Please take a look UFC picks Saudi Arabia is our favorite long shot UFC prop bets Saturday, June 22nd.
UFC Saudi Arabia takes place on Saturday afternoon at the Kingdom Arena in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, with a preliminary card on ESPN (noon ET) followed by the main card airing on ABC at 3pm ET.
Each episode of MMA Prop Squad features several bets selected by our team of prop betting enthusiasts, who have earned +22.3 units per bet and an ROI of +5.5% over their two-year run.
As with any form of gambling, always bet within your ability. This guideline is especially important when dealing with prop bets. Props often offer attractive odds, but they are converted into cash much less frequently than standard bets. Also, prop odds can vary significantly from sportsbook to sportsbook, so be sure to shop around for the best price.
UFC Saudi Arabia fight odds as of Friday via ESPN BET. Bet on UFC using BetRivers promo code.
UFC Picks – MMA Prop Squad Predictions
Liam Heslin: Clubs and Subs Special
Contributor to The Action Network and host of Liam Picks Fights
Fighter jets exit: Approximately 12:25 p.m. ET
For my Prop Squad picks this week, I’ll be playing up two submission angles in the preliminary card bout between Magomed Gaziaslov (-370) and Brendon Ribeiro (+275).
The second bout of the afternoon will be between light heavyweights and I think we will most likely see a decision by submission, given the possibility of one fighter rocking his opponent and finishing him off with a choke followed by a “club and sub” stoppage.
I think Ribeiro has the better chance of achieving such a win between the two, so I'm going to split the bets in two: Ribeiro winning by submission, and the fight ending in a submission (either fighter winning by submission).
Riberio is particularly effective with the guillotine (finishing him four times in his career), and Gaziaslov is a striker first but is quick to switch to takedowns if things go awry, which creates submission opportunities on either side.
But now Gaziaslov faces off against the younger, bigger and more experienced Brazilian Riberio, who will likely try for submissions in transition or from his back if the fight goes to the ground.
Both fighters have the potential for a club and sub fight, with the light heavyweight having the power and the potential to overwhelm him with strikes.
By doing a little bit of line shopping and going after market outliers, I think we're taking a very strategic approach to betting on this fight from a pure numbers standpoint.
recommendation: Brendson Ribeiro wins by submission (+1300 on BetRivers) | Ribeiro vs. Magomed Gaziaslov wins by submission (+420 on BetRivers)
Tony Sartori: While you're at the top…
Action Network Contributor
Fighter exit: about12:55pm ET
Saturday's UFC Prelims feature a bantamweight bout between Kang Kyung-ho (+135) and Muin Gafurov (-160). The only reason Gafurov is sitting at -165 on the moneyline is because he's 0-3 at UFC, but don't let recent results cloud the fact that Gafurov is clearly the better fighter in this matchup.
The criticism of the bet calls into question his intelligence in the Octagon, especially after his most recent loss when he jumped into Nurmagomedov's guillotine, effectively handing the win to Nurmagomedov. Yes, that was bad, but it's also a correctable mistake.
It's much easier to fix one mental mistake than to make someone a bigger, stronger wrestler, and that's exactly why I hate this position for Kang, because when Gafurov takes this fight to the mat, there's nothing Kang can do except attempt a submission from the bottom.
Gafurov is much heavier and denser, and would likely lie on top of Kang for 15 minutes and easily win a unanimous decision. Kang's two previous losses came by losing grappling, and Gafurov's strength is no match for the underdog.
That being said, with Gafurov expected to maintain top position for the majority of the bout, I personally think betting on him to prop the submission at +1150 is the highest +EV play on the board. An unlikely outcome, but possible.
First, Gafurov has the ability to do it, boasting seven submission wins as a pro, but Kang is also a great grappler and a purple belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, so it will be difficult to contain him in any way.
However, Kang has tapped out before, so it's not out of the question. Again, I expect Gafurov to fight and hold his ground for 15 minutes en route to a decision victory, but I think a submission is more likely to occur along the way than the +1150 odds suggest.
pick: Muin Gafurov wins by submission (+1150 on BetRivers)
Clint McLean: Fade the Old Dog
He is a contributor to The Action Network and host of the Die Hard MMA Podcast.
Fighter jets exit: Approximately 2:25 p.m. ET
Jared Gordon is a 34-year-old 145-pound boxer whose best fight is a split decision win over Joe Solecki.
Gordon (+190) is in his prime now and faces off against the naturally bigger Nasrat Haqparast (-235), who also has one of the quickest handles in the division, with a 78% takedown defense.
Haqparast isn't a power player, but I think his volume and speed will pile up and make him too much for the old dog to handle.
Gordon should put up some resistance early on, but as the fight drags on, I think Nasrat will start to hurt Gordon and could force a stoppage late in the rounds. I’ll bet on two bets: Haqparast to win by KO/TKO in the second round (+750) and by KO/TKO in the third round (+1200).
Both plays will be available to watch on FanDuel.
recommendation: Nasrat Haqparast via KO in the 2nd round (+1000 on FanDuel) | Haqparast wins in the 3rd round (+1300 on FanDuel)
Dan Tom: Dirty submission play
He is a contributor to The Action Network and host of the Protect Ya' Neck podcast.
Fighter jets exit: Approximately 3:55 p.m. ET
For this week’s MMA Prop Squad post, I decided to target the main card fight between Kelvin Gastelum (-200) and Daniel Rodriguez (+170).
Even though this is definitely a “dog or pass” spot from a moneyline perspective, there is one prop that is appealing to me.
Rodriguez is known as a southpaw power hitter, but the 37-year-old also possesses surprisingly skilled front submission prowess that thrives in club and submission scenarios.
Gastelum is a tough fighter to knock out cleanly due to his durability, but even the Ultimate Fighter winner can still be taken out with a clean punch from a good striker like Rodriguez.
Add to that the fact that Gastelum has a history of calmly losing by submission, and at his current price, I have to bet a bit on Rodriguez securing a front choke in the middle of a mess.
