanders and Cessna 208s that are largely unsuited for the mission.
Additionally, the Philippines has only a limited number of Hermes and ScanEagle drones, which are slow and vulnerable to China's advanced air defense systems.
Given these deficiencies, the United States may use advanced drones to improve the Philippines' ISR capabilities, as evidenced by the deployment of MQ-9A Reaper drones in support of the SINKEX exercise in May.
During the joint exercise, the Philippine frigate BRP Jose Rizal sank a decommissioned Chinese-made oil tanker with ISR support from a U.S. MQ-9A drone.
However, the MQ-9 may struggle against China's advanced air defenses, just as it was unable to withstand basic air defenses when previously deployed against Houthi rebels in Yemen.
If the United States were to introduce advanced drones like the RQ-180, it could set off a larger drone arms race in the Indo-Pacific region, pitting America's high-tech drones against China's mass-production capabilities.
This month, the South China Morning Post (SCMP) reported that the United States and China are investing heavily in unmanned aerial vehicles and AI to bolster their strategic capabilities in the Indo-Pacific region, inspired by advanced drone technology seen in the Ukraine and Gaza conflicts.
China has significantly accelerated its drone development over the past two years, developing faster, smarter and more adaptable drones for its navy, army and air force, catching the attention of military observers around the world.
The SCMP argues that the People's Liberation Army (PLA) has become tactically on par with the U.S. military by integrating unmanned aerial vehicles and other drone technology with manned weapons.
The plan highlights that China is developing what may be the world's first dedicated drone carrier, as well as the Type 076 amphibious assault ship capable of supporting drones, other aircraft and strike forces.
China's drone strategy, which emphasizes mass production and low unit costs, could have a major impact on future combat operations and the operation of maritime aircraft carriers, SCMP reported.
