UFC Denver is unique in that most of its betting lines are either coin flips or so wide that Las Vegas believes there is one clear winner. We can use this dichotomy in our analysis to distinguish between contenders in close bouts and look for underdogs in bouts that look like they will be lost by a large margin. Our trends this week include a perennially underrated flyweight and a debutant who appears to have all the skills necessary to be successful. Our betting lines this week are taken from the RotoWire MMA betting page and are accurate as of the posting date of this article.
Plays to consider on DraftKings
While the line (-400) seems a bit high for a fighter who hasn't stepped into the cage in nearly a year, Elder took great strides in his bout against Genaro Valdez, where he displayed a strong jab, great bodywork and good defensive movement. Darius Flowers is a solid kickboxer, but he was taken down four times by Michael Johnson, who rarely engaged in aggressive grappling. This suggests that Elder should be able to quickly find an escape route if he struggles on the stand.
I'm always a little nervous when a debutant shows up on a card without much hype, but Fatima Klein's performance at regionals was impressive. “The Archangel” is light on her feet and strikes accurately from long distances, and is a skilled control/submission grappler once the fight gets to the mat. Jasmine Jasdavicius' lack of speed leaves her vulnerable from long distances. She may have a slight advantage in strength, but the skill gap is too great and I don't see anything but a Klein win coming.
Petrosky's string of lackluster performances is likely why this fight is so close, but I'm not convinced Josh Fremd is going to perform well against an opponent who puts all his effort into his grappling right from the start of the fight. Not only does Fremd have a very low takedown defense rate of 31%, but we've seen him crumble when fighters apply sustained pressure. His height and reach advantage might keep him from overpowering Fremd, but it won't be long before Petrosky has this fight his way.
While not as relentless as Petroski, Santos keeps her opponents on her toes and delivers some serious punches when she closes the distance. We've seen Maria Agapova completely worn down in previous bouts, but Santos effortlessly combines striking with grappling to push the pace. Agapova is dangerous when attacking from kickboxing range, but the fact that she has been taken down at least twice in each of her last three losses doesn't inspire confidence that she can stay standing against a determined opponent.
The knockout prop would almost certainly be the preferred bet in the betting world on a Silva vs. Drew Dober bout. Still, I believe it offers more value as Silva has a more active grappling style and Dober has been taken to the ground at least three times in his five UFC bouts. We know how hard it is to inflict damage on Dober even when hit cleanly, so Silva would be well-served to take the path of least resistance, which would not only help him rack up points but also secure a win against the gatekeeper of an elite division.
Plays to consider when winning money – Important strikes
Muslim Salikhov: 41.5 effective strokes or more, Rose Namajunas: 87.5 effective strokes or more, Christian Rodriguez: under 57.5 effective strokes
Salikhov's line-up seems to suggest an early finish or a grappling-heavy game plan. The problem is, “The King of Kung Fu” has only scored one KO/TKO in his last four wins and is averaging just 1.3 takedowns per 15 minutes of cage time. Add in the fact that this is the first time since 2018 that Santiago Ponzinibbio knocked out Alex Morono, and the bout is likely to be mostly kickboxing for the majority of the 15 minutes. A strategy of limited strike counts in stand-up fights earned him an easy win over Andrei Arlovski at UFC 303, and it looks like it will pay off here as well.
Namajunas can get caught using too much footwork and becoming too defensive against certain opponents, but that likely won't be an option against a Tracy Cortez who charges at her opponents and can land four or more strikes per minute. “Thug Rose” should thrive against opponents who engage in striking due to her ability to change angles and land counter shots over the course of five rounds. Cortez will likely launch wrestling attacks, but Rose's speed advantage should keep her safely in space.
Christian Rodriguez will be pleased to face striker Julian Erosa, as four of his five UFC opponents have almost exclusively attempted grappling. Erosa has wrestling prowess but is more of an opportunistic submission seeker than a master of top control, while Rodriguez has shown an incredible ability to get back to his feet. I rarely aim for knockouts when predicting these lines, but with two big swingers like “Juicy J” and Rodriguez, it's hard to imagine either of them going to get the finish.
Plays to consider when winning prize money – Fight Time
Gabriel Bonfim under 10 minutes, Abdul Razak Alhassan under 6.25 minutes
Leading up to the Ange Roosa vs. Bryan Battle bout, I noticed that “The Last Ninja” seemed to be staggered by hard strikes every time he entered the cage. This pattern continued before the bout was ruled a no contest due to an accidental foul. Bonfim's striking was incredibly strong and his wrestling defense held up in some areas, but he is unlikely to be able to handle Roosa's submission grappling if the bout goes to the ground. Either way, players should be prepared for a short bout.
Razak Alhassan, while not as dominant as he was when he first joined the organization, tends to struggle when opponents are able to match him in power or speed. Cody Brundage doesn't come close to meeting these standards and, while he is a strong wrestler, we've seen him disappoint too many times and can't count on him sticking to a game plan.
A bet to consider
I’m making some wild predictions here, but even my wildest predictions have a good basis. In this case, we have an opponent in Joshua Vann. He loves to fight hard. In his three UFC fights, he’s absorbed an astounding 5.77 effective strikes per minute. Johnson has been hard to hurt throughout his time at UFC, and he can control a fight whether he backs off or presses. Though he’s only finished once at UFC, Johnson’s power has been on display recently, like when he knocked down Jake Hadley in the second round in their May bout. Vann only has one loss on his record (by submission), but he still fights like he can’t get hurt, and that could hurt him here.
While not as ambitious as the play above, this one has plenty going for it. It's possible because Blackshear is the most well-rounded opponent Montel Jackson has ever faced in the Octagon. We saw “Quick” be held back for long stretches in his bout with Julio Arce, and while he ultimately won, it makes you wonder what would happen if he faced a much more athletic opponent. That would force Jackson into a wrestling exchange against a guy who has won 8 of his 14 pro MMA fights by submission.
