Nearly every year, a core of precocious young players emerges from the summer with enough talent and experience to defy relatively modest expectations. In 2022, that team was the Memphis Grizzlies, a 56-win team with a preseason over/under of 41.5. Last year, it was the Oklahoma City Thunder, a 57-win team with a preseason over/under of 44.5.
These organizations hit the jackpot in the draft (multiple times), developed home-grown prospects faster than anyone thought possible, and embraced discipline. Everyone was in lockstep. Front offices that chose to turn the page and start from scratch didn't cut corners. They thrived in the present by prioritizing the future. Patience was their virtue.
This year, the Orlando Magic are the perfect candidates to fill that void. Coming off a home-run offseason that saw them win an impressive 47-win regular season, a competitive playoff appearance and a masterful awareness of their own potential and limitations, this team already has winning habits, a demanding style that meshes with its roster and the blossoming building blocks that make sense together. But seven teams in the conference currently have better odds to win it.
The main reason for optimism is Paolo Banchero. A 6-foot-10, 250-pound brute who could take a big leap in Year 3 to become one of the 15 best players in the league, Banchero averaged 22.6 points, 6.9 rebounds and 5.4 assists in his second season with great handles and touch. Cynics would call him empty calories, a player whose team continues to lose points when he's on the court. Optimists hear the sirens that sound as the tsunami hits land. In short, the 2023 Rookie of the Year frequently creates problems that opponents have a hard time solving.
Orlando's faith in short-term upside is a bet on Banchero's ability to become a more efficient, compliant, high-usage first choice and lead a roster that can increasingly highlight his elite skill set. It's a bet worth making. His sophomore season was full of big strides, marked by his first All-Star appearance, his first playoff series (27 points per game, 40% 3-point shooting) and meaningful maturity both defensively and defensively.
Next to him is Franz Wagner, another 6'10″ forward with a unique combination of size, toughness and agility that has given him pick-and-roll prowess and excellent technique for attacking the rim. Few players his size can move their bodies off a live dribble like Wagner can.
Orlando's recent decision to give him a contract extension worth up to $224 million may seem overzealous, especially to those with a bias toward recent trends — Wagner shot just 28.1 percent from the 3-point line last season and made just 1 of 15 field goals in his first Game 7 — but it's more likely an innocuous move (and confidence booster) for a potential All-Star coming off perhaps the worst shooting season (and playoff series) of his life. Wagner is a great player, and he'll just turn 23 in August.
Then there's All-Defensive Team stalwart Jalen Suggs, whose 3-point shooting has improved after two disappointing seasons. Now eligible for a contract extension, Suggs, 23, showed in his third season how good he can be when healthy, and the impact has changed the trajectory of his career and the team's. Cole Anthony (a 24-year-old spark off the bench) and Wendell Carter Jr. (a tenacious 25-year-old rebounder who shot 40.4% of his non-corner 3-pointers last year) are former draft picks who thrive in situations that benefit the entire team. There's Anthony Black, Jett Howard and next-gen first-rounder Tristan da Silva (a smart, big-bodied four-year college star who shoots really well). (Orlando's roster includes nine draft picks, the same as San Antonio in the league.)
The environment is good, but when you're coming into an offseason with maximum cap space and time constraints related to player salaries, building that foundation without the roof collapsing is easier said than done.
But the Magic were cautious. There was no need to step on the gas and acquire a star player. Whether it was signing Paul George or trading for someone like Trae Young, Orlando believed that acquiring a big-name player at this point could disrupt a delicately cultivated ecosystem and a carefully constructed hierarchy. “As a step forward, we need to show our young players how they do it moving forward,” Magic president of basketball operations Jeff Weltman said. “We're not going to stray from our goal of developing young talent.”
Instead, the Magic wanted a reliable role player who could add a bit of 3-point shooting to their dry offense and bolster their already formidable defense. (Orlando was third in defensive rating last year, including first after the All-Star break and second against top-10 offenses.) Whether leading by example or speaking up, the veteran could impart winning experience and positively impact a roster ready to move forward without knowing all it takes to get ahead. If their dream came true, that theoretical player would be Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, whom the Magic wisely signed to a three-year, $66 million contract.
KCP comes in like a breeze when the boat starts to rock. He does the dirty work. He makes big shots. He's only 31, doesn't need the ball, rarely misses a game and finished last season with the highest true shooting percentage of his career. 82 players have attempted at least 1,500 3-pointers since 2020. Of those, Caldwell-Pope is one of seven to shoot over 40%.
“To me, KCP is a basketball player's basketball player,” Weltman said. “He doesn't have the most sexy stats. He's not a big scorer. But he guards the other team's best player 97 percent of the time. For us guys, that's what gets us excited.”
With two championships under his belt with two teams in the past five years and an average of 76 games per season for his career, KCP's credibility is invaluable to an organization that was already happy with everything else. And his decision to choose Orlando is a testament to where the franchise is now. Money talks, but it couldn't have been easy to leave Nikola Jokic and say goodbye to a powerhouse team that embodies basketball bliss. “It took me a while to think about it,” he says. “There was no point in waiting to see if they'd come back with an offer or if they'd give me any offer.”
Caldwell-Pope understands better than anyone a truism that's becoming widespread in the NBA: Continuity is fleeting. Teams that can leverage it on their way up the mountain usually reap big benefits. The Magic understand that. Cohesion is one of their great strengths.last This year, they carried over 87% of their playing time from last season, sixth-most in the league, and instead of using their remaining cap space to sign more expensive free agents and force head coach Jamal Mosley to rework the rotation, the team decided to bring back the majority of its own players (Markelle Fultz is an outlier due to his inability to spread the floor).
Orlando's most attractive signing of the summer was that of Jonathan Isaac, arguably the best defender in the NBA. Isaac became the 12th player since 2006 to have his contract renegotiated and extended, signing a highly team-friendly five-year, $84 million deal with annual cuts and no guarantees in the second half. Isaac has battled serious injuries for much of his career, but last year he finally became a somewhat reliable contributor, finishing first (and I mean first) in estimated defensive plus-minus after the All-Star break with a true shooting percentage of 68.3%.
“We've always had confidence in Jonathan and he was able to prove himself last year,” Weltman said. “We're hoping that's just the beginning. These new contracts are going to be restrictive for everybody. Reworking some of the existing contracts and being ready to go up against that was part of what we were hoping to accomplish this summer.”
Moe Wagner, Gary Harris and Goga Bitadze also re-signed to short-term deals at reasonable amounts. All three have important, but small, roles they are willing to accept. Looking at the bigger picture, Orlando has depth, chemistry, personality on the court, young players willing to sacrifice, internal growth at nearly every position and a franchise player on the ladder to superstardom. If health permits, 50+ wins are within reach.
Last week, after examining all the offseason moves so far, I called Orlando the biggest threat to the Celtics in the East. They don't have the stars of the Philadelphia 76ers, New York Knicks, or Milwaukee Bucks, but if they play big lineups that rebound, protect the rim, avoid screens, force a ton of turnovers, and fight for every square inch like Orlando does, they could be the No. 1, No. 2, or No. 3 seed. They have elite on-ball defenders, elite help defenders, speed, length, and pride.
“Defense is how we win games. It's also how we win championships. The more we focus on defense, the better everything else is going to be,” Caldwell-Pope said. “Your offensive game is going to be better. Shots are going to start making. When you focus on defense, the game flows a lot better and everything else is going to run a lot smoother.”
Imagine a final lineup of Suggs, Isaac, Caldwell-Pope, Banchero and Wagner. Or 6'8″ Silva in place of Suggs. Or Carter in place of Isaac. If the Celtics have an offense with plenty of 3-point threats to create mismatches all over the court, what weaknesses are worth targeting? There are great defenses in the NBA right now. Boston, Minnesota and Oklahoma City can all claim to be the best defenses. But after the next 82 games, Orlando might be on its own.
Reasons to doubt the Magic's true breakout come on the other end. Spacing is a legitimate concern for a team that just finished 22nd in offensive rating and last in the league in both 3-point volume and accuracy. And as of this writing, they still don't have a traditional table-setter who can take on some of Banchero and Wagner's ball-handling responsibilities and give them more breathing room (Tyus Jones would be a perfect fit, literally, though he's probably out of their budget). Last year, when these two franchise pillars shared the court, Orlando's offensive rating was an abysmal 109.4.
Some of that congestion is Wagner's fault, but all hope is not lost. Given the large sample sizes of his rookie and sophomore seasons, it's fair to view Wagner's drop in 3-point shooting percentage as an anomaly rather than the norm. Adding KCP to the starting lineup should also open up driving lanes and create more scoring opportunities for Banchero, especially as a dribble handoff partner and spot-up threat off post-ups and isolation plays. Having Trailer, who can knock down 3-pointers in transition, helps, too.
What's notable about Orlando is that despite their lack of spacing, they ranked first in rim shot frequency (overall and in half-court situations) and fourth in free throw percentage last season. These stats speak to the team's sheer power, aggressiveness and willingness to attack the paint hard. Wagner made more baskets driving to the rim last year than LeBron James, Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum. Banchero is a dump truck that demands double teams.
With such a cohesive, athletic, and well-coordinated team, they could own all of their draft picks and be at least league average offensively if they have the opportunity to upgrade before the trade deadline. The Magic are built to be championship contenders in a few years, but they could also be a top-three seed. this This team may need a seismograph analysis, as Oklahoma City and Memphis did, to begin the season. Armed with the immense advantages of familiarity, budding talent, smart coaching and a savvy front office, they're ready to crash a party they never knew they were going to be at, ahead of schedule.
