NFL training camp season is upon us, folks. Get ready for a flurry of information, rumors and hype. But fantasy managers need not be alarmed by the influx of information. Scott Pianowski has one important thing to know about each team. First up, the NFC South.
Atlanta Falcons
Kyle Pitts has been a disappointment in fantasy through three seasons, throwing just six touchdowns and inconsistently hitting his ADP, but that's probably mostly down to the failure of the players around him: The Falcons haven't had a league-average rated quarterback since Pitts joined the team, a situation that was likely out of reach for outgoing head coach Arthur Smith.
Pitts is entering his age-24 season and still developing. Let's not forget that he recorded 1,026 yards receiving in 2021, the second-most ever by a rookie tight end. Kirk Cousins is clearly a much-needed quarterback upgrade for the Falcons, and new OC Zach Robinson spent five years learning under offensive wizard Sean McVay. Given Atlanta's fine line schedule, Pitts still makes sense as an aggressive fantasy pick and is currently ranked as the No. 7 TE in the Yahoo Draft.
Carolina Panthers
Bryce Young's rookie season was tough to watch, as he was below par in every major efficiency stat except for interception avoidance, but head coach Dave Canales might be able to fix Young. There were traces of Canales in Baker Mayfield's career season last year and he was a driving force behind Geno Smith's emergence in 2022.
Even if Young develops, it may be hard to make a case for fantasy value in traditional leagues, and he's probably best left as a backup option or for superflex consideration, but modest expectations for Young could push Diontaie Johnson into reliable fantasy territory. Johnson won't have to work much to beat his current Yahoo tag of WR35, as he has very little competition for targets in Carolina.
New Orleans Saints
Alvin Kamara is a mixed fantasy pick heading into the 2024 season. My colleague Andy Behrens has recently made some statements defending Kamara, and I always respect his opinions. However, I am concerned that Kamara has recently placed more emphasis on volume than flashiness, which has me discounting the veteran entering his age-29 season.
Kamara has been a reliable fantasy producer since his 2023 suspension, finishing fifth in PPR scoring at 0.5 points per game. That ranking was bolstered by his regular use in the passing game, where he had 75 catches, second-most in the league. While his reception numbers were impressive, those plays weren't as successful. Kamara's 6.2 yards per catch was the lowest of his career and down 2.4 yards from the previous year.
The warning signs are even more pronounced for Kamara as a runner. Last year, he only gained 3.9 yards per carry and never rushed for 20 or more yards. (The lack of explosiveness was astonishing; Baltimore reserve Keaton Mitchell ran for 20 or more yards seven times on just 47 carries.) All told, Kamara averaged 5.4 yards per touch, his third straight drop and a far cry from the 8.3 yards per touch he recorded in his rookie season.
The Saints aren't going out of their way to lure Kamara to an easy touchdown, as he has just 10 in his past 28 games. Taysom Hill will likely provide some goal-line action, and second-year back Kendre Miller is an intriguing option despite a botched first season (mostly marred by injuries, but flourished in Week 18). Given Kamara's age and declining efficiency, he's not a likely destination for a fantasy pick this summer.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Receiver touchdown rates are often random, but consistent play design makes sense. Mike Evans has long been a designated touchdown threat in Tampa Bay's passing game, and even entering his age-31 season, he remains an attractive fantasy pick.
Evans, of course, is best known for rushing for over 1,000 yards in all 10 pro seasons, and is probably already a Hall of Famer. But it's the touchdowns that make Evans a fantasy king: He's spiked the ball 46 times over the past four years, including a league-high 13 touchdown catches last year.
Compare that to Chris Godwin, a less-scoring but more reliable possession receiver. Godwin has 50 more receptions than Evans over the past four seasons, but has a modest 17 touchdowns over that same span, 29 points behind his teammate. While differences like this can last for a season or two, considering this touchdown trend has continued for four years, it's wise to follow it. Yahoo's drafters have done just that, bumping Evans up into the WR14 slot and Godwin into a modest WR36.
