Three Flyers teams are candidates for return in 2024-25 – The Hockey Writers – Philadelphia Flyers

The Philadelphia Flyers narrowly missed the playoffs this past season and, despite adding promising Matvey Mitchkov, enter the 2024-25 season with generally low expectations. The Flyers are also destined to have a few potential bounce-back players. Who are they?

Sean Couturier is a candidate worthy of inclusion here, but I've already covered him in some detail. That aside, who are the three players most likely to develop for the Orange and Black in 2024-25?

Jamie Drysdale

Jamie Drysdale is definitely a player the Flyers can improve on for a number of reasons. Given that he was traded mid-season and has battled injuries throughout the 2023-24 season, it seems like he's destined to get even better. He's also just 22 years old and has great skill sets that could make him an elite defenseman in the future. For now, let's focus on where he is now.

It wasn't easy for Drysdale, who was traded to the Flyers on Jan. 8, 2024. Philadelphia was in the playoff picture at the time despite being viewed by some as having the worst roster in the league and a specialized style of defense that couldn't help a youngster quickly adjust. There were growing pains, too, especially since he'd been battling a sports hernia all this time.

RELATED: Flyers 2023-24 player grades: Jamie Drysdale

Playing through injury can seriously hurt a young player's production, especially if they find themselves in unique circumstances, yet his production when paired with second-pair Nick Seeler has actually been pretty solid.

Judging by the amount of time they played together late in the season, we can be reasonably confident that Drysdale will play the majority of his time with the 31-year-old veteran, at least initially. But how important will it be? Let's compare Drysdale's performance with and without his defensive partner.

In the table below, we look at Drysdale's 5v5 numbers with and without Seeler in the Orange and Black. Metrics included are expected goals per 60 minutes (xGF/60), expected goals allowed per 60 minutes (xGA/60), expected goals percentage (xGF%), Corsi percentage (CF%), plus-minus and time on ice (TOI). We explain what the advanced metrics mean here. Now, let's take a look at the stats.

Looking at the numbers, Drysdale was far better at both creating and preventing scoring chances when he was with Seeler than anyone else. The poor plus-minus rating is largely due to the Flyers' goaltending struggles, so the numbers on the left are definitely encouraging.

What's noteworthy about these statistics is that both of them got better over time. Sean Walker was Seeler's primary defensive partner, but was traded at the deadline, paving the way for Drysdale to take his place. Once the latter two players returned from injuries on April 1 and March 30, respectively, their on-ice stats were even better than those shown above.

Based on the numbers, we can be confident that Seeler will play a similar style to last season in 2024-25. Over the past two seasons, he has posted the highest xGF% (53.0) in 5-on-5 situations among the Flyers' top defensemen (Cam York, Travis Sanheim, Rasmus Ristolainen) in both seasons. He's been very consistent as of late and doesn't seem likely to regress at this point.

Going back to Drysdale, having a player like this should benefit him all season. Seeler blocks a ton of shots, moves the puck relatively well and isn't afraid of the physical side of the game. These two have a ton of potential that will be realized in the fall.

Scott Lawton

Scott Loughton, 30, has been a part of the Flyers' roster throughout his career, but he has never had a more disappointing season than he did in 2023-24, when, judging by both visual and statistical standards, he just wasn't performing to the standard the Orange and Black expected from him.

Still, there should be hope for Loughton. Not only is he still young and should be able to bounce back, but there's also a ton of evidence that the 2023-24 season was a one-and-done. He was a pretty good third-line guy throughout his career, but he fell off to play in a way that just didn't suit the Flyers' lineup. The numbers back up these assertions.

To evaluate Laughton, we will use the following stats from 5-on-5 play only: points per 60 minutes (P/60), relative xGF/60 (xGF/60 Rel), relative xGA/60 (xGA/60 Rel), relative xGF% (xGF% Rel), relative CF% (CF% Rel), relative goals percentage (GF% Rel), and average time on ice (ATOI). The “relative” numbers here are similar to the ones we used before, but instead of just using a rate metric, they are used to compare a player to his teammates, so essentially it tells us how much someone is worth.

For these statistics, we look at Loughton's three-year averages from the 2020-21 season to the 2022-23 season. We then compare those metrics to how he would have done in 2023-24. The last column in the table below shows his percentile change among all NHL forwards in that particular time period. Certainly, we see themes:

Loughton went from posting an above average usage rate and very respectable on-ice stats at 5-on-5 to just average usage rate and the worst on-ice stats in the league. Even if you take away his average point totals, it's clear we're looking at two different versions of a player here. Before last season, he was a really capable middle-six player, but it's fair to say he's not going to be a capable NHL player in 2023-24.

The good news here is that there's just too much evidence to suggest that Loughton is more of a net benefit to the third line than a burden on the ice. The difference between the two may not seem like much, but it can actually have a devastating effect on a team's statistics. That's exactly what happened with Loughton. The Flyers were much worse offensively and defensively when he was on the ice.

Simply improving seems like an easy hurdle for Loughton to clear, but there should be hope that he can improve substantially in 2024-25. He's not expected to have the best year of his career, but getting back to his old self would be a good start. Again, that may not seem like much, but such a big improvement on the ice would be a big help to the team.

It's hard to think of a Flyers player who went from hero to zero as quickly as Sam Elson. The 24-year-old rookie backup goaltender emerged as the team's primary starter from November until the end of the season and was good enough to be a Calder Trophy finalist. He put up impressive numbers early in the season, but those numbers quickly faded after Jan. 20 as his workload increased dramatically and he ranked in the 92nd percentile in total injury time among goaltenders league-wide.

We'll look at two splits for Elson, one before he was elevated to a top-tier full-time starter and one after. Stats include Save Percentage (SV%), Goals Allowed Average (GAA), Saves Above Average (GSAA), Saves Above Expected (GSAx), and TOI, along with where Elson ranked in percentiles among all goalies during that particular time period. As with Drysdale and Loughton, it's worlds apart.

Elson found himself in an impossible situation as a rookie goalie. His performance over the course of the season was one of the worst in the NHL, but it was because he wasn't ready for the workload of a top-tier goalie like Jusé Saros or Connor Hellebuyck. Unfortunately, that was the only option the Flyers had.

The Flyers didn't have an NHL-caliber goalie behind Elson who could play in games and give him a rest, and their other goalies, Cal Petersen and Felix Sandstrom, were below-average players in the American Hockey League and simply couldn't play as high-end backups in the NHL, much less at all.

For the first three months of the season, Elson was doing well, starting nearly every other game and getting plenty of rest. Of course, things changed and the Flyers had to adapt, with disastrous results.

Going into the 2024-25 season, the Flyers' backup goalie is set to be Ivan Fedotov, who was transferred from the Kontinental Hockey League (KHL) at the end of the season. His numbers weren't that good (SV% .811), but that's not surprising at all. He missed the entire 2022-23 season due to military service, so he came to the Flyers within one season of taking on a full starter role in the postseason 2023-24 season. All while being totally raw.

It's too much to ask of a player who hasn't played hockey in so long to get back in shape. Having to adapt to the North American game after a KHL season was too much to ask of him in less than two weeks. From the moment he made his debut on April 1, 2024, he was doomed to failure.

Fedotov is coming off a season of hockey and has a full offseason to adjust to his new life, so expectations should be a bit higher. The Flyers' non-Elson goalies had a combined SV% of .889, so their new backup would have to be one of the worst in the NHL to take a step back in that regard. An upgrade would go a long way, as they're still pretty close to making the playoffs with this below-average play from a goaltender.

Even if Fedotov doesn't impress, his presence alone should help Elson play his best. If Elson can get some rest instead of playing basically every game, he should get off to a better start. With Elson, quality is always more important than quantity, and having Fedotov in goal should be an advantage either way.

The 2024-25 season for the Flyers should be an entertaining one, especially with several key players set to improve. Expectations aren't all that high for the Flyers, but these three could help change that.

Statistics provided by Natural Stat Trick