Let's continue with my first look at fantasy football ADPs. The focus of this column is the current average price of the player selected 100th in the NFFC draft over the past week (100+ drafts), for the most part, players I like.
But remember, it's the price that I like, not necessarily the player. Make sure you can get these players near or below their ADP (remember, they're available about half the time later). Since you're picking near the beginning or end of the rounds in a snake draft, it's fine if you can get them a little above their ADP. But no matter how strong you think my argument is, taking them will reduce your expected return. My philosophy in the draft is to exercise restraint and not overpay just because you have a large supply.
Unless there's some big news out of training camp, I don't see these prices changing drastically. There are five wide receivers and four running backs, but two are paired on the same team and should be drafted together if possible. There is one QB situation where the prices just don't explain it, at least to me. If you disagree, let me know in the comments.
Let’s start with the number one reason to pass on a running back at the top of the draft. As a shocking testament to your total lack of foresight to imagine tomorrow’s headlines, fantasy football is here to tell you: Zack Moss (ADP 105) and Chase Brown (116) Rounds 9-10. Compare that to the prices of the Dolphins and Lions backfields. It's pretty clear that one of them will likely win the league as the primary runner for one of the best offensive lines in football. The other one will probably be fine too. Moss will likely be a 1st and 2nd down runner and goal line back, and Brown will likely be a receiver specialist. But who knows? Moss recorded roughly the same yards/carry as Jonathan Taylor last year and wasn't a bad receiver either. Brown looked better than Joe Mixon when given the chance, but that's over-praising him. The great thing is you don't have to choose one. Get them both.
Rookie WR Brian Thomas On average, he's the 108th pick. He seems to have a chance to be the best rookie wide receiver in 2024. Marvin Harrison Jr. is hamstrung by a worse QB in Kyler Murray. Trevor Lawrence is far from perfect, but he's about a half yard better than Murray in YPA over the past two years. He's also the right size for Murray not being able to see over the linemen. He was 46th out of 48 in EPA on passes between the hashes. Murray is a very marginal player. Lawrence has disappointed, but he's not limited. Thomas has about a 40% chance of being drafted over Malik Neighbors, but Thomas is 5 rounds cheaper. Not a pick, not even a WR slot. Rounds! Neighbors has Daniel Jones. These ADPs are inexplicable.
Bills rookie Keon ColemanThe 120th pick is even more valuable than Thomas. Sure, draft position is like fate. I'm not going to argue with you. But the clear path to pair with Josh Allen and lead the team in targets is very appealing, and these are the odds for 10th to 11th round. I know Coleman fell in draft season because he was slow, but the Underwear Olympics test doesn't correlate with NFL WR success. Why not bet on a prospect and a QB when the market seems to ignore both?
Zach Charbonnet He's one of two running backs I really like in Round 11. You can grab him around the 126th pick. Kendre Miller On average, they will be picked 130th overall. I know they are not expected to be starters, but I don't think Kenneth Walker is a good player. Plus, he gets hurt a lot. Walker certainly didn't play better than Charbonnet. Miller's matchup is Alvin Kamara, but Kamara is probably on the last stretch and will probably be capped at around 200 carries even if he stays healthy and performs well. The reason Miller is so cheap is because he has too many paths to fantasy importance. If you drafted one or two running backs by the 8th round, getting the Bengals back and one of Charbonnet and Miller is the perfect way to round out your backfield.
On a team without a top-half QB or a solid No. 1 target, a first-round draft pick with an active WR who breaks out in his second year is appealing, even if the price is high. Quentin Johnstonwho was heavily overdrafted last year, is essentially free (ADP 141). I'm not going to declare anything or claim to have seen anything or anything. This is pure second year draft capital in the discount bin. I would sign this up 100 times out of 100.
Our next pick is a different wide receiver, but let's do a thought experiment. Imagine you were a neighbor of an NFL head coach, and when you were looking to borrow some hedge trimmers, the head coach told you that a receiver no one was paying attention to reminded you of one of the best playmakers the league has ever had. You'd be sure to include that player in your fantasy league, right? Well, you would. Dontayvion WicksADP 156. Matt LaFleur told Joe Buck and Troy Aikman last year that Wicks was comparable to Davante Adams. Okay, makes sense. At an ADP of 156? Always take a gamble when you have nothing to lose. Want more? PFF graded Wicks as the 4th best rookie WR.
Finally, before we talk a bit about the QB ADP frenzy, here's one more WR.
Everyone likes the Falcons as a breakout offense this year. Let's assume they're right. How are you going to invest? Bijan Robinson is a first-round pick. Drake London is a second-round pick. Even Kyle Pitts is a fifth- or sixth-round pick. Nobody cares about the QB. But… Darnell Mooney 16th round, 186th pick. Now, about 80% of guys taken at or after that spot get taken. So if I'm wrong on Mooney, nobody cares. Nothing's been lost. But I think Mooney will be an afterthought for defenses. And Kirk Cousins will likely take advantage of that fact. Looking at where the money is going, there was $39 million spent on Mooney, which doesn't correlate to the 186th overall pick. I'd expect him to perform 75-900-6 or something like that. Solid WR3 territory.
finally, Justin Fields will be picked 157th, ahead of Russell Wilson at 171st. I don't care about Wilson. He's not the guy I'm after. But where to draft Fields is the realm of “true genius,” flagging a low-probability event to get attention in the draft, then basking in the glory if the pick hits, which it almost certainly won't. Fields is one of the worst QBs to ever play the game, as he holds the ball the whole time and gets sacked or picked at the highest rate this century. Virtually no one has been successful after such a terrible start, especially in the past 20 years. People who draft Fields are like a coach who tells a tight end to reverse at the 1-yard line. It's the QB, guys. It's the layup position. Save your genius insight for what really matters.
(Top photo of Dontayvion Wicks: Bob Donnan – USA TODAY Sports)
