Please take a look UFC Props UFC 303 Favorites Long Shot Pick Saturday, June 29th.
UFC 303 will take place at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, with the entire preliminaries card on ESPN (6pm ET), followed by the pay-per-view main card at 10pm ET on ESPN+ PPV (cost: $79.99).
Each episode of MMA Prop Squad features several bets selected by our team of prop betting enthusiasts, who have earned +18.3 units per bet and an ROI of +4.5% over their two-year run.
As with any form of gambling, always bet within your ability. This guideline is especially important when dealing with prop bets. Props often offer attractive odds, but they are converted into cash much less frequently than standard bets. Also, prop odds can vary significantly from sportsbook to sportsbook, so be sure to shop around for the best price.
Odds for the UFC 303 fight are available on FanDuel as of Saturday night. Bet on UFC using FanDuel promo codes.
UFC 303 Props – MMA Prop Squad Picks
Billy Ward: A Fight with a Tested Chin
Action Network Staff Writer
Fighter jets exit: Approximately 8:55 p.m. ET
I went into this fight intending to find a way to bet on Andre Fili (-220), as Cub Swanson (+184) is over 40 years old and in the featherweight division, which typically favors young fighters.
Then I started watching videos, especially of Fili, who himself is not young at 34. Fili has been knocked out four times in his career, all at UFC, with two of those knockouts coming in the last 26 months. He was also knocked out by Nathaniel Wood in that same span, but Wood only had one other knockdown in 10 UFC fights.
This matchup features two dynamic strikers with a relatively lax stance on defense and little interest in grappling, so there's a strong chance this fight will come down to a battle of the chin at some point.
Despite his age and experience, Swanson has only been knocked out three times in his career, two of which were quite recently, via kicks to the legs and body. In our full preview of the Swanson vs. Fili bout, we detailed why Swanson is particularly vulnerable to kicks to the legs, and pointed out that Fili doesn't use leg kicks much.
Plus, power is often the last thing to go, and Swanson has six knockouts in his UFC career, so power is always there in abundance. This fight is a great opportunity for Swanson to get another knockout at odds of over 5-1.
Pick: Cub Swanson to win by KO/TKO/DQ (+550 with bet365)
John Lanfranca: Unfavorable matchup for Paige's second attempt
Action Network Contributor
Fighter jets exit: Approximately 10:05 p.m. ET
Michael “Venom” Page (+138) had a great UFC debut against Kevin Holland, giving bettors a great opportunity to capitalize on a much more difficult matchup for MVP. Holland doesn't have the speed or power of Ian Machado Garry (-164) and was never able to solve the enigma that is Page.
Page's karate style is effective, but it's been a while since we've been inside the cage against a fighter as fast and polished as Garry. Page keeps his hands low and jumps in and out of range, which could be devastating if he gets caught.
I'd be willing to bet that a young, developing striker could catch up with the 37-year-old within 15 minutes.
Garry has out-hit opponents in the key striking department in six straight bouts and expects to make it seven on Saturday night.
Oddly enough, Garry's poor strike defense makes this bet more likely to succeed. If Page feels he can beat Garry, he may land more strikes than he did in his UFC debut.
If a technical brawl breaks out, I again have more faith that Garry will come up with something that could catch Page and end the match.
Additionally, the prop is getting a significant boost on FanDuel as of this writing, as it is +350 on BetMGM and +400 on DraftKings.
Pick: Ian Machado Garry wins by KO/TKO (+460 on FanDuel)
Clint McLean: Garry on the Ground
He is a contributor to The Action Network and host of the Die Hard MMA Podcast.
Fighter jets exit: Approximately 10:05 p.m. ET
Ian Machado Garry is so underrated, everyone wants to hate on the kid but he does everything right.
Now, the UFC is giving him a golden opportunity to steal the spotlight from longtime Bellator fighter Michael Page, who recently made his UFC debut.
What you can expect from Garry is a high IQ and taking the path of least resistance, which is what he will do against Page at UFC 303, bringing his grappling and fighting to the mat.
Garry has been honing his MMA skills and has been training with Charles Oliveira in preparation for this fight. The kid is an underrated grappler and I've tried to attack his submission props before. It's unlikely so don't get carried away. But there is a very good chance Garry could take down a dangerous striker like Paige and find an opening.
Pick: Ian Machado-Garry (Submission) (+1000 on DraftKings)
Dan Tom: “Lionheart” finishes late
He is a contributor to The Action Network and host of the Protect Ya' Neck podcast.
Fighter jets exit: Approximately 10:55 p.m. ET
For this week’s MMA Prop Squad post, I decided to target the main card bout between Anthony Smith (+114) and Roman Dolidze (-146).
Not only is Smith an incredible live underdog as a more proven product, but “Lionheart” is used to finding success in bouts on short notice.
Dolidze is the flashier fighter and perhaps less experienced, but the Georgian powerhouse's wins haven't necessarily been the most repeatable (nor has his process been the most reliable).
Add in the fact that Dolidze will be coming into this fight having moved up a weight class with a significant trip under his belt, and I think he’s in for a long night if he can’t hurt Smith early on.
I’m already hitting moneyline coverage on Smith, but I see the American as a possible candidate to be the first to officially beat Dolidze, taking into account the intangibles.
In a recent bout, we saw Dolidze get finished off by Nassoordin Imavov with a combination in clinch space that was very similar to Smith's past finishing streak.
Therefore, I expect Smith to win the third round, given that the former title challenger will likely break Dolidze down with his jabs from long range early and often.
Pick: Anthony Smith in the third round (+1300 on FanDuel).
Tony SartoriDon't miss Ortega's submission game
Action Network Contributor
Fighter jets exit: Approximately 11:25 p.m. ET
The co-main event of Saturday's UFC 303 will feature a featherweight bout between No. 3 UFC-ranked Brian Ortega (+123) and No. 14 Diego Lopez (-152). This bout is being played on pure principle: No matter who his opponent is, Ortega shouldn't be a +650 submission prop against a single 145-pound fighter at the UFC.
I'm a big fan of Lopez and what he's done, and he's been fairly priced as a betting favorite, but at some point you have to determine if the hype was justified.
We'll know on Saturday, and Ortega remains one of the best featherweights in the world (even though he plans to move up to lightweight for and after this fight).
While I think highly of Lopez and his potential, I think the hype should be held back until he wins against a fighter of Ortega's caliber. Lopez missed his first two chances at the UFC, coming against Gavin Tucker (3-3-0 in his last six fights), Pat Sabatini (1-2-0 in his last three fights) and Sodiq Yusuf (2-3-0 in his last five fights).
Lopez is likely to win the stand-up battle, but he's not likely to knock Ortega out. Ortega's two TKO losses were the result of a freak accident involving medical intervention and a dislocated shoulder, and Lopez isn't going to use the same kind of violence that led to Max Holloway needing medical intervention.
You also can't take Ortega to a submission, which means you're more likely to see 15 minutes of action, and I can't imagine a world in which you can't justify taking Ortega to a submission at +650 for 15 minutes against a less-proven (but still developing) fighter.
Pick: Brian Ortega wins by submission (+650 on Betfred & Hard Rock)
Brian Fonseca: Pereira's defensive performance will worsen
Action Network contributor, martial arts presenter and on-air talent
Fighter jets exit: Approximately 11:55 p.m. ET
UFC light heavyweight champion Alex Pereira is everyone's favorite fighter and a fearsome striker who is the natural favorite in this bout, but his game is plagued by constant defensive errors that only Israel Adesanya has been able to exploit to inflict damage.
Pereira exploits weaknesses on both offense and defense. Instead, he overpowers his opponents. He literally beats them.
But if he faces an opponent who can stand in the pocket or, even better, defend and counter, get in and out of range effectively or have the finishing ability, he can be stopped again.
Pereira (-148) stopped Prochazka (+126) at UFC 295, but there are a few things to note from the two rounds prior to the stoppage.
Leg kicks did the damage for Prochazka, he was also looking to land an overhand right and then a counter left hook before finally landing his big move with 2:58 left in the second round. Prochazka rocked him again 10 seconds later, really hurting the light heavyweight champion against the cage and forcing Pereira to back off.
Prochazka is an equally fearsome striker in terms of power, so you should always at least keep an eye on the underdog as this could be a tough fight with the stands at the center.
He was winning the second round but was caught out, so I think it’s worth adding a few long shots to finish the saga so to speak, and I’d even consider betting on him to win in straight sets on the moneyline.
I’m going to split my bets this week and bet on Prochazka by 1st round KO (+700) and 2nd round KO (+950).
Pick: Jiri Prochazka via 1st round KO (+700 on FanDuel) | Prochazka wins by KO in the second round (+950 on FanDuel)
