Every week in American politics is a major drama.
Donald Trump narrowly survived an assassination attempt last weekend, and now Joe Biden is infected with COVID-19 and facing increasing pressure to step down as the Democratic nominee for president in November.
Also joining us on the podcast is Joe Hockey, the former Australian ambassador to Washington, who is attending the Republican Convention this week.
Summarising the atmosphere at the tournament, Hockey said:
To be honest, there is an energy that has emerged following last Saturday's assassination attempt that I did not expect. […] The people are positive – not aggressive, just positive, and very energetic.
The “tremendous support” for Trump stands in stark contrast to the division Hockey witnessed at the 2016 Republican National Convention, but he agreed that the former president seemed unusually calm this week.
People that I've talked to, people that have talked to him, say this is a different Donald Trump. He's obviously had a near-death experience, and the normal aggression that permeates the Democratic and Republican conventions has been toned down a lot by his hands. So I think there's no doubt he was very affected by the assassination attempt.
Most Likely to Succeed Biden
As for calls for Biden to withdraw, Hockey said he previously assumed the president would keep fighting and stay on, but efforts by Biden's office over the past 48 hours to speed up the confirmation process have backfired.
In the end, it only accelerated Democratic Party leaders' calls for Joe Biden to step down. [do] Will they do that? That's uncharted territory. Obviously in Australia, unfortunately on a regular basis, they know how to take down the leader of their own party. In America, they don't do that.
Biden's COVID-19 infection and poor performance have increased the possibility that the president may be forced to resign.
I watched a couple of his interviews and they're just depressing. I think it's really interesting that no one is celebrating or celebrating that Joe Biden is in poor health. No one is mentioning it. No one is talking about it. Because we all had parents or grandparents who experienced this cognitive decline.
As for who is the most likely candidate to replace Biden? Hockey says he'd be “stunned” if Vice President Kamala Harris doesn't run, especially since as of today, Harris is already outperforming Biden in the polls.
What it means for Australia
On Australia's relationship with a potential second term for President Trump, Hockey explains what Prime Minister Anthony Albanese should do in his first phone call.
Mr. Albanese should give Mr. Trump something on the call that shows we're serious. It could be the next down payment on the submarine purchase — bringing the purchase forward — or it could be something else. But Donald Trump is a man of action.
I think it's important to remind him that we've already written the United States a check for $3 billion for the Virginia submarines, and that we're working really hard. […] The starting point for Donald Trump is that Australia is a great country and a great friend.
A divided America will have global implications
“It's a very real opportunity,” Hockey said of the trajectory of what's happening in America.
I think there's a lot to be worried about. In my opinion, the United States remains the biggest sovereign risk for companies operating outside of Australia. And that's because there's so much uncertainty in the United States. So the key thing is […] What we all need to understand is that there is a political divide in America over policy. There is a policy divide between Republicans and Democrats.
In terms of taxation, there is a difference in tax rates between Trump and Biden, and there is also a big gap in terms of regulations, but of course climate change is also a major issue. […] In other words, there is a big, deep divide between the political parties, which is why they are so enthusiastic about elections.
