Last year's breakout running backs were the best. Predicting breakouts is never 100% accurate, and there have been down years, but if you add Rachad White, James Cook and Jerome Ford to the list, Clean, clean, pretty goodI hope to have similar success this year and there are some interesting names in the 2024 fantasy football season. Mind you, I am shying away from running backs who are breakouts in any way (e.g. Brian Robinson who was RB17 in FPPG last year) or rookies. Here are my top 5 breakout RBs for 2024, starting with the pretty obvious ones and ending with the deep flyers.
A newcomer and already a breakout star
- Blake Coram, LAR; Jonathan Brooks, CAR; et al Rookie — As I say every year, I believe in the idea that “nothing breaks out” fromThe argument that the rookie is not a “breakout.” You can say that if you want, because it's not an argument I want to die on. Here's why I'm not including the rookie. With Kyren Williams healing from an offseason injury, Corum getting his chance, and Brooks being the talent he is, Corum and Brooks would be the front-runners. Trey Benson is in a great position with James Conner in front of him, who gets injured every year. Plus, there are deeper options like Kimani Vidal and Tyrone Tracy.
- Devon Achain, missing — The only running backs with more FPPG than Acchane were Christian McCaffrey, Kyren Williams, and his teammate Raheem Mostert. Short of playing a full season, there's not much room left for Acchane, who was RB24 despite only playing 11 games and getting 130 touches. So, whole Acchane has the potential to break out and become a top-10 RB, but it may be tough to top his 16.3 FPPG.
- Jerome Ford, CLE — Ford was on last year’s list and remains an underrated prospect for the early 2024 draft. He filled in for Nick Chubb and was 17th in RBs with 11.1 FPPG. There’s no guarantee Chubb will be ready or 100% by Week 1, which makes Ford worth the cost. But it’s unlikely Ford would be better than that over a full season without Chubb playing a single snap. Ford’s rushing line is 204-813-4 and his receiving is 44-319-5, and even repeating those numbers with or without Chubb would be a big success.
Top 5 Breakout Running Backs
1. Zamir White, LV — Coming off the 2023 season, and with the Raiders offseason acquisitions of Alexander Mattison and Dylan Laube, White is a prime candidate for a breakout spot at running back. White went 84-397-1 on the ground and 9-60-0 on 13 targets over the final four weeks. That translates to 4.7 yards per game, 23.3 touches per game and 14.1 FPPG, good for 13th among running backs along with Rachel White and Joe Mixon. Of course, there are plenty of risks — the Raiders offense (QB situation), White's limitations in the passing game and the possibility that Mattison could take some of the job or push the role onto White if White struggles.
Still, White will get the chance first, and head coach Antonio Pierce is the “leader” of the team. If White repeats that rushing load, even if he never touches the ball as a receiver, that would be 357 carries for the entire season. It certainly could be dangerous to extrapolate a four-game sample to 17 games. But we expect a breakout, and if Pierce trusts White as the clear lead, 250 carries is a near certainty, with 20-30 receptions to be expected. Even at 4.0 yards/carry and 6.5 yards/carry, White would surpass 1,100 yards and be a nice breakout…possibly the biggest breakout we’ll see.
2. Tyjay Spears, TEN — Spears has an Austin Ekeler-type skill set, and while I wouldn’t go so far as to say he’s at his best, I wouldn’t say Spears isn’t the Titans’ most valuable running back. Spears rushed just 100 times as a rookie, but he managed 4.5 yards/carry and was 52-385-1 receiving on 70 targets. In fact, Spears was better at times than Derrick Henry, averaging higher yards/carry (4.5 vs. 4.2), slightly lower yards/carry (7.4 vs. 7.6), and not much better rushing YAC (3.15 vs. 3.32). By comparison, Tony Pollard had 4.0 yards/carry, 5.7 yards/carry, and 2.92 yards/carry. We also know that Pollard struggled with a goal-line TD percentage of just 17.6% (Spears was 33.3%).
This doesn't mean Spears is the clear leader, nor does it mean Pollard can't do 60% of the work to Spears' 40% while maintaining the same role he had last year. This just means that if Pollard struggles and Spears develops in year two, Spears has the ability and potential to finish in the top 20 as a solid time-share RB3.
3. Kendre Miller, NO — During last year's draft, I compared Miller to Jamaal Williams, which made this pick a bit puzzling since the Saints signed Williams in free agency. To say the least, Williams' production dropped off in 2022, not only did he have zero touchdowns until his final chance, but he also posted a dismal 2.9 yards per catch. Miller had just 51 touches as a rookie, 10 of which were receptions on 11 targets. Like Williams, Miller also didn't get much traction on the rush, posting 3.8 yards per catch.
On the plus side, Miller threw for 11.7 yards per pass and went 13-73-1 on the ground in his return from injury in Week 18, his best showing yet. Additionally, Miller's touchdown came from his vision, as the defense sniffed out a pitch run and cut back up the middle for a score. Miller's vision was considered a plus in college, and his patience and size to carry a heavy load make him even more likely to carve out a timeshare with Alvin Kamara. In fact, Miller's ceiling is a timeshare power lead like Damien Harris, David Montgomery, or Jamaal Williams, which would put him in the RB2 group if he were a lead option.
4. Chase Brown, CIN — Zack Moss turns 27 in December. It's hard to believe, and he's certainly been pretty good when given the chance. Moss is not without flaws, having posted 3.89 yards per yard or lower in six of his 15 games with 13 or more carries (and 3.17 yards per yard or lower in three games), a decent but not great passing game, and injury-plagued stretches in his short career.
To be fair, Brown doesn't have “elite” running back talent either, but he does have the speed and receiving ability on the edge. His pre-draft comparison last year was Matt Breida, who isn't going to knock you off your chair, but Brown went 44-179-0 rushing (4.1 per yard) and 14-156-1 receiving (11.1 per yard, 15 targets) as a rookie. Brown's 54-yard dump-off pass against the Colts also showed his sneaky speed. Brown's talent and timeshare to potentially do more receiving than Moss puts him in breakout camp already. With Moss out, a breakout is almost guaranteed and top-20 value is well within reach.
5. Jaleel McLaughlin, Denver — McLaughlin has the most competition on this list, joining Javonte Williams, Samaje Perine and rookie Audric Estime. Williams struggled in his return from injury, averaging just 3.6 yards per carry and often being a far cry from his pre-injury self. Perine was good at times, filling in for Joe Mixon with the Bengals and then thriving with the Broncos last year. In fact, Perine had a career-high of 9.1 yards per carry last year. Estime is a powerful back and his addition complicates things, but there's a path for McLaughlin to rise to the top in both the backfield hierarchy and fantasy value.
McLaughlin has a cut-and-go style, good speed and evasiveness, and he has the ability to do that in the passing game, but his vision and inconsistency in blocking are concerns. He led the Broncos in YPC last year with 5.4. He had some evasive runs against the Bears, a touchdown reception, and showed patience in the open field. The battle for touches isn't the only concern, and McLaughlin may not get much goal-line work if he does get a two-man timeshare. Still, McLaughlin would be ranked higher on this list if there was only one other running back he had to deal with, because he's the Broncos' most explosive option and arguably has the ceiling of an RB2.
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