The battle for the NBA's Western Conference Play-In Tournament — and to avoid it all together — is heating up with less than a month left in the regular season. And there are still some star-studded races to keep an eye on.
Let's start towards the bottom where the Los Angeles Lakers and Golden State Warriors clash in a 9-on-10 game. LeBron James and Stephen Curry, who each have four NBA titles, will likely need to win two tournaments to make the playoffs and have a chance at a fifth ring.
Above Los Angeles and Golden State, there are three teams battling for the coveted 6 seed: the Sacramento Kings, Phoenix Suns and Dallas Mavericks. Thanks to Wednesday's double-digit win against the Lakers, the Kings now have the inside track.
What will the ranking be? Which team has the toughest schedule remaining? Which matchups and stats matter the most? Our NBA insiders tell you what's in store for each candidate and what they'll do to make the playoffs. Analyzing what needs to be done.
Note: The strength of the rest of the schedule and seeding odds are courtesy of ESPN Basketball Power Index (BPI).
6. Sacramento Kings
2023-24 season results: 38-27
Remaining SOS: No.19
BPI odds for 6th seed: 46.8%
Other than Domantas Sabonis' nightly double-double performances (48 straight games, the third-longest season streak since the NBA-ABA merger in 1976-77), there's nothing to take for granted about this team. However, since losing at home to the Chicago Bulls in which they lost a 22-point lead, the Kings have won four of their past five games and have a season-high 11 games over .500. Since the All-Star break, Sacramento has won over the No. 1 Denver Nuggets (twice), No. 3 Minnesota Timberwolves, and No. 4 LA Clippers in the past month.
As of March, the club ranked in the top five in terms of offense and top five in net rating. There has been one bright spot recently on the defensive side of this multi-layered group. Second-year guard Keon Ellis held Damian Lillard and D'Angelo Russell to under 10 points in back-to-back games this week.
Still, De'Aaron Fox, Sabonis and the Kings have their work cut out for them schedule-wise. Of the teams fighting to avoid the play-in round, only the seventh-place Suns have a tough schedule remaining. Sacramento's upcoming 10 games from March 26 to April 12 will feature All-NBA floor general Luka Doncic and the Mavs, Clippers, New York Knicks, Boston Celtics, Oklahoma City Thunder and New Orleans. -Includes two games against the Pelicans. Sands. – chris herring
Numbers to watch in the future: 22-20 vs. a winning team
The Lakers aren't the only team that might not want to watch the Kings play in the play-in. Sacramento trails only two Western postseason teams in the season series, the Clippers (1-2) and Pelicans (0-4).
The Kings are one of eight teams with a winning record against teams above .500, a feat that the Suns, Mavs, Lakers and Warriors cannot boast. In contrast, Sacramento is 16-7 (.696) against sub-.500 games in the league, far better than Dallas (21-5, .808) and Golden State (20-5, .800). bad for – Kevin Pelton
7. Phoenix Suns
2023-24 season results: 38-28
Remaining SOS: No.2
BPI odds for 6th seed: 27.7%
When Phoenix lost to the Mavericks on Christmas Day, dropping to 14-15, it looked like the team's big three – Devin Booker, Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal – would not be rewarded. At that point, the team was hit by injuries, with Beal and Jusuf Nurkic both sidelined.
Since then, Phoenix has turned their season around with a 24-12 record. Beal played in just six games before Christmas, but has been mostly healthy since then. With Durant and Booker playing at an All-NBA level, Phoenix hopes to have enough time to get out of the play-in tournament and get a much-needed five or six days off before the first round begins. There is.
Unfortunately for Phoenix, the Suns have the toughest remaining schedule in the West, with 11 of their remaining 17 games being played on the road. The final six games of the regular season could decide the fate of the postseason, with the Suns facing the favorites the Timberwolves, Pelicans, Clippers and Kings. – andrew lopez
Numbers to watch in the future: 45% 3-point shooting rate from starting five
If the Suns want to avoid the play-ins and make the playoffs, they'll do it with the strength of their shooting. Phoenix's 3-point shooting percentage overall is 38 percent, good for seventh in the league, which underestimates the danger posed by the Suns' starting pitching.
According to NBA Advanced Stats, of the three lineups that have made at least 44% or more on at least 100 3-pointers this season, two are from Phoenix, with starters making at least 45% (and at least 150 3-pointers). 44.5% if Eric Gordon was used in place of Beal. – Pelton
8. Dallas Mavericks
2023-24 season results: 38-29
Remaining SOS: No.17
BPI odds for 6th seed: 40.5%
Dallas has fielded 33 different starting lineups so far this season, dealing with injuries and uncertainty as they search for the best fit to complement co-superstars Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. .
Starting with the Irving trade, the Mavs have aggressively sought to upgrade Doncic's supporting cast over the past few trade cycles, giving up first-round picks in 2027 and 2029 and swap rights in 2028 and 2030. did.
Dallas is 5-0 with this season's deadline additions Daniel Gafford and P.J. Washington starting alongside Doncic and Irving. Dallas is 24-15 with both Doncic and Irving playing, a significant improvement from the duo's 5-11 record leading up to last season's lottery, but Doncic is currently suffering from left hamstring strain and will not play Thursday. night in Oklahoma City.
Two matchups against the Mavericks and Kings on March 26th and 29th could determine whether Dallas has a realistic hope of getting out of the play-in situation. Dallas needs to sweep this set to have a chance at the tiebreaker (a tournament record), as Sacramento has won the last two meetings between the two teams.
Good news? The Mavs won a tiebreaker against the Suns, the other team in a tight group between sixth and eighth in the standings. – Tim McMahon
Numbers to watch in the future: Ranked 28th in ERA since the All-Star break.
The Mavericks' offense has skyrocketed. The only teams with higher offensive ratings over the past month are the Celtics and Nuggets, two championship favorites. However, Dallas was only 6-5 in that span due to a bottom-three defense. The Mavericks have struggled with inconsistent 3-point shooting from their opponents, ranking 29th in the league in shooting percentage at 39 percent.
However, newly acquired Washington has been moved out of the wing-stopper role and has understandably struggled to contain the league's top scorer. If Dallas wants to make the playoffs, they need to strengthen their defense. – Pelton
9. Los Angeles Lakers
2023-24 season results: 36-31
Remaining SOS: No.21
BPI odds for 6th seed: 4.3%
Are the Lakers the same team that made it to the conference finals last spring and won the first in-season tournament in December? Are they a title-capable team that's just been hit by injuries? Or are they simply not good enough to be considered genuine candidates?
They may be on the upswing, going 12-6 since Feb. 1, but the Lakers' overall performance was middling at 17th in offensive efficiency and 18th in defensive efficiency.Last season's playoff appearance as a No. 7 seed and the potential return of key players Jared Vanderbilt, Gabe Vincent and Christian Wood mean LA can't be ruled out.
But there's a reason James compared this season's Lakers to Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde.
The ninth-place Lakers hold a one-game lead over the Warriors and will play two more times in the final month of the regular season after the teams split the first two meetings. Los Angeles still has a desire to win enough to avoid the play-in tournament altogether, but if that surge doesn't happen, they'll be playing against Golden State on Saturday and April 9 in Los Angeles. It is very likely that it will decide who will host the match. Single-elimination No. 9 vs. No. 10 play-in game. – Dave McMenamin
Numbers to watch in the future: Anthony Davis has a total of 0 wins and 10 losses against Sabonis.
The Lakers don't want a play-in matchup against the Kings, who won the regular season series 4-0 and Davis hasn't won in a head-to-head matchup with Sabonis. In Sabonis' rookie season in Oklahoma City in 2016-17, that record grew even more as Davis (then with the Pelicans) defeated Sabonis 117-20 for four wins.
For some reason, the two players never matched up between Davis joining the Lakers and Sabonis being traded to Sacramento. Since then, Davis has struggled in head-to-head games (44% shooting), even more so than Sabonis has inevitably overperformed. Davis will likely trump Sabonis in the end, but the Lakers don't want to take that chance now. – Pelton
10. Golden State Warriors
2023-24 season results: 34-31
Remaining SOS: No.14
BPI odds for 6th seed: 0.9%
Coming out of the All-Star break, the 10th-ranked Warriors were still aiming to earn a top-six seed in the Western Conference.
“We don't pay much attention to 7. [seed], numbers 8, 9, and 10. We're looking at No. 6 and No. 5,'' Warriors guard Brandin Podzemski said.
Stephen Curry agreed: “It's a lofty goal, but we can get there.”
Currently, with less than a month left in the regular season, the Warriors are still in 10th place, one game behind the ninth-place Lakers and four games behind sixth-place Sacramento. The right to participate in the tournament is almost guaranteed.
They should focus on moving up to the 7th or 8th seed. When healthy, the Warriors have proven they can compete against title contenders. Klay Thompson and Chris Paul have anchored the second unit, which has grown in depth with the rise of young players like Podzemski and Trayce Jackson-Davis. Jonathan Kuminga had a breakout season, scoring a career-high 16.1 points per game. The team is 15-8 since becoming the starter in December.
They still have major blunders, are unable to finish games — 18 wins and 20 losses in 38 games, second most in the league — and have struggled to compete with the top teams, with recent They are trailing by 52 points. Celtics.
Golden State has played 10 of its last 17 games on the road, which could be a blessing in disguise. The Warriors were 17-13 entering Chase Center, a significant improvement over last season's 11-30 road record, which was the fourth-worst in the NBA. Helping the Warriors is the 10th-easiest of the rest of the schedule in the league and the second-easiest of the West contenders currently in the play-in race. – kendra andrews
Numbers to watch in the future: Thompson averaged 19.7 points per game as a reserve.
Curry has missed the past three games with an ankle sprain, resulting in two losses, and Thompson has briefly returned to the starting five. But first, having the future Hall of Famer off the bench worked for the Warriors. Thompson averaged more points in 26.3 minutes per game as a reserve than he did at 30.2 MPG (16.6 MPG) as a starter.
Thompson shot 44 percent from three as a reserve, up from 37 percent as a starter. And by playing Thompson as a reserve, Golden State was able to feature him at a higher usage rate (27%, up from 23% as a starter). – Pelton
