• Double dip at wide receiver early: In 10-team leagues, it’s OK to wait a little longer at quarterback and tight end, allowing this team to be strong at wide receiver early.
• Stock up on running backs in the middle: There are only so many running backs who are clear starters or high-upside players in committees. Aim to draft more of them than your opponents.
• Get a head start on fantasy football: Use PFF’s fantasy football mock draft simulator to create real live mock draft simulations to get ready for your live draft!
Estimated reading time: 14 minutes
The perfect draft series combines current ADPs from expert and casual drafts to see who should be available at each pick and make the best picks given that information. This draft is designed for 10-team PPR leagues for anyone picking first, second or third.
Last updated: 7:15 a.m. Tuesday, July 23
Round 1, Picks 1-3: Draft a wide receiver
Anyone with the top overall pick should take McCaffrey with little hesitation. He scored over 100 more PPR points than any other running back last season and has the perfect combination of talent, opportunity and situation. Anyone missing out needs to pivot to a wide receiver. No quarterback or tight end is worth a first-round pick this year, and every other running back is more than a gamble.
For the rest of the article, we’ll assume a wide receiver is picked here, but anyone who was lucky enough to add McCaffrey should pivot to wide receiver in Round 3 or 4.
Top Target: CeeDee Lamb (Player Profile)
Lamb noticeably improved each season and is now at the top of the position. He finished 2023 as the top wide receiver and has less competition for targets this season after Tony Pollard‘s and Michael Gallup‘s departure. The only notable addition is sixth-round receiver Ryan Flournoy, which will have no impact on Lamb’s target share.
In contrast, Justin Jefferson has a new quarterback, Ja’Marr Chase’s quarterback is coming back from injury and Tyreek Hill is 30 years old, adding a little risk to each of their profiles.
Possible Targets: Tyreek Hill, Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, Amon-Ra St. Brown, A.J. Brown
Round 2, Picks 18-20: Draft a wide receiver
The depth at this point of the draft is at wide receiver, so it’s fine to start with two. It’s too early to pick a quarterback or tight end, and there is better value at running back in the upcoming rounds. Multiple wide receiver options are expected to take big leaps this season or be a fantasy starter this year.
Top Target: Chris Olave (Player Profile)
Olave has been an underrated wide receiver in his two years with the New Orleans Saints. His per-route production has been excellent. His 87.2 PFF receiving grade over his first two seasons ranks eighth among wide receivers over the past decade. Olave recently celebrated his 24th birthday, so we can still expect improvement from the budding superstar. He finished as the WR16 last season, and it’s fair to expect him to run more routes this year, leading to more production.
Possible Targets: Drake London, Brandon Aiyuk, Mike Evans, D.K. Metcalf, Deebo Samuel Sr.
Round 3, Picks 21-23: Draft a wide receiver or running back
There is some flexibility on where to go from here in the draft. It’s still too early for a quarterback or tight end. You can survive with picking a wide receiver in one of the next two rounds and just having a weakness at running back and a huge strength at wide receiver. There are multiple undervalued running backs available in this range, and it would be good to pick two in the next two rounds. If you did pick Christian McCaffrey in the first round, then it’s fine to only pick one running back in the next two picks.
Top Target: Isiah Pacheco (Player Profile)
Pacheco’s biggest reason for optimism is the Kansas City Chiefs didn’t re-sign 32-year-old running back Jerick McKinnon, who had been the Chiefs’ primary third down and two-minute drill back for the last two seasons. He was also a primary backup on early downs, particularly near the goal line. Those goal-line plays helped McKinnon to 13 receiving touchdowns over the last two seasons. While Clyde Edwards-Helaire should get the majority of this work, this should give Pacheco a chance to improve on his RB15 season from a year ago.
Possible Targets: De’Von Achane, Brandon Aiyuk, Mike Evans, James Cook, Joe Mixon
Round 4, Picks 38-40: Draft a running back or wide receiver
Here is a fine time to stick with running backs and wide receivers. While I generally advocate for landing a quarterback and tight end early, it’s okay to wait in this case because options that are good enough will be available in the fifth and sixth rounds. The gap between running back and wide receivers between now and a few rounds from now is larger, so it’s better to stick with those positions here.
Top Target: James Cook (Player Profile)
Cook showed he could be a versatile runner in his second season, playing well on gap or zone plays while playing particularly well even when plays weren’t perfectly blocked or he faced an eight-man box. He’s been particularly good at consistently breaking longer runs. Once Ken Dorsey was fired and Joe Brady took over as the Buffalo Bills offensive coordinator, Cook touched the ball much more often. His opportunities should remain high after the losses at receiver and veteran backup running backs.
Possible Targets: D.K. Metcalf, Joe Mixon, DeVonta Smith, D.J. Moore, Stefon Diggs
Round 5, Picks 41-43: Draft a quarterback or tight end
After avoiding quarterback and tight end the first four rounds, now is the time to pick those positions. The only question is which one you would like to pick first. All of the top quarterbacks and tight ends available in this round won’t be available in Round 6. It is a little risky to pick quarterback first because there is a chance George Kittle and Kyle Pitts won’t be available in Round 6, but in this case I’m willing to take that risk.
Top Target: Lamar Jackson
Expectations were high for Jackson last season, and he lived up to the hype with an MVP season. He averaged 21.1 fantasy points per game making anyone who drafted Jackson last year happy with their decision. Now, Jackson will be in the second year of Todd Monken’s offense while still having Mark Andrews and Zay Flowers as his top targets. We should expect more of the same from Jackson this season.
Possible Targets: Trey McBride, Mark Andrews, Dalton Kincaid, C.J. Stroud, George Kittle
Round 6, Picks 58-60: Draft a tight end or quarterback
This is the round to do the opposite of what you did in Round 5.
Top Target: George Kittle
On a per-play basis, Kittle has been roughly as good as Travis Kelce, but he plays for the San Francisco 49ers, who have been one of the most run-heavy teams in the league, while Kelce is with the Kansas City Chiefs, who are among the most pass-heavy. Brock Purdy playing quarterback has helped Kittle’s efficiency with more big plays and more touchdowns. Kittle was the only tight end last season to reach 1,000 yards, but he doesn’t get as many receptions as other great tight ends. Kittle has ranked top six in fantasy points per game for a tight end in each of the last six seasons, and it’s reasonable to expect him to extend that streak to seven seasons.
Possible Targets: Joe Burrow, Dak Prescott, Kyler Murray, Jake Ferguson, Jordan Love
Round 7, Picks 61-63: Draft a running back
The running backs, at this point of the draft, are favorites to start when healthy but are facing significant competition. While these running backs aren’t necessarily the most exciting names, only so many are expected to be clear starters on their team even if they are on the older side. It’s good to have someone you can put in your starting lineup every week as long as they aren’t injured.
Top Target: Aaron Jones (Player Profile)
Jones is tied for fifth in PFF offensive grade over the last three seasons at 90.7, but he’s been held back by the Green Bay Packers‘ running back committee. Jones only has eight rushing touchdowns over the last three years compared to the bigger A.J. Dillon‘s 14. He played over 60% of Green Bay’s offensive snaps in half of games in 2021 and 2022, but that fell to just the final game of 2023 thanks to an injury-filled season.
In Minnesota, he will have minimal competition for snaps and touches compared to other running backs. Given how successful he’s been regardless of the situation, he is worth the risk at this point of the draft given he will be 30 by the end of the season and his recent injury history.
Possible Targets: James Conner, Zamir White, Rhamondre Stevenson, D’Andre Swift, Tony Pollard
Round 8, Picks 78-80: Draft a wide receiver
With a top-six quarterback and tight end secured, the next several picks will be some combination of running back and wide receiver. When you have a top-six quarterback or tight end, you’re not benching them because a backup has a better matchup. That means a backup is only necessary in case of injuries, so you can draft more running backs and wide receivers before making lineup decisions based on matchups and who breaks out.
In this case, a wide receiver is best to pick because several proven players are in new situations this year. Ideally, the new situation allows them to outperform their ADP. If it doesn’t, then hopefully one of the several sleeper wide receivers picked later ends up breaking out.
Top Target: Diontae Johnson (Player Profile)
Johnson finished as WR28 in 2022 while tied for sixth in targets with Kenny Pickett in his rookie season. He was traded to the Carolina Panthers, where he should be their X receiver and the team’s clear leader in targets. Everything indicates we could be in store for a similar season to 2022 this year if Young can’t improve. If Young can improve, we could see a season like 2021 where he was the overall WR8.
Possible Targets: DeAndre Hopkins, Ladd McConkey, Rashee Rice, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Jordan Addison
Round 9, Picks 81-83: Draft a running back
There is a tier of running backs where there is no clear and obvious starter on the team, but it’s a situation where there are multiple talented running backs on the team, and someone is capable of emerging as a starter player. Once running backs in that tier are all picked, there is a big dropoff in potential. Even though running back is generally a strength of this team, it’s nice to have multiple options for when things go wrong.
Top Target: Tony Pollard
Pollard has the fourth-highest offensive grade for a running back over the last four seasons at 91.3, behind only Christian McCaffrey, Derrick Henry and Nick Chubb. Expectations were high last season after the Dallas Cowboys let go of Ezekiel Elliott. Unfortunately, it took time for him to recover from his leg injuries from the 2022 divisional playoff round. By Week 11, he was back to his former self. He was the highest-graded rusher from that point on, finishing as RB13. He was finally receiving the playing time he deserved but wasn’t getting the ball enough when he was on the field.
Now, he’s with the Tennessee Titans and competing for playing time with Tyjae Spears. The sophomore running back is also very talented, but given Pollard’s past production, he has a chance to be the lead back in the Joe Mixon role in Brian Callahan’s offense.
Possible Targets: Jaylen Warren, Zack Moss, Jonathon Brooks, Javonte Williams, Devin Singletary
Round 10, Picks 98-100: Draft a quarterback, running back or Brock Bowers
At this point, the team is well-rounded, and I typically wouldn’t advocate picking a backup quarterback after drafting a top-five player, but Jayden Daniels has too much potential to pass up at this point of the draft. A similar case can be made for not drafting a backup tight end with a great tight end on the roster, but similarly Brock Bowers has a lot of potential. If you would like to stick with having lots of wide receivers and running backs, then the running back tier mention in Round 9 can still be taken advantage of in Round 10.
Top Target: Jayden Daniels
Daniels was the second quarterback off the board in the 2024 NFL Draft and should be greatly helped by his rushing production. He achieved a 91.5 PFF rushing grade throughout his college career, which is the best among Power-Five quarterbacks over the last decade, joining Lamar Jackson, Anthony Richardson and Caleb Williams. He similarly has the most avoided tackles while Jackson and Jalen Hurts ranked in the top five. His passing shouldn’t be overlooked either, as he has the best mechanics of any passer in the class.
The Washington Commanders added offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury. Kyler Murray was a top-12 fantasy quarterback in points per game all four seasons Kingsbury was his head coach, including his 2019 rookie season. Every quarterback with 100 or more rushing attempts in the last decade has averaged at least 18 fantasy points per start, a number that should easily be within Daniels’ reach.
Possible Targets: Javonte Williams, Devin Singletary, Brock Bowers, Tyjae Spears, Caleb Williams
Round 11, Picks 101-103: Draft a running back or wide receiver
To this point, the draft has been very running back-heavy. While this team should be very strong at wide receiver after the first two rounds, the third wide receiver has a lot more question marks. Because of that, the next three picks should be wide receivers. If you pivoted earlier in the draft, there are a few alternative options, but generally, there are lots of starting wide receivers still available at this point of the draft, but there isn’t nearly as much depth at other positions.
Top Target: Courtland Sutton (Player Profile)
Sutton has finished over 60% of his games as a top-36 fantasy wide receiver each of the last two seasons but has rarely finished among the top 12. Sutton is the clear top wide receiver on the Denver Broncos‘ depth chart after trading away his main competition Jerry Jeudy. If Sutton reports to training camp despite his contract situation or if he receives a new contract, he’s a perfect complementary piece to a team drafting many wide receivers.
Possible Targets: Devin Singletary, Tyler Lockett, Brian Thomas Jr., Ezekiel Elliott, Keon Coleman
Round 12, Picks 118-120: Draft a wide receiver or Trevor Lawrence
Top Target: Mike Williams
Williams finished last season with the 10th-most fantasy points per game at wide receiver, albeit on three games played. He caught 15 passes for 204 yards and a touchdown in his last two games but then tore his ACL. His injury history is extensive, and he might not be ready to start the season. Williams signed with the New York Jets in free agency, and his new head coach Robert Saleh compared his timeline to Breece Hall’s last year. Williams may not be a fantasy starter in September or October, but if the Jets’ offense is playing well, he could be a steal over the second half of the season.
Possible Targets: Trevor Lawrence, Brandin Cooks, Curtis Samuel, Jakobi Meyers, Rashid Shaheed
Round 13, Picks 121-123: Draft a wide receiver
Top Target: Brandin Cooks
It took a few weeks for Cooks to start producing in the Dallas Cowboys offense last season, but he scored the 24th-most fantasy points for a wide receiver from Week 6 until the end of the season. As mentioned with CeeDee Lamb, the offense has lost some of its receiving production and didn’t bring in much to replace them, which should put more emphasis on the other Cowboys receivers. A lot of Cooks’ fantasy production came from touchdowns which is bound to regress, but three of his best four games in terms of targets and receptions came in the last three weeks of the season including the playoffs. If Cooks can continue that momentum into the 2024 season, he will be one of the biggest steals of the draft.
Possible Targets: Mike Williams, Curtis Samuel, Jakobi Meyers, Rashid Shaheed, Joshua Palmer
Round 14-18: Fill Depth
Use any additional picks to pick a kicker and team defense if your league plays with them and forces you to draft them. If not, stock up on more running backs and wide receivers.
