Starting 2023 with a 7-0 record and 2 ties, Northwestern looked like they had a great chance to make the NCAA Tournament for the second straight year. Unfortunately, conference play proved too tough for the Cats, who started Big Ten play with a 1-4 record and 1 tether. Though the team bounced back a bit to close out the season, the Wildcats clearly felt the rigors of the Big Ten. This year, it will be even tougher with the addition of teams like UCLA and USC. However, the Wildcats still have a favorable enough schedule to finish with a winning record for the third straight year. Here are some things to note:
The non-conference schedule is very manageable
Last year, Northwestern had an astounding record against non-Big Ten teams, going 6-0, losing and with 2 ties. None of the eight teams the Wildcats faced made the postseason, with Marquette, Kansas State, Oakland, Toledo, Weber State and Virginia Tech all finishing with losing records. Marquette, Toledo and Virginia Tech (who lost to Northwestern 10-3 combined) are all returning to the 2024 schedule. Of the newly scheduled teams, Virginia, Syracuse, Illinois State and Harvard, only Harvard made the NCAA Tournament last season. Maintaining an unbeaten record against non-conference rivals this season will be a tall order, but the Wildcats should be comfortable winning more than 50% of their Big Ten games.
The conference is scheduled…
Northwestern will play 11 conference games before the Big Ten Tournament, seven of which will be against teams that qualified for the NCAA Tournament in 2023. Between Sept. 29 and Oct. 20, the Wildcats will face a tough field as five of their six opponents (Iowa, UCLA, USC, Michigan and Michigan State) recently qualified for the postseason.
In 2022, Northwestern advanced to the NCAA Tournament thanks to a dominant 7-2-1 record in the Big Ten Conference. 2022 marked the team's first conference win since 2017, which was also the last year Northwestern made the NCAA Tournament. Simply put, Northwestern must perform well in the Big Ten Conference to continue their pursuit of postseason success.
A third consecutive winning season remains a possibility
While it may seem daunting considering the number of teams on the schedule with recent playoff experience (8 total), the Wildcats should be able to win some of those games. Let's look back at last year. Northwestern beat Iowa in a three-day span and drew with Penn State, which has a combined four wins in the NCAA Tournament. The Wildcats also held Nebraska to an 85th-minute goal and nearly pulled off second-half comebacks against both Indiana and Wisconsin. Add in the return of Minnesota and Illinois to the schedule, both of which didn't score against Northwestern last year, and four or five conference wins becomes a realistic outcome. Assuming Northwestern can enter Big Ten Conference play with a record closer to 5-1-2, the Wildcats should be able to comfortably maintain a winning percentage above .500 again. Last year, their defense was seventh in the conference, allowing just 20 points. If that number improves to a top-five, the Wildcats may have a shot at making the postseason.
