Without further ado, Hockey Wilderness is projecting all seven rounds of the Minnesota Wild draft. Barring a trade (which won't happen), the Wild have 1st, 2nd, 4th, 5th and 6th round picks, plus an additional 5th round pick in the trade for Jordan Greenway.
So who should the Wild select? Using Bob McKenzie's rankings, we'll simulate all 7 rounds with Draft Prospect Hockey, with a randomness factor of 7/10 and a team needs factor of 6/10. We'll make the picks on behalf of the Wild brain trust.
Round 1, No. 13
situation: We are immediately faced with a very tough decision: two surprises in the top 12 picks of the draft (Beckett Senneke taken fifth overall by the Montreal Canadiens and Cole Yzerman taken 12th overall by the Philadelphia Flyers) have created two prime options at very different positions.
With Barkley Catton and Carter Jakemchuk on the list, you have the choice between a top centre or a top defenceman prospect, both of whom have the skill and put up historic numbers in the WHL last year, making them worthy of being selected at No. 13. So which should you go for?
Selected Player: Barkley Catton, C, WHL (Spokane Chiefs)
It's a very close call, and one that will be heavily scrutinized for the next decade or more, but Catton has the edge here. Why? Part of it is that Jakemchuk's weaknesses (a passable defensive skater) are more visible than Catton's (at 5'10″ and undersized). But the bigger reason is the team-building philosophy, something Minnesota, in particular, needs right now.
The Wild have been without speed at forward since Kevin Fiala left the team. Minnesota acquired a No. 1 defenseman in Brock Faber and was a total winner with that trade from their perspective. Still, they haven't gotten Fiala's magic back into the lineup. Their biggest weakness since then has not been defense, but secondary scoring. Catton is one of the fastest players in the draft. He's phenomenal in transition and can flash playmaking ability at high speeds.
The Stanley Cup-winning Florida Panthers had the ability to lock down defense, but they also had a surprising number of talented forwards. Their blue line had one standout player in Aaron Ekblad, and the rest of the team was built around him. The decision here is to follow the Florida model, assume Favre is our No. 1 defenseman, and trust ourselves to build our blue line around him.
Round 2, No. 45
situation: The hope was to get Catton in the first round and a physical defenseman in the second, but their most attractive options were eliminated when Dominik Badinka (26th), Charlie Eric (30th), EJ Emery (34th) and Jesse Pulkkinen (38th) all went unselected. The top two forwards were Russian power forward Matvey Gridin (37th according to MacKenzie), who played in the USHL last season, and smart, competitive but undersized winger Teddy Stiga (43rd).
Styga would have been comfortable if they had selected Jakemchuk in the first round, but Catton is better than Styga in almost every respect. Defense isn't as high a priority as forwards, but I still want to bring up Minnesota's blue line depth here.
Selected players: Aron Kiviharju, LD, Liiga (HIFK)
To quote Judd Brackett, look at the board and Who fell further than expected? The answer is Kibiharju, who has been struggling with a knee injury and has flown under the radar and forgotten about by scouts this year.
Entering the season, the left-handed defenseman was projected to be a potential first-round draft pick, possibly quite highly. Elite Prospects The draft guide wrote about his illustrious career: “He put up historic numbers in the Finnish junior league and was already Finland's best blueliner as a double-under in his first season. [U18 World Junior Championships] Now in 2022, Kiviharju has a special pedigree.”
Even as late as 2023, scouts still thought Kiviharju was a good prospect. Corey Pronman, who ranked him 19th, wrote:He moves the puck extremely well, sees the ice on a unique level and is always looking to make plays with his head up.“Smart Scouting ranked him 21st in 2023 and projected that 'If Kiviharju moves out of the No. 1 spot, he could be one of the biggest steals in recent draft history.' We're rolling the dice on them.
Round 4, 110th
Selected player: Timur Kol, LD, MHL (SKA St. Petersburg)
At this point in the draft, it's less about playing the board and more about finding a player we like. Coll comes to us with solid value (No. 94 in Mackenzie's rankings) and is a very promising defenseman. Coll was born about three weeks before the 2024 draft deadline, so he won't even turn 18 until late August.
The 6-foot-3 defenseman has already played a game in the MHL (two goals and eight points in 14 games) and two games in the KHL. McKeans Hockey named him a sleeper, stating, “Col is an intelligent two-way defender who combines offensive ability with a physical presence. He plays a reliable safety that the coaching staff will love.” It may take some time (whether for developmental reasons or KHL politics), but the Wild organization has a big, mobile, physical defenseman.
Round 5, 140th
Selected Player: Tomas Mrcic, C/W, WHL (Medicine Hat Tigers)
We're still in “attack the guy” mode, but Mrsic is worth attacking because he can shoot the ball well. This season, he has 23 goals and 63 points in 62 WHL games, which is respectable, but there's still potential for more. “Pure talent-wise, he's a top-20 draft pick,” Mrsic says. Elite Prospectsrated him as the fifth-best shooter in the draft and noted that “his skating isn't that bad either.”
But his shot is also impressive. “Some of the best shots this draft cycle have come from Mrcic,” EP raves. “He shoots from difficult positions, in stride and off the catch. Every release is deceptive.” Mrcic hasn't put it all together yet, but it doesn't seem to be for a lack of trying. He may simply not realize how talented he is. “He has a tendency to defer to his linemates,” FC Hockey notes.[and] Frequently misses shooting opportunities.”
But in the fifth round, you bet on talent.
Round 5, 142nd place
Selected Player: Anthony Romani, C, OHL (North Bay Battalion)
It wouldn't be a Wild draft unless they acquired an overage player, and with the 142nd pick they took the last remaining player off McKenzie's board (90th), Romani. The 6'0″ right-handed centre went undrafted in 2023 but then played a revenge tour with North Bay, scoring 58 goals and 111 points after scoring just 23 goals and 43 points in his first draft-eligible season.
Scott Wheeler ranked Romani as the No. 1 overage player in the draft: “He has a chance to make it in the NHL,” Wheeler wrote.[Romani] He has a great sense of timing and spacing out his coverage. He attacks to the home base area, but has also shown some mid-range play this year.
Romani feels like an excellent candidate to become a Cayden Bankier type prospect, which is a decent showing for a fifth-round pick.
Round 6, 174th
Selected players: Markus Gidloff, G, Sweden J20 Nationwide (Leksands IF)
My attention was on Mac Swanson, the 5'7″ forward who dominated the USHL with 26 goals and 77 points in 55 games for the Fargo Force. Unfortunately, the Dallas Stars took him at No. 160. Swanson was last on the list of names to watch in the draft. So our focus turned to who is the best goaltender currently available.
So we're going the opposite direction from Swanson and going with Guidrov, who is 6'6″ and can stop goals. Goaltending prospects are a bit of an inexact science. Still, betting on a goalie in the later rounds is never a bad idea.
Gidloff has posted a .923 save percentage in 26 games as a Swedish junior, but his momentum may just be getting started. McKeens Derek Neumeier likes Guidloff as an under-the-radar goalkeeping option: “Not only does he have a natural way of covering the goal wide, he's also strong enough to move around the area with ease and respond to play in front of the goal.”
According to Hockey Prospecting, he has a 53% chance of becoming an NHL player, which is plenty good enough for us.
Immediate response:
We have a fortuitous starting lineup here with Catton, Mrsic, and Romani at forward, Kiviharju and Coll on the left and right sides of the defense, and Gidlov in goal. This feels pretty balanced in terms of skill set, with Catton providing the playmaking and Mrsic and Romani providing the shooting. Kiviharju is the puck mover, and Coll should be a solid home defenseman, though he could use more.
Again, we came out solid here according to the Hockey Prospecting projection model. Catton is by far the most likely player (59% chance of being a star, 68% chance of being an NHLer), but no player had a lower than 13% chance of being a star. Our five skaters “should” produce 1.26 stars and 2.66 NHLers, which I think is a good outcome for where we draft. Combined with the possibility that Kiviharju could be a top prospect again after recovering from a knee injury, this looks like a very good scenario for this weekend.
