Follow our Olympics coverage in the run up to the Paris Games.
For many years, the sound of “The Star-Spangled Banner” has echoed throughout Olympic swimming venues.
From the 1992 Barcelona Games to the pandemic-delayed 2021 Tokyo Games, the U.S. swimming team won more gold medals than any other team. The U.S. national anthem was played many times as U.S. swimmers stood on the podium to accept their gold medals. The last time the U.S. team did not win the most gold medals in a single Olympic Games was in 1988, when they came second to East Germany. None of the swimmers on the current roster were alive at the time.
American swimmers have won medal totals and gold medals so many times over the years that it's almost taken for granted. Of course, Michael Phelps' 23 medals in four Olympic Games helps, but he's not the only one. Americans have often been number one in their favorite events and have often won relays.
But that advantage is by no means certain. Heading into Paris, Australia is likely to have the most gold medals in the pool. A year ago, Australia outshone the United States at the world championships in Fukuoka, Japan, winning 13 gold medals to the U.S.'s seven. Although the U.S. team won the medal count (38 to 25), the color of their medals wasn't as golden as in previous years.
The same could happen in Paris. It's a possibility the US does not fear, and one it is determined to avoid.
“Historically, the United States has outdone any other country in the world and performed at a high level,” said U.S. women's head coach Todd DeSorbo. “Obviously, there are some events where both the men's and women's teams have big jobs to make up for, but I'm confident that the drive, enthusiasm and dedication of the entire team, men and women, is primed to get it done and achieve something pretty special.”
Australian star Kate Campbell is among those hoping for the opposite, as she enjoyed what she heard – or didn't hear – at the world championships.
“It's great that Australia won, but it's even better that we beat the U.S.,” Campbell told Australia's Channel 9 last August. “Especially on the first night of competition, there were a couple of nights when 'The Star-Spangled Banner' wasn't playing in the stadium. I can't tell you how good that made me.”
“If I ever hear that song again, it will be too early.”
It was the first time since 2001 that the U.S. did not win the most gold medals at the world championships. Of the nine swimmers who won multiple individual gold medals, Katie Ledecky was the only American swimmer to win a gold medal. “The world is getting better,” Bob Bowman, head coach of the U.S. men's team at the world championships, told reporters in Japan. Australia set five world records at this tournament alone. Neither seven-time Olympic gold medalist Caleb Dressel nor two-time gold medalist Simone Manuel will compete in Japan; both will swim in Paris.
Katie Ledecky is the favorite to win gold in the 800m and 1,500m freestyle in Paris, but the rest of the races are unpredictably competitive. (Sarah Steer/Getty Images)
Though Campbell failed to qualify for the Paris Games, her comments drew strong backlash, including when she called the U.S. “sour grapes” for celebrating their victory after Australia nearly doubled their gold medal haul. The remarks irritated Phelps, who served as a commentator for NBC during the U.S. qualifiers last month. Phelps said that if any athlete said such things about him, “I'd make them take back everything they ever said about me,” and said he hoped the U.S. would use the video as motivation.
“Well, the good news is the Olympics are coming up and we'll see how it goes,” Phelps said.
For the first time in a long time, it's hard to know what to expect. Ledecky, a seven-time Olympic gold medalist, is likely to win gold in the 800m and 1,500m freestyle. Other than that, the races are too intense to make any confident predictions. Also, Ledecky's rival, Ariarne Titmus of Australia, is likely to win the 400m freestyle. Fellow Australian Molly O'Callaghan is the star of the 100m and 200m freestyle.
American star sprinter Dressel has a chance to defend the gold medals he won in Tokyo in the 50m freestyle and 100m butterfly. He looked strong at the trials but is still in the process of returning to competition after an eight-month absence from swimming from mid-2022 to early 2023. (He will not have a chance to defend his gold medal because the trials did not qualify him for the 100m freestyle, which will be held as an individual event in Paris.) Bobby Finke is the favorite to win the 1500m freestyle, and Ryan Murphy is expected to compete in both backstroke events. But none of the three are as overwhelming a favorite to win as they were in Tokyo.
Caleb Dressel returns as the face of the U.S. men's team with a chance to defend his gold medals in the 50-meter freestyle and 100-meter butterfly. (Sarah Steer/Getty Images)
Alongside Ledecky, the women's team will be dominated by Gretchen Walsh, Regan Smith and Kate Douglas, all of whom have far less Olympic experience than Ledecky. Walsh (100m butterfly) and Smith (100m backstroke) set world records at the trials and will compete for the title in their respective events in Paris, but this will be Walsh's first Olympic Games, and Smith won two silver medals (200m butterfly, medley relay) and one bronze medal (100m backstroke) in Tokyo. These events are also strong: Australia's Kayleigh McKeown will be tough to beat in both backstroke events, while Canada's Maggie McNeil and Summer McIntosh are strong contenders in the 100m butterfly, as is China's Zhang Yufei.
Douglas won a bronze medal in the 200m individual medley in Tokyo, but will swim a more comprehensive program, having qualified individually for the 200m butterfly and 200m individual medley at the trials (she also competed in the 100m freestyle but later withdrew from it). She set several championship records at the trials, but will face tough competition in the 200m individual medley against Canadian phenoms MacIntosh and McKean (as well as teammate Alex Walsh).
Many of Team USA's big names are likely to win medals at the Olympics, but maybe not gold. Two-time gold medalist breaststroker Lilly King, versatile distance swimmer Katie Grimes, and breaststrokers Nick Fink and Matt Fallon are all likely to win medals. Carson Foster could also win a medal, but with Frenchman Leon Marchand the overwhelming favorite to win, it's unlikely either individual medalist will win gold.
The relays will also be very competitive. The U.S. team has the advantage in the men's 4x100m freestyle relay and the women's medley relay, but the U.S. women are behind Australia in both freestyle relays, and the men will face tough competition from China in the men's medley and Great Britain in the 4x200m freestyle relay. Great Britain won the gold medal in this relay for the first time in Tokyo. It was the first time that the U.S. (men's or women's) had failed to medal in an Olympic relay event.
But perhaps most noticeable is that the team in Rio will be quite different from what it was just two Games ago, with Phelps and Ryan Lochte leading the way alongside an in-form Ledecky, and scheduled to compete in the 200m through 800m freestyle. Though Ledecky and Dressel will be heading to Paris, this team doesn't have the star power that American swimming often has, especially on the men's side. Dressel will compete in multiple events, but he has long been an enigma, not wanting to let the world know every last detail about him. Phelps and Lochte are endlessly fascinating, and in their prime, the breadth of their sport meant they were on TV almost every day of the Games.
Still, USA Swimming president and CEO Tim Hinchey III said the organization's goal is to win the medal total and gold medal count. But will that be achievable? The Americans will find out soon.
“Before the qualifiers we thought we were in a good position compared to the world, but after the qualifiers we think we're in an even better position,” DeSorbo said. “We'll just have to go to the training camp (in Croatia), get to Paris and wait for the Olympics to start.”
Going deeper
U.S. Olympic Swimming Selection Key Points: Caleb Dressel Returns, Katie Ledecky Still in Shape
(Illustration by Dan Goldfarb/ Athletic; Katie Ledecky and Caleb Dressel Photo: Tom Pennington and Al Bello/Getty Images)
