One of the most intriguing aspects of college football's expanded playoff is that at least one team is guaranteed to compete from the Group of Five, with the highest-ranked conference winner earning a spot in the 12-team rankings for the national championship.
Under the old College Football Playoff model, the possibility of a Group of 5 team playing in the semifinals was not a pipe dream.
More: Predicting the 2024 college football conference champions
But with this new rule in place, the races for the Mountain West, AAC, Sun Belt, MAC and Conference USA titles will be even more intriguing as the season progresses, with more at stake than usual.
Using ESPN's 134-team college football rankings as a guide, let's predict which 10 Group of Five teams are most likely to make the expanded playoffs in 2024.
Probability: 3.0%. After winning 11 games and the MAC title last year, the Redhawks have the talent to win it again. Despite losing wide receiver Greg Larbadan and running back Rashad Amos, the offense still has good receiver skill and enough defense to keep the team intact. Linebacker is a position of strength, but the secondary has room to grow.
Probability: 3.2%. The Bobcats finished runner-up to Troy in the Sun Belt West last year, beat Rice in the First Responder Bowl and enter as a favorite to win the league championship in 2024. With a strong rushing attack that boasts plenty of experience and a developing secondary unit, Texas State also brought in transfer quarterback Jordan McCloud for a big win.
Probability: 5.1%. On the surface, Troy is in rebuilding mode after losing its head coach, quarterback, leading rusher, top receiver and most of its defense. With the help of two new coordinators, Troy faces two away games at Memphis and Iowa that could either cripple or enhance Troy's long-term chances this year.
Probability: 5.9%. A year ago, the Bulldogs won nine games, including two wins against Power 5 rivals Purdue and Arizona State, both on the road. While the defense took a step back last fall, the Fresno State offense is expected to run the ball well with eight starters returning and a very solid front line led by Malik Sherrod. Current odds rank this team as the second-best team in the Mountain West.
Probability: 6.2%. The reigning AAC champions lost their head coach and starting quarterback, but will have Troy recruit John Sumrall to lead the team and Oregon transfer quarterback Ty Thompson to lead the offense. Other contenders in the Group of Five will challenge Tulane for an autobid spot, but the Green Wave should remain in the running for the AAC title all year.
Probability: 7.0%. The Mountaineers will face a tough schedule against a Sun Belt rotation that will see them win, but they will have key members of their offensive line back, including quarterback Joey Aguilar, who is a record holder in multiple categories with increased mobility and the skills to run the offense successfully as a running back and receiver. Defensively, Appalachian State has young, promising players around the line who will tire out opposing blockers.
Probability: 7.9%. The Tigers' returning offense has a lot to offer, led by quarterback Seth Hennigan, who was the fourth-best pass thrower in college football last year, along with talented receivers Lock Taylor and De'Mere Brancomesy, but Memphis' AAC championship hopes may hinge on a defense that took a step back last year, especially against the pass.
Probability: 9.6%. The return of quarterback Kaydon Salter alone gives the Flames a shot at a spot in the Group of Five in the expanded College Football Playoff. Salter had better rushing stats than most running backs last year, scoring 43 all-purpose touchdowns and rushing for 1,064 yards.
Probability: 15.6%. There are questions about whether the offensive line rotation will be permanent and the departure of Frank Harris creates a big change at quarterback, but Owen McCown brings experience. UTSA's backfield will have a productive player like Kevorian Barnes returning to help stabilize the offense, and the defense boasts reliable skill in its back-seven configuration.
Probability: 16.4%. Spencer Danielson took the head coaching job after a great interim tenure, leading the Broncos to the Mountain West League title. He returns 18 expected starters to the field this year, including tailback Ashton Jeanty, the league's leading rusher and one of the best in college football. Malachi Nelson transferred from USC and will take over at quarterback, but the defense was average against the run last year and struggled in the secondary. The game against Oregon will be big early on.
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