European governments are struggling to adapt to a new political reality in France, where presidential powers are shrinking and parliament is more preoccupied with domestic issues than the bold pro-EU policies that were once Emmanuel Macron's specialty.
Sunday's early vote plunged the euro zone's second-largest economy into political chaos, with President Macron facing a suspended parliament and possibly “coexistence” with a prime minister from a rival party.
“He's no longer in the boxing ring,” said former Italian Prime Minister Enrico Letta.
The outcome could have been even worse for Macron, who would not have to share power with the far-right Rally National party of eurosceptic Marine Le Pen, which came third.
But without a German-style grand coalition, Macron would still face a shaky political environment with a string of short-lived governments unlikely to rely on him — a situation that could severely limit his ability to launch the kind of comprehensive approach to Europe that has long been his specialty.
EU diplomats said this could hinder progress in Brussels on issues spanning “migration, agriculture, tech, the internal market, capital markets union, banking union and transport”.
More than any other post-war French leader, Macron has enthralled and frustrated many in Europe with his bold interventions on the EU stage.
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He twice used the Sorbonne's imposing amphitheatre to outline his vision of a more positive, “sovereign” Europe, maneuvered the centres of power in Brussels to install political allies in the top jobs, and spent billions to restart the oft-stalled Franco-German engine at the heart of the European project.
Macron's approach has drawn public ire, especially in Berlin, and successive governments have resisted proposals for joint borrowing or increased EU spending.
But the alternative – a weakened French president – is becoming more unpalatable, especially in Macron-skeptics' home country of Germany.
“Of course we are worried about political instability,” one German official said, adding that the issue was the risk of conflict between a spending-heavy government in Paris and the European Commission, which has already launched legal proceedings over France's breach of EU fiscal rules on excessive deficits.
The new government must make billions of euros of savings in its October budget to comply with EU borrowing rules, a tough task for any party but particularly one elected on a promise to reverse Macron's pension reforms and raise the minimum wage and civil servant salaries.
“We don't even know if we will have a fully functioning government by October,” the official said.
Shahin Valais, a former adviser to Macron and now a senior fellow at the German Council on Foreign Relations, said that in the autumn France “will have to choose between a domestic and a European side on the crisis.”
Many in Germany are worried about parts of the left-wing coalition that won Sunday's election, particularly Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of Stand By France, who has a history of anti-German rhetoric.
Mélenchon “supports Vladimir Putin, incites Israel and defends Hamas terrorists.” [and] “The French president hates Germany,” tabloid Bild Zeitung wrote on Tuesday. “The winner of the French elections may not be right-wing, but he is still a radical demagogue.”
Experts in Berlin point to his 2016 book, “Bismarck's Herring: Germany's Poison,” in which he is a fierce critic of former Chancellor Angela Merkel's free-market economic policies.
Nils Schmidt, foreign policy spokesman for Germany's ruling Social Democrats, stressed that France's lower house still has a majority of pro-European supporters who support NATO and military support for Ukraine in its war against Russia.
But he warned that the country is currently facing “periods of uncertainty” that could limit “the government's ability to act” and President Macron's “ability to launch new initiatives”.
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“For the time being, France will struggle to play an active role in international organizations,” said Johan Wadeffel, defense spokesman for the opposition Christian Democrats. “The world will expect more leadership from France.” [Chancellor] Olaf Scholz will never be able to live up to those expectations.”
In France, experts have downplayed the importance of Mr. Melenchon's party, which was outnumbered by the Greens and Socialists in the victorious left-wing coalition, but a left-wing government could limit the amount of aid Mr. Macron can provide to Ukraine.
“He may have to hold back on sending in Mirage 2000 fighter jets,” said veteran diplomat Michel Duclos. “If the committee asks for new funding, will the left-wing government respond? Tensions could arise.”
Suggestions that the French election results could damage Franco-German relations have caused deep concern in Berlin.
The duo played a key role in spearheading the biggest reforms in EU history, including the creation of the euro, the Lisbon Treaty that expanded EU powers well beyond the economic sphere, and 800 billion euros of joint borrowing for the post-pandemic recovery.
The two countries have been at odds in recent years, in part because Chancellor Olaf Scholz has had his hands full trying to maintain an unwieldy three-party coalition government made up of the Social Democrats, Greens and Freedom parties.
But there has been a recent resurgence of cooperation in many areas, and the two countries agree on the need for the EU to step up in defence and move towards capital markets integration, an effort to consolidate the EU's fragmented banking sector.
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They also criticized Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who responded to the gains of far-right parties in June's European Parliament elections by forming a senior leadership team for EU institutions and traveled to Moscow last week to meet with President Vladimir Putin.
Still, the balance of power within the European Council, the EU's political body attended by national leaders, is likely to shift.
“Strength will depend on whether you have political support,” said Laurence Boone, a former EU minister under Macron. “If France and Germany propose reforms or new laws, other countries may want to push back and say, 'Let's talk first.'”
Former Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi said there was a risk Europe would adopt a more minimalist policy approach, jeopardizing his plans for capital markets integration that he put forward with Paris' backing in April, as well as talks on eurobonds to fund defence projects.
“If the French engine stops, everything stops,” Letta said. “Nothing happens in Europe by inertia.” – Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2024
